Welcome to Week 1 of another new NFL Survivor Pool Season!
The timing of this year’s frenzy couldn’t be better: As the long holiday weekend ends — in the United States, anyway — we only have to wait two days for real football. The opening slate features a total of 16 games. After playing a pretty standard preseason schedule, a lot of questions remain unanswered. Not to worry, we’re here to help!
Let’s go over our general strategy for Week 1, then dive into the chalk and counter picks.
NFL survivor pool strategy
Renee: My advice for Week 1 is the same every year: Make it to Week 2 — don’t prove how good you are by blurting out an obvious favorite. can Have a great week 12 game.
Most of us are pretty good at evaluating individual NFL players in real life or fantasy football, but we make a lot of mistakes when evaluating team offenses and defenses this early in the season. That said, what we thought was a piece of postseason cake could be incredibly difficult in the coming months.
Did you notice the 2025 Seattle Seahawks as juggernauts on both sides of the ball last September? me either. So we learn as we go, but we still have to start somewhere, right?
For me, that comes back to individual talent. Some teams have more than others, and I stay away from teams with less proven success, less chemistry (between players and coaches), and more uncontrollable variables (like weather and time zones on the road). Of course, that’s all baked into the betting lines, the North Star for any surviving player — and both of my Week 1 picks are good betting favorites. I’ll explain why they’re my favorite below.
Can the Seahawks fend off the Rams in the NFC West?
Andrew Destin
Adam: I totally agree with Renee. Just get to next week.
There are a handful of teams that I can comfortably believe will either be really, really good or really, really bad at the start of any given season. Every other team is in the middle ground where we wait a few weeks to see how competitive or pretentious they are.
There are a few matches. Simple To remove from your wish list. They’re not taking the Bills or Texans in Houston with a 1.5-point favorite in Buffalo. They’re not taking on the Seattle Seahawks or the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch. They’re not taking on the Kansas City Chiefs or Denver Broncos in the AFC West’s ironclad matchup.
But it’s not just powerhouse teams or contenders that should be out of contention this week. Are you really comfortable in a battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Atlanta Falcons with new coaches and new systems? The Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders will likely be teams you’ll want to stop and face as the season goes on. I’m not rolling that dice. And neither should you.
You’re not winning your pool this week, but you could lose it (or risk buying yourself back if your pool allows it).
Don’t be afraid to be boring this week.
Selection of lime leftovers
Adam: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals
If you’ve read this column over the past few seasons, you know I’m not a big believer in anything the Chargers sell each season. It’s hard to buy into the hype of the season year after year, watch them fall short and still believe the new season will be different.
This season, they’re one of those wild-card teams with a lot of unanswered variables — but that’s part of what makes Week 1 so utterly boring to me. I’m not sure what to expect from the Chargers in the next 16 games, especially what it might be The best class in footballSo I don’t mind “saving” them for a later match. I also like the possibility of them taking care of business with an Arizona team that could rival Miami and Cleveland’s worst record of the season.
Not only do the Chargers have a huge quarterback advantage with Justin Herbert, but I don’t see Jacoby Brissett’s offense doing much against Jim Harbaugh’s defense, especially with No. 3 overall pick Jeremiah Love likely to be less than 100 percent for the Cardinals (assuming the rookie plays running back). There aren’t many “must win” games every week in the NFL. This is a “must win” game.
Renee: Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Big betting favorites are not sure things for me. Am I happy with the new system the Chargers are using? Yes. Do I think this could be the year the Jacksonville Jaguars finally put it together from the get go? Yes. Am I betting my Survivorship on both? Not this week.
I want proven success in individual talent, lots of chemistry and health across the board. Lions include all four. They have two of the league’s most electric offensive playmakers in Jahmir Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The supporting cast leads many other NFL teams in titles. And while Jared Goff may be the football equivalent of vanilla ice cream — boring but often better than you’d expect — he’s led this team to two NFC North championships in the last three years.
The glaring weakness is the offensive line: young and without their starting center. That worries me in a tougher matchup, but the Saints defense isn’t going to scare me, especially in Detroit. Their D-line has suffered its own injuries this preseason, which Gibbs in particular should take advantage of.
The last part is the destruction of the saints. Tyler Shaw flashed enough last season to give fantasy Chris Olave, Juan Johnson and Travis Etienne some hope, but this is a Tier 1 vs. Tier 2-3 offensive matchup all day long. Skill and experience make the Lions an easy Week 1 win.
Opposite survivor pool choices
Renee: Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If, for whatever reason, you decide you want to “save” one of the big favorites for a juicier matchup down the road, this matchup could go into something else by then, I’ll give you the Bengals. When you’re healthy, you can beat anyone in the league. They confirmed it. Joe Burrow was at full strength during the summer and his receiving corps is good to go.
This is another team with talent, continuity and health in all three questions against an opponent at home.
The Bucs have changed things up and retooled some on defense with the loss of Mike Evans. The biggest factor on offense will be how healthy Emeka Egbuka will be on Sunday. Chris Godwin is aging well, but the Bussies have hope in the young receivers they’ve accumulated over the past two years. I’m an Egbuka fan, but the Bucs are going to come out on top in this match.
If you want to go more contrarian while staying safe (Cincinnati is expected to be selected in 1-2 percent of pools), the Bengals are the team for me. Their upcoming schedule is filled with matchups that could be very easy or very difficult – see: Tennessee, Jacksonville and New Orleans – in addition to their division opponents, so there’s no strong incentive to save them. I mean, I wouldn’t even take that much of a risk in week 1.
Adam: Dallas Cowboys over the New York Giants
I can see this being one of those scary matchups, and while I wouldn’t push this as your top pick for the week, I can put together an argument against taking the Cowboys.
Dallas is one of those middle-of-the-pack teams that could see the season go in a variety of different ways with multiple results, and the playoffs are always risky choices. The Giants have some hope with the hiring of John Harbaugh, Jackson Dart in Year 2 and the return of Malik Nabers, but the roster still has plenty of holes and question marks. There’s also this fact: When Harbaugh coached in Baltimore, his teams were just 7-14 as underdogs. That’s not great, and it puts him in the bottom-half of the league with a roster that’s consistently better than this one.
I’m not sure Dallas is the team we should be rooting for in the postseason, but outside of Week 8 against Arizona, there aren’t many clear-cut games where the Cowboys are the heavy favorites.
