Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight Grippers Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni’s Barcelos will collide inside this weekend (Saturday, September 26, 2026). Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 121.
At 21, Rosas Jr. has won six UFC fights and earned a 15 of the best ranking in the highly competitive Bantamweight division. The initial hype train may have derailed a bit, but these are still significant achievements for a young talent! After five straight wins, Rosas Jr. has earned his first major league playing time against Brazil’s Barcelos. Eighteen years older than his opponent, Barcelos has been in the cage with many of the division’s best. He is in the midst of a resurgence with five quality wins of his own (like this) before this high profile battle.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Rosas Jr vs Barcelona Betting odds
Rosas Jr. is a talented athlete and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Large for the bantamweight division, Rosas Jr. can routinely take down his opponents and then dominate on the canvas. His kickboxing has also improved nicely in his three years on the UFC roster, becoming smoother and more powerful, even if there is still room for improvement.
Excellent question here by Rosas Jr. gas tank. Does he have the ability to grind over a highly skilled grappler/grappler in 25 minutes? It won’t be easy to represent Barcelos, a black belt who is also as durable as an old leather boot. This fight will likely go long, which means Rosas Jr. won’t be able to drain the gas early with relentless takedowns.
This may be the time to show off that improved condition. Rosas Jr. is the better and tougher puncher, so he should try to win the distance fight and the time for Barcelos to counter. As a quicker and younger man, he should be able to trade Barcelos with reasonable comfort.
Hitting is, of course, a means to an end. Rosas Jr. still wants to use his wrestling to get top position and win rounds, but if he can do that without relentlessly sprinting toward takedowns, he’ll do better in the second half of the fight.
Barcelos is an accomplished wrestler and longtime black belt. In fact, he was the main sparring partner Jose Aldo much of the champion’s legendary featherweight run. On the feet, Barcelos has power in his right hand and brings a versatile kickboxing attack.
As strange as it is to write about a 39-year-old, I’d like to see Barcelos push the issue here. He’s a much more technical fighter with equally slick jiu-jitsu transitions, so why not take on Rosas Jr.? If only Barcelos could keep up with the giant cardio machine Payton Talbotthe should be able to wrestle at a better pace than Rosas Jr., who still tends to slow down in 15-minute fights.
Cardio alone can win this fight for Barcelos, especially if Rosas Jr. tries to muscle him up.
Based on this, Barcelos should also push the pace on the feet. He’s a better combination shot and looks more natural in the pocket, while Rosas Jr. likely prefers longer range. If Barcelos fakes his takedowns and explodes into body-head combinations, he’ll likely catch Rosas Jr. clean and force a poor response from the young talent.
Rosas Jr vs Barcelona Prediction
There are two possible ways for Rosas Jr. to win this fight, though both will require a higher level of performance than previous performances. He has shown more punching power lately so maybe he can catch Barcelos early in the fight Umar Nurmagomedov. Alternatively, Rosas Jr. could demonstrate an unprecedented cardio workout and bully the older man for five rounds.
I don’t really buy either result.
Barcelos just walked through the punches of the knockout artist Montel Jackson — his chin is still reliable. Meanwhile, Rosas Jr. is consistently getting tired in the fights he’s winning, and he’s never faced a fighter with Barcelos’ skill set. He has to work difficult take and keep Barcelos down, so his effectiveness will probably drop in the second half.
Just as the 39-year-old Barcelos warms up.
Prediction: with Barcelona’s decision
To check the latter UFC Vegas 121 fight card and rumors click here.
