The only thing that is clear when talking about the championship contenders is that Kyle Larson is firmly established as the no. 1 me two wins in the first four races of The Chase.
Larson’s victory and maximum points at Kansas on Sunday put a huge gap between him and most of the field.
There are only three drivers within a race worth points (76). So not all drivers in the top 10 of this list are considered to have a good shot.
Here are my rankings of the competitors heading into the fifth race of The Chase, which takes place next Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
For those still in at least somewhat legitimate contention, we’ll also give a bit of a Vegas perspective.
On the threshold (alphabetical order):
Chris Buescher (RFK Racing No. 17 Ford, -186 points behind the leader): A 23rd-place finish in Kansas (partly due to damage from a wreck during Stage 2) has left him with mathematical hope, but only that for the title.
William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet, -158): Byron finished seventh and earned nine points in the stage, but is more than two full races behind his teammate Kyle Larson.
Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet, -161): An eighth-place finish and just three points in the Kansas stage was crushing his championship hopes.
Carson Hocevar (Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet, -150): Being involved in a crash during stage 2 eliminated Hocevar from any shot at the title.
Ryan Preece (RFK Racing No. 60 Ford, -173): Preece was 10th at Kansas and his top priority should be consistent 10s the rest of the way.
Daniel Suarez (Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet, -187): Suarez was 14th at Kansas, but at least he knew he was going home to his new son.
Ranking of competitors
Cindric finished second and earned 17 points at Kansas for a great day. He still lost 24 points to the leader. At this point, he’s probably thinking that finishing in the top 10 in points is a good goal. Unfortunately for Cindric, he has never finished in the top five in Las Vegas and was 19th in the spring race at the track.
9.
Wallace was injured in the crash during stage 2 and rallied to finish ninth. But with no points on the stage, it meant he lost 48 points to Larson, dashing any title hopes. He has just one career top five in Vegas and was ninth in the spring.
8.
Reddick needed some tweaks to his car for an 11th place finish. Like his teammate Wallace, he lost significant ground to Larson by 50 points. The struggle is real. He has two top-fives and five top-10s in nine Next Gen races in Las Vegas, but was 13th in the spring.
7.
Gibbs finished 17th at Kansas, a place where he really needed at least one top 10 to somehow keep pace with the leaders. He has a best finish of fifth (twice) in Las Vegas, including the race last spring.
6.
A fifth-place finish at Kansas was strong, but he still lost 39 points to Larson. He can win it back, but he’ll need others to be in trouble while he gets some wins. He has just one Next Gen top five in Vegas and that was third in 2024 and was 16th in the spring.
5.
Logano followed his victory at Bristol with a 20th place finish as he had a tire problem late in the race. He lost 51 points to Larson in a big move. But Vegas is a good track for Logano, where he has two Next Gen wins. But his last three races were a 15th, a sixth and another 15th.
4.
Briscoe has virtually no title shot. He lost another 36 points to Larson despite finishing fourth. But he is the only driver who can win the next two races based on his intermediate speed. So maybe this can give him some hope. Vegas? It’s a solid track for him, one where he has a fourth and an eighth in his last two starts.
3.
Bell was sixth at Kansas and lost 33 points to Larson. But you can’t count him out, because like his teammates Briscoe and Hamlin, he has the potential to shock wins. Bell has four poles in the nine Next Gen races in Las Vegas and has three top fives in the last four races there, including a third a year ago and a fourth in the spring.
2.
Hamlin is down but not out. He finished third at Kansas and lost 25 points to the leader. The good news for Hamlin? He has won the last two races in Las Vegas and led 134 laps there on his way to victory in the spring. He will be the favorite and his championship hopes could take a significant turn next Sunday.
1.
The winner of two of the last three races knows he can run away quickly. But he also knows he has significantly reduced the number of legitimate title contenders. And he’s great in Vegas. He has won there twice and finished second in the nine Next Gen races at the track. He finished second a year ago (leading 129 laps) and was seventh this spring (leading 62 laps).
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Kyle Larson took his second win in The Chase. And even though he leads the pack in points, he’s not getting too comfortable.
