The schedule gives that sentence a sharp edge. Sabalenka opens the day’s session at the Arthur Ashe Stadium against Czech No. 6 Linda Noskovabefore the men’s All-American quarterfinals Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen. Pegula plays American Emma Navarro first, in the evening session, forward Ben Shelton meets Carlos Alcaraz.
Gauff against Mirra Andreeva and: Zheng vs. Rybakina are postponed until Wednesday.
Sabalenka
No. 1, 8575 ago
7005 now
Defending 2000 from last year’s title.
Rybakina
No. 2, 8141 ago
8331 now
Defending 240
Pegula
No. 3, 7265 ago
6915 now
Protecting 780
Goof
No. 4, 6704 ago
6894 now
Defending 240
Sabalenka’s 99 weeks may be over before she knows who is finishing them
Entering the quarterfinals, Sabalenka scored 7005 points and Rybakina scored 8331 points. These two numbers determine the first part. If Sabalenka loses to Noskova on Tuesday, she will remain on 7,005, one short of Rybakina’s total even if she loses her own quarter-final.
The top seed will retire from the rankings the moment she leaves the court, holding the position from October 21, 2024, a run that reaches 99 consecutive weeks in this fortnight and is the sixth-longest in WTA history.
What he won’t know is who is replacing him. That answer will still depend on Wednesday’s quarterfinals and Saturday’s champion, neither of which he will play a part in.
Rybakina’s floor is high enough to survive a loss
Beating Zheng and Rybakina is over. the semi-final takes her to 8,681 points, more than Sabalenka could have won the title, and more than anything Pegula or Gauff could achieve.
Loses to Zheng and he remains at 8331, still surviving Sabalenka’s 7875 in the final, Pegula’s 7785 in the final, and Gauff’s 7764 in the final. Only the cup is worth it to pass. Sabalenka’s champion is 8575, Pegula’s champion is 8485, Gauff’s champion is 8.
Which leaves a result that no one appreciated. If Zhen beats Rybakina and the title goes to Noskova, Navarro, Andreeva or Zheng herself, Rybakina becomes world No. 1 with a knockout in the last eight.
Two features of the draw further narrow it down. Sabalenka and Pegula are both in the top half and will meet in the semi-finals if they go out on Tuesday, so only one of them can make the final at all. Gauff is in Rybakina’s half-court, meaning her path to the title goes through Andreeva and then whoever survives Wednesday.
I dissociate myself completely from it because it is just a guess
None of the directors will make the money. “I completely disassociate myself from it, because it’s just a guess,” Sabalenka said Defeating Taylor Townsend 6-4, 6-3 in the fourth round. “It’s like if, if, if, if. There’s always different statistics that social media brings, so I just try to stay away from that.”
ybakina, who reached her first US Open quarterfinals beating Naomi Osaka 6-1, 6-4 and did not drop any sets, gave the same answer from the other side. “The No. 1 rating is certainly one of the goals. But for me, the main focus for the team is to win titles and then the ranking will follow.”
Standing between him and the top seed on Wednesday is the 121st-ranked player, who came through the qualifiers, recovered from 0-5 in each of his last two matches to beat six-time major champion Iga Sviatek 7-5, 6-3 to reach here.
Zheng, an Olympic champion and former world No. 4 whose ranking collapsed after elbow surgery, has already moved back into the top 50 for two weeks with a win on Wednesday that moved him into the top 15. “The reality is you’re only 125 years old,” he said. “Don’t be so high on yourself.”
