Hull, Coventry and Ipswich already have 24 points between them after six games, so talk is starting to shift from the pre-season atmosphere of whether the three newly-promoted clubs will be relegated, to which familiar Premier League names could be in the squad for survival.
Newly promoted Premier League sides have often struggled to bridge the gap, with two consecutive seasons of 23/24 and 24/25 seeing all three newcomers relegated before Leeds and Sunderland helped buck that trend last season.
However, the lessons teams are learning is that survival is possible when a promoted team gets the right recruitment, organization and mindset.
Hull and Ipswich both now have nine points each, Coventry, after beating Newcastle 4-1, are on six.
No club newly promoted to the Premier League since 95/96 with at least 10 points after their first six games has subsequently been relegated (nine teams achieved that amount of points). The last nine newly promoted teams to take nine or more points from their first six games have all survived, which bodes well for Hull and Ipswich.
Coventry’s emphatic win over Newcastle on Monday night was particularly significant. Frank Lampard’s team had started the season with four defeats and no goals, but two consecutive victories have transformed the situation around the club.
Ipswich, meanwhile, showed the kind of consistency that can make the difference over a 38-game season, grabbing a dramatic late win against Fulham. Hull have also put together a surprising run of results, showing they can compete and pick up points against established opposition in the top flight.
The standing of three promoted clubs would mean three more teams have to take their place, of course, potentially putting a supposedly safe mid-table club or a big-name team in real danger.
Hull, Ipswich and Coventry are currently outside the relegation zone and early evidence suggests this is not simply a case of a promoted side riding a wave of momentum.
There is a collective challenge to the established order going on here.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League clash between Coventry City and Newcastle United
Watch for early warning signs.
Fulham, Tottenham and Bournemouth fill the bottom three at the minute and are without a win after six games, while, like Bournemouth, Sunderland have a European campaign to negotiate and have just one win over Fulham on the board this season.
Aston Villa and Newcastle are going through big seasons of transition and the bookies have Manchester City third favorites for relegation with the possibility of points being dropped in the table after the Premier League’s independent commission found City in breach of Premier League financial rules – City have denied wrongdoing and lodged an appeal.
The danger is that poor form and the increased workload from potential European engagements could quickly turn into a crisis when confidence runs out and pressure starts to mount. The early sight of relegation already suggests some established sides have reason to worry.
With Hull, Coventry and Ipswich refusing to follow script, nobody should assume the three pre-season relegation favorites will go down.
The equation of decline has certainly changed.
