After a successful 2025 season, let’s fire up the NFL Projection Model and see where the value stands this week. There’s a lot on the board as it stands now so the lines don’t get away from us.
First, for clarity, let’s look at how we did last year and beyond since I posted the best bets on the site since 2021.
2025 record: 41-29, +9.77 units, +12.8% ROI
General record: 184-164-8, +7.21 units, +1.9% ROI
For more on my model and its predictions, see NFL Playoffs.
How to use the new NFL Playoff Simulator
Austin Mock
The card below is not final, as you will need to check back for added plays during the week. I’ll make sure to post on X (@amock419) for any modification to the card. The best bet is to win one unit against the favorites or risk one unit against the Dogs unless otherwise stated. As always, shop around for the best price. Good luck to us!
Week 2 NFL best bets
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 40.5 (-115)
Like I said above, buy here, but this is the best price in the market and I don’t know how long it will last. The Bucs moved the ball well last week and should be able to do so again as long as they hold the football. Personally, I think the Browns defense may be the most overrated in the market after Myles Garrett’s departure. Of course, Deshaun Watson will start on the other side and the Browns’ scoring may be a problem, but I think they should be able to do enough to get to the window.
The worst value for a bet is: Over 41 (-115)
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens under 47.5 (-115)
The Ravens will have Zay Flowers and Jacoby Lane at receiver, which means we should get a steady amount of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the running game. That means the clock is ticking a bit. Now, since the Saints don’t have a great defensive line, I expect the Ravens to have more success on the ground, but I think that number should be under 47.
The worst value for a bet is: Under 47 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots under 41.5 (-107)
Two solid defenses and no AJ Brown? It looks like a game that ends in the 30s. I don’t like the Patriots team that isn’t brown on the field and I’m not sure where the explosive plays directly for the Patriots offense. On the other side of the ball, I can’t see Aaron Rodgers having a good time on this Patriots defense. He wants to get the ball out quickly and I think the Pats defensive line will be disruptive. A quick short throw and an explosive offense? Give me root.
The worst value for a bet is: Under 41.5 (-115)
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs under 47.5 (-115)
Sure, maybe Kenneth Walker III will show up and blow the max in this game. This is possible because the Colts defense is not good, especially in the front seven. But have you seen the Chiefs relay game? It’s not explosive and I’m not sure it will be anytime soon. They still have some work to do on the ball side. On the other side of the ball, we saw Steve Spagnolo put Bo Nix in a blender on Monday Night Football. Again, another root that I don’t think should be more than 47 overall.
The worst value for a bet is: Under 47 (-110)
