(Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) flyweight champions Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja rematch TONIGHT (Saturday, September 19, 2026) at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California UFC 331.
There is only one takeaway from there snakebitten first fightwhich ended almost immediately in a freak accident (see it again here): this fight is going to be incredible. In the 20 seconds before Pantoja’s unfortunate hand injury, the two flyweights wasted absolutely zero time trading, immediately engaging in a full-on firefight that was sure to be entertaining while it lasted.
Technically it was, but well… you know.
Almost a year later, Van has risen to championship status. He five round war together Tatsuro Taira proved that Van is here to stay, opening many eyes to his overall skills and potential. Pantoja, on the other hand, has spent all that time healing and waiting for his moment to prove that he is still the best in the world.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Van vs. Pantoja 2 Predictions
- Joshua Van Win: -134
- Joshua Van via TKO/KO/DQ: +180
- via submission by Joshua Van: +2000
- Joshua Van by decision: +350
- Alexandre Pantoja win: +110
- Alexandre Pantoja via TKO/KO/DQ: +1300
- Via submission by Alexandre Pantoja: +270
- By decision of Alexandre Pantoja: +500
- Odds viaFanDuel sports betting
How Van Wins
Vanist has quickly developed into one of the best boxers in the sport. He is so comfortable in the pocket that he can initiate, receive and create combos seamlessly. He does his best work pressuring opponents and countering their turnover attempts with excellent eyes in the pocket.
The champion also pushes a significant tempo.
At first glance, it’s obvious enough attacker vs. Van is looking to fight his way to victory against the jiu-jitsu ace, a stylistic clash so common it’s a mainstay of the sport. In this case, though, Van has a more specific goal than just stopping the takedown: he needs to keep Pantoja working.
A big part of Pantoja’s late-career success is that he can control his output so well. “The Cannibal” knows how to explode in a flurry of violent strikes and takedowns, then find a way to dominate and rest. He doesn’t need to keep up with younger opposition, not when he can pin them down for long periods of time and take their breath away.
Against Taira, Van did a solid job using his jiu-jitsu, even in bad positions. He was able to use the butterfly guard to stand up or get away from the back of the hip. The same skill will be put to the test tonight as Pantoja gets him to the canvas at one point.
The question is whether Van can keep up the scramble and continue to put pressure on Pantoja’s gas tank.
How Pantoja Wins
No one expected Pantoja to become an all-time great flyweight champion. An The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) also-ran, the Brazilian established himself a Top 10 contender, but ran into the wall several times as he approached the title fight. At the age of 31, he suddenly turned the corner and snapped an incredible streak that saw him capture the flyweight crown and make four defenses.
In addition to being the best backpacker in the sport, Pantoja is a crafty kickboxer who is apparently made of steel. Remember Kai Asakura a header that just fell out Aoriqilingen? Pantoja walked right through the same shot without flinching.
Pantoja’s ability to time his shots will be tested in this match. He has a hard time turning his takedowns into successful checks when he dives right into Van’s defense, as the champion keeps his base well under him. He has to trade with Van and time his entry perfectly or it will take a lot of energy to land his opponent.
Van did well in the Taira fight to avoid giving up his back in the scramble. Pantoja needs to be more active landing elbows from a high position than the Japanese fighter. Ground strikes force Van’s arm and reveal a back kick.
From this position, Pantoja is a finishing threat to anyone, including the current champion.
Van vs. Pantoja 2 Prediction
MMA moves fast.
Less than a year ago, I predicted Pantoja to win by submissionclaiming that hitting the volume wasn’t the answer to Pantoja’s brick jaw and elite jiu-jitsu. In short, I believed that Van would not get enough time on his feet to wear down the veteran champion.
Ten months later, I think the opposite. Van’s defensive tackle in the Taira fight showed a level of experience and comfort on the floor that I would not have expected. In addition to boxing, he is a quick learner on the canvas, meaning he can get back on his feet and make Pantoja pay for his age and production. Steve Erceg almost upset Pantoja in 2024, forcing the Brazilian to constantly work and be more refined on his feet … and Van now has the skills to build on that success.
I still wouldn’t be shocked to submit Pantoja inside the first three rounds – he’s an incredible fighter and champion. At 36, against an opponent recovering quickly from injury, but the odds are stacked against him.
Prediction: Van via decision
To check the latter UFC 331 fight card and rumors clickhere.
