Mike Tomlin has no qualms about a Dan Campbell decision that may have seemed curious on the surface.
Facing fourth-and-one from the Detroit 24 with 4:53 to play, Campbell elected to go for it. The play resulted in a loss of two yards and a very short field for the Packers.
“I thought we were going to get it, number one,” Campbell said after the game. “I really believed we were going to make it. Number two, me we knew we were going to turn the ball over if it didn’t work. Those were the two thoughts.”
After Sunday night’s Chiefs-Seahawks game, NBC’s Mike Tirico asked Tomlin about Campbell’s decision.
“It centers around elite quarterback play“When you play elite quarterback, and especially when you play elite quarterback, you want to make sure your guy at least has a chance to have the ball at the end of the game. And that decision seemed to be for me. If he hits that ball like Jordan Love and company did, it’s not possible, they’re likely to field the ball and win the game. And so what he did going for it, he was either going to be successful and would hold the ball for his quarterback, or at least give his quarterback an opportunity to respond. I was always ready to make that decision when I had Big Ben (Roethlisberger), for example, and I was facing another elite quarterback.”
The Lions got the ball back because their defense stiffened, forcing a punt. And because Detroit’s special teams unit blocked the 35-yard attempt.
But even if the Packers would have scored a touchdown, the drive began with 4:50 to play. The Lions would have had a chance to respond.
And that’s only if the Lions first down failed to gain a yard on fourth down by handing off to Jahmyr Gibbs.
It’s another tangible example of the key differences between analytics and sentiment. The coach, considering all the circumstances, knew it was the right call.
That said, the age of analytics has made it much easier to do something that would once have been dismissed as unconventional, as the reliance on math has broken down the wall between what is and isn’t “normal” for a coach.
And Tomlin’s past actions lend his words even more credence. Per NBC Sports research, Campbell was the first coach to have a fourth down inside his own 25 in a tie game since Week 1 of the 2014 season.
That day, Tomlin’s Steelers ran a fake punt from their own 20 in a 27-27 game against the Browns. It happened with 9:48 to play in a 27-27 game. The play worked, the drive later stalled at the 50 and the Steelers won by a field goal, 30-27.
