No. 5 Ohio State goes on the road for the first time since its loss to then-No. 1 Texas, traveling to Kinnick Stadium to face No. 14 Iowa in this week’s Big Noon Kickoff game.
Mississippi State is no longer dormant, and quarterback Kamario Taylor has played his way into the Heisman conversation, leading the Bulldogs to No. 16 in the AP poll. This week, the stage is bigger than ever as Mississippi State hosts No. 7 Alabama in Starkville.
Those matchups top a slate filled with conference and playoff implications, but there are five sleeper games worth watching — and betting on — in Week 4 of college football.
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SPREAD: Penn State -2.5
Perspective: The Nittany Lions fell out of the Top 25 and saw their undefeated season end with a 24-20 loss to Wisconsin. The upside for Penn State is that everything is still ahead, but the road doesn’t get any easier from here and the pressure is on. Penn State was held to three points in the second half as quarterback Rocco Becht finished with fewer than 125 yards passing for the fourth time in his career.
Northwestern nearly joined Oklahoma State in pulling off one of the year’s most surprising upsets. A failed onside kick attempt ended the Wildcats’ upset bid against No. 6 Indiana. The Wildcats held the Hoosiers to a season-low 29 points, but gave up 271 yards. Quarterback Aiden Chiles threw for 293 yards, the second most of his career, and completed 75% of his passes for a loss.
Playoff Implications: If Northwestern can have the defending champs on the edge of their seats until the final minute on the road, the Wildcats can definitely give Penn State a fight until the last second. The Nittany Lions can’t let the Wildcats hang around and keep this game close because that’s where the danger lies. If Matt Campbell wants to get Penn State back into the playoff conversation, the Nittany Lions need to run the table.
SPREAD: Virginia Tech -3
Perspective: These undefeated ACC teams begin under the lights Friday night, and the winner could make their first appearance in next week’s Top 25.
Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel made history last week with his second game of the season with at least six touchdowns. He became the first quarterback in ACC history to accomplish the feat and the first FBS player to do so since 2021. Heintschel ranks third in the ACC in passing yards with 1,191 and second in passing yards with 13. Those numbers can be deceiving if you’re just looking at the stat sheet. In two games against Power 4 opponents, the Pitt quarterback has zero tackles, one interception and just 335 passing yards. In two games against non-Power 4 opponents, he has 956 passing yards and 13 touchdowns.
James Franklin has already accomplished something at Virginia Tech that hasn’t happened since 2017: starting a 4-0 season. The Hokies moved to 4-0 after rescuing Boston College with a 21-14 win, thanks in large part to Jeffrey Overton Jr.’s performance. Overton broke free for a 76-yard touchdown run, giving the Hokies the lead and helping him finish with a career-high 209 yards.
Playoff Implications: After Louisville’s loss to Wake Forest, the ACC’s chances of sending a team other than Miami to the CFP became much slimmer. The ACC’s next highest-ranked team is SMU at No. 21. Pitt and Virginia Tech are two of the four remaining undefeated teams in the conference, and after this week, only three will remain.
SPREAD: USC -9.5
Perspective: The hype around the Trojans has suddenly gone with the wind after their 41-24 loss to No. 15 Oregon. Now, the talk and murmurs surrounding coach Lincoln Riley’s tenure at USC are heating up, but that narrative could change with plenty of season left to play. The Trojans still have Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA on the schedule, but first, they have to take care of Washington. With senior quarterback Jayden Maiava leading the offense, the Trojans can be in every game. Maiava still leads the nation in passing yards (1,499) and passing yards (14).
Head coach Jedd Fisch and Washington suffered their first loss of the season against Minnesota, and their road to the CFP just got a lot tougher. The Huskies went 1-for-10 on third down and rushed for just 40 yards in the loss, and the running game has been a problem for them all year. Washington averages the second fewest runs per game in the Big Ten (107.3). It’s never a good sign when your quarterback is your team’s leading rusher, and that’s what Demond Williams Jr. is. it’s for the Huskies.
Playoff Implications: USC has shown an ability to bounce back from losses under Riley, going 10-6 in back-to-back games with an average margin of victory of 11.5 points in those 10 wins. But if the Trojans want to make it to the CFP, they need to prove they can perform better against top competition. Since Riley took over the program in 2022, USC is 5-14 against AP Top 25 teams and 0-5 against Top 10 teams.
After losing to its first ranked opponent of the season, USC has three more current Top 25 teams on the schedule, two of which are in the Top 10. A loss to an unseeded Washington team could completely derail the Trojans’ playoff hopes and make the hot seat even hotter for Riley.
SPREAD: Tennessee -7
Perspective: The Vols were held to a season-low 17 points and 70 rushing yards last week, and a big part of that was freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon getting sacked 10 times against No. 1 Texas. The Vols still had a chance to win at the end, but ultimately lost by three points. The five-star quarterback had the worst game of his young career, completing just 58% of his passes while throwing for 145 yards and a touchdown in the loss. Brandon has the fewest passing yards among SEC rookie quarterbacks, but the good thing for Brandon and the Vols is that this Auburn defense is among the worst in the SEC.
Auburn’s defense allows 365.8 total yards, 238.8 passing yards and 127 rushing yards per game, all of which rank among the top three in the SEC. Offensively, like Washington, Auburn’s leading rusher is its quarterback, Byrum Brown, and that’s never a good sign. Despite all that, the Tigers are 3-1, and coach Alex Golesh picked up his first SEC win last week against Vanderbilt. Golesh and the Tigers now head out for their first true road game, but those defensive struggles could rear their heads despite their 3-1 record.
Another fundamental issue that could swing this game in Tennessee’s favor is that Auburn has allowed 14 sacks in four games, the most in the SEC, while Tennessee is tied for the most sacks in the nation with 19.
Playoff Implications: Head coach Josh Heupel is trying to get the Vols back to the CFP for the first time since 2024, and a three-point loss to the top-ranked team in the country won’t eliminate them from contention. Heupel’s offense needs to get back on track against this Auburn defense and run the ball at will. Tennessee is one of two SEC teams with two rushers ranked in the conference’s top 10: DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris.
But if the Vols fall to an unranked Auburn team this weekend, they’ll have to climb Mount Everest just to get back into the playoff picture.
SPREAD: Houston -12.5
Perspective: Houston has scored 30 or more points in three of its first four games, averaging 44.5 points per game, the most in the Big 12. Leading the way is quarterback Conner Weigman. The leading signal caller is tied for the conference lead in touchdowns with 11, while ranking in the top five in passing yards with 947. Weigman will have a four-touchdown performance against Georgia Southern, marking the fifth time in his career that he has thrown four or more touchdowns in a game.
Even after losing their starting quarterback in the second game of the season, coach Scott Frost and UCF have found a way to win two straight, opening conference play with a win over TCU last week. The Knights held the Horned Frogs to 33 yards rushing and forced four turnovers, including on TCU’s final two drives. UCF’s defense has forced seven turnovers over the past two games, including four interceptions and three fumble recoveries. The Knights have six interceptions this season, the most in the Big 12 and tied for fourth most in the nation.
Playoff Implications: The Cougars lost a heartbreaker to Texas Tech in Week 3, falling on a botched two-point conversion, but they’re still in the hunt for the Big 12 title. However, they can’t get past UCF, even without its starting quarterback. With the Knights’ defense creating turnovers and giving their offense extra chances, Weigman and the Cougars will need to play a clean game to keep UCF from hanging on. Houston can’t afford another loss, especially to an unranked team with two currently ranked teams still on the schedule.
Bet $10 to win $202.82 if:
- Virginia Tech Moneyline vs. Pitt (-170)
- Penn State vs. Northwestern UNDER 45.5 (-110)
- No. 18 USC vs. Washington OVER 58.5 (-115)
- No. 17 Tennessee (-7.5) vs. Auburn (+100)
- UCF (+12.5) vs. no. 20 Houston (-114)
