We’ve had two massive winning weekends in a row in the NFL, why not make it three? Here are my best bets for Sunday and Monday in NFL Week 9. Game odds courtesy of DraftKings. I wish you luck!
Bengals (-3.5) vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5
The Bengals and Falcons kick off in Madrid, Spain at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, so set your alarm clocks aka your phones! This should be a fantastic matchup, and I’m looking to Atlanta’s offense for a comeback spot. Last week against Tampa Bay, the Falcons lost in a monsoon like Michael Penix threw four interceptions as Atlanta’s defense was slaughtered. In sunny weather, we should expect Falcons to be seen night and day.
The Bengals are on a three-game winning streak over Miami, Baltimore and Tennessee. Cam Ward threw for 304 yards and a touchdown, plus Tony Pollard ran for 117 yards and two scores at the Bengals. The Bengals’ four wins have all come against teams with losing records so far, while the Falcons have shown their potential with wins over Green Bay and San Francisco. I still think the Falcons have the highest ceiling in the NFC South. I will lower the +3.5 to +3.
Select: Falcons +3.5 (1 unit)
Giants (-3) at Eagles: O/U 38.5
For the first time since November 1, 2009, the New York Giants are the favorites in Philadelphia, and that’s no mistake. Things are so bad during the Eagles’ six-game losing streak that they’re sitting on the bench Tanner McKee in favor of Joe Milton. Philadelphia has a bye week, so they are 100 percent trying to see what they have before deciding on their goals for the second half of the season.
If the Eagles lose this game, they’re out for the season after the start of Week 11, but I don’t care about that desperation because they haven’t had any momentum amid all the injuries. The Giants, on the other hand, are in first place in the division, coming off a week off an impressive 27-21 OT win over Houston. New York has found something with JJ McCarthyand if Cam Tax House AND Malik Nabers are bought like against Houston (232 combined yards), then there’s me. I like Giants -3.
Select: Giants -3 (1 unit)
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Packers at Patriots (-3): O/U 44.5
Green Bay averages a league-high 81.7% of their yards through the air, and 65.7% of their plays are passes. At some point, the regression has to hit and the backfield becomes more reliable. Josh Jacobs is starting to turn the wheels of regression, but as we’ve seen in two games, it can take time.
This matchup will be interesting as New England has the third highest man coverage (29%). Love has completed 51% of his passes against the man (25th) for 6.2 yards per attempt (6.2). Love has faced a ton of bad defenses this season, and New England certainly isn’t bad. Christian Watson it’s a move, so I expect a lot of passes, but 37.5 is still steep despite Love having thrown 41 more times in three straight.
I will sell with lots of love and also go down Matthew Golden‘s 68.5 receiving yards. Last week, Watson was very active before suffering an injury that opened the door for Golden to sneak up on his yard post. Golden has passed for yards in three of his last four games and has seen 12 more targets in three straight. However, Golden ranks 66th in target separation against man coverage and climbing Christian Gonzalez AND Carlton Davis III it won’t be easy. I am submitting to both love and Golden.
The choices: Jordan Love Under 37.5 Passing Attempts (1 unit), Matthew Golden Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (1 unit)
Cardinals at Seahawks (-8.5): O/U 39.5
Last week I lost Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 101.5 receiving yards in garbage time, but you better believe I’m getting it back. JSN has been nothing short of spectacular. If the season ends today, he’s the offensive player of the year. JSN leads the league in receiving yards (985) and receiving touchdowns (9). He has four straight 100-yard games and seven of eight on the season, but I’m going Under.
Arizona is traded Jacoby Brissett away and will roll with Gardner Minshew meanwhile. Sam Darnold is out for Seattle, so Drew Lock will step up. Fortunately for Lock, Seattle’s backfield is more crowded than ever and ready to assist. The Jadarian Prize AND Zach Charbonnet both returned in the last two weeks, plus George Holland AND Emmanuel Wilson are capable rears.
Arizona has lost 10 straight to Seattle, and after last week’s sellout, I could see the Seahawks turning around and working on their ground game. In Week 2 against Arizona with Lock at quarterback, Seattle ran the ball 40 times and threw it 26. JSN caught 155 of Lock’s 235 yards (11 targets). Funny, but we could see a similar result here in game calls, limiting JSN output.
Select: Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 94.5 receiving yards (1 drive)
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Buccaneers at Bears (-6): O/U 47.5
Baker Mayfield has had the easiest job in the NFL over the past two weeks. Mayfield has thrown 14 passes in the last two games. Against Atlanta, Mayfield and the Bucs became the first quarterback/team to not complete a pass since September 29, 1974! Mayfield went 0-for-3 and we might not see that happen for another 50 years.
However, the good days are over. Welcome to the recent times, Baker. You’re in Chicago against a white Bears team with defensive additions from trades and guys coming back from injury. Mayfield won’t have the freedom to hand the ball off to his talented defenders, as he has done literally over 100 times in the last two games. I like all of Mayfield’s Overs this week, but my favorites are the tries. Chicago leads the NFL in time of possession, so Mayfield will have to make his possessions count, and the Bears allow big plays through the air, so I’d expect Mayfield to make some shots down the field.
Select: Baker Mayfield over 29.5 pass attempts (1 unit)
Bills (-3) at Vikings: O/U 43.5
Carson Wentz will start for the vikings as Kyler Murray deals with an injured navel. Minnesota is coming off its first loss of the season, 19-15 to the Lions. Buffalo was out of reach for a blowout game against Baltimore, but due to two quarterback injuries, the Bills ended up beating the Ravens 36-10 in a game Buffalo never put away. Buffalo gets two backup quarterbacks from the week before as they go for their fourth straight win. I love the odds that happen.
Buffalo leads the NFL in points per drive (3.07), and Minnesota is first in points allowed per drive (1.18). The Bills have been involved in the highest scoring games and the Vikings the fewest. It’s a matchup of offense vs. defense, but I think the offense will win. Minnesota has allowed two touchdowns since Week 2, but they’ve played Baker Mayfield, Malik Willis, Tyler Shough, Daniel Jonesand then Jared Goff last week. Josh Allen it’s on a different planet than those guys. I will gladly take the Buffalo -3. I would go out at -5.5.
Select: Bills -3 (1 unit)
Week 9 picks
1 unit: Falcons +3.5 (-120)
1 unit: Giants -3 (-110)
1 unit: Bills -3 (-115)
1 unit: Baker Mayfield over 29.5 pass attempts (-111)
1 unit: Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 94.5 receiving yards (-113)
1 unit: Jordan Love Under 37.5 Pass Attempts (-101)
1 unit: Matthew Golden under 68.5 receiving yards (-110)
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