It’s always a popular question – or series of questions – long my friday live streams on NBC’s NFL YouTube Channel: Which slot receivers have the best matchups? And which external openings (borders) are in good spots?
While it shouldn’t be the deciding factor in how you make your weekly lineup decisions, knowing whether a pass catcher has a particularly good or bad matchup is valuable information that can sometimes serve as a hindrance to your more vexing starting-down decisions.
This season I’ll use this space to break down the best (and worst) matchups for pass catchers who operate from the slot and those who line up primarily on the edge. Some pass catchers, as you know, split their time between the boundary and the slot, making this little exercise more complicated. I’ll do my best to identify the most attractive (and unattractive) weekly matchups and what they might mean for your weekly starting landing decisions.
Slot games
Browns vs. Saints
Shedeur Sanderswith whom he will start this week Deshaun Watson in the league’s concussion protocol, is functionally the same as Watson, according to the charts. Last year Sanders was as inaccurate and happy as Watson. I don’t foresee much change for Cleveland’s pass catchers in Week 9 unless Sanders collapses. I think this is always in the range of results.
The Saints are an increasingly good match for the slot guys. Here that will include both Harold Fannin (40 percent slot rate) and KC Concepcion (66 percent slot rate). No team allows a higher than expected completion rate on spot kicks, and ten defenses allow a higher EPA per spot pass. Since Week 5, the Saints have given up 28.5 expected fantasy points per game to the passing slot, the fourth-highest mark in the league during that span.
Look for Fannin, who saw a target on 27 percent of his routes in 2025 with Sanders at QB, to continue his hot play. Fannin over the last two weeks ranks fourth in expected fantasy points per game among tight ends. He is cooking.
Cowboys vs. Colts
Ryan Flournoy could be an interesting flex game against a Colts secondary that has bled fantasy production for pass catchers through Week 8. Indy gives up the league’s eighth-highest EPA for slot pass attempts, and only three defenses have allowed more receiving yards on slot targets in 2026.
Flournoy runs about half of his routes from the slot. Over his last four games he has seen a target on 18 percent of his routes. That’s not half bad considering Flournoy has to compete for football with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Colts vs. Cowboys
On the other side of this game we have Josh Downs running from the slot at a 70 percent rate and facing a Dallas secondary giving up the fifth-highest EPA in targeted pass attempts (and being targeted via the slot at a high rate, as you can see in the chart above).
The problem for Downs is that Keenan Allen — Our Millennium King — has established himself as the clear WR1 in the Indy offense. Allen is seeing a target on 28 percent of his routes; Downs is at 18 percent on the season. Downs is in a good spot, though: Only three defenses allow more expected fantasy points per game on slot picks than the Cowboys, and no team has allowed more receiving yards to slot passers.
Patriots vs. Packers
DeMario Douglas it’s been kind of fun for fantasy managers with AJ Brown aside. That probably ends this week against a Green Bay secondary giving up the NFL’s lowest adjusted yards per attempt to set up a receiver.
The Seahawks and Vikings are the only two defenses allowing a lower expected fantasy point per game for guys. The Packers have given up just 350 yards on slot throws all season. That’s … too low. Watch out for Pop Douglas this week.
Border matches
Lions vs Dolphins
Jameson Williams is once again in a great situation as the Lions get a secondary in Miami allowing the highest rate of fantasy points per target to receivers lined up on the edge.
Jamo has been hot lately, and the passing yards should continue apace against the Dolphins barring some kind of freak game scenario (which could happen in such an ambiguous affair). The Dolphins this season have given up the seventh-highest EPA pass attempt on field goals. Even if Jamo doesn’t see a bunch of sights here, he can easily make your day fantastic.
Planes vs. Bosses
Kansas City’s secondary has been the studs all season. Maybe you know that if at some point you were to get cool and start a massive battle against the Bosses. This, in my experience, has not been fun.
So this is my warning not to get too excited and follow Adonai MitchellWeek 7 blowout against the nasty Raiders. Chiefs this season ditch the EPA’s lowest border crossing efforts. Only four defenses allow a lower rate of fantasy points for the border target. There’s no doubt that the KC secondary closes wide openings on the edge (as well as the slot guys, to a slightly lesser extent). Mitchell will have to make the most of his air yards if he’s going to make it as a WR3 this week.
Bucs vs. Bears
The following analysis assumes, of course, that the Bucs will throw more than a few passes this week and maybe even one against Chicago. We can’t assume anything.
The Bears defense has proven susceptible to outside receivers this year. No defense, in fact, has allowed a higher fantasy point per target to pass catchers through Week 8. Chicago allows the eighth-highest EPA on pass rushers. While they have been stingy against the slot, teams have found success from the outside.
This should benefit Ted Hurst here, especially if Emeka Egbuka remains aside. The speedy Hurst has accounted for 29 percent of the air yards on the season as the Bucs’ primary downfield threat. Hurst has a pretty high 64 percent prayer yardage rate on the season — meaning unconverted air yards — so a little positive regression isn’t out of the question in Week 9.
