On paper, the US Open has a huge favorite and a clear underdog. The paper is the problem.
The only line on his record that matters
On paper, the US Open has a huge favorite and a clear underdog. The paper is the problem. The same card that Zverev is 5-0 against Shelton and 44-1 against lefties is also 1-7 against the top 10 this season and 6-20 against them at the Grand Slam level.
He hasn’t played any top 20 players in these two weeks. Lorenzo Sonnego, Quentin Hallis, 25th seed Alejandro Tabillo, 21st seed Luciano Darderi, Bottic van de Zandshulp 70th and Karen Khachanov 50th. Roland-Garros and Wimbledon in 2008.
Shelton is world number 9. Beating him would be Zverev’s second top 10 win of the year, his second at a Grand Slam since 2023, and the answer to the only question anyone is still asking about him. Winning a second Masters without it will leave the issue unchanged.
What Shelton has already crossed
The American arrives to spend two weeks doing to others what Zverev did to him. He entered the tournament having lost all 17 of his matches against top 3 opponents, all of which he won in one set, and he recited the rest of the list himself.
“I was 0-1 against Steph, 0-3 against Carlos, Foe beat me the last time we played on this court,” he said after the semi-final. “It’s been a very tough fight, so I think I’m fully up to the challenge.”
Stefanos Tsitsipas went straight sets. Carlos Alcaraz finished in the top five in the last finish in tournament history, making Shelton the second man in the Open Era since Manuel Orantes in 1975 to beat two top-two players en route to the title. Francis Tiafoe went for four. One name is left.
“I feel like I’m a different player,” Shelton said. “I feel like I have a lot more tools. I feel like I know my identity, I’m comfortable in my own skin. I’m also the most confident I’ve ever been in my game.”
Tiafoe, who has played with both players this season, then instructed him. “Take the fight and actually believe he can win the tennis match. He should be fine for a few hours, maybe plus, and see what happens.”
The long way of Zverev and Shelton
They spent nearly the same amount of time on court, 19 hours 38 minutes for Zverev and 18 hours 58 for Shelton, and Zverev’s total is a record fourth on the way to a Grand Slam final. The German hit 87 aces to 71 and 36 double faults to 22, and has a higher average first serve from 211 kph to 195. Shelton has a faster 240 km/h. Zverev won 92% of his service games, compared to Shelton’s 88%; Shelton converted 45% of his break points to Zverev’s 33%.
In rallies of nine shots or more, they are even, 50% to 49%.
Both are coached by their fathers, Alexander Zverev Sr. and Brian Shelton, and both fathers spent the week talking about patience. Brian Shelton’s rule for his son after Alcaraz’s victory was five words. “Don’t celebrate until you break up.”
the stadium, and 8407 days
Shelton is trying to end the longest drought in men’s Grand Slam history at 8,407 days since Andy Roddick won here on Sept. 7, 2003, a month before Shelton’s first birthday. He would be the eighth different American to win the title in the Open Era and the first left-handed champion since Rafael Nadal in 2019.
He has already requested the room. “I need you guys to bring some energy on Sunday. We’ll get to that here. I’ll leave it all on the court. Let’s do it for the USA.”
Zverev said his words a few hours ago, before the other semi-final match. “I think it’s going to be incredibly special. They’re crowd favorites in New York, everybody loves them.” And then. “I hope I can’t make the American dream come true on Sunday.”
He has been here once, in 2020, in an empty stadium and led Dominic Thiem in two sets before losing, becoming the only man in history to win a Grand Slam semifinal in two sets before losing the final in two sets. He says that the scar was closed in June. “That was until I won in Paris. There were question marks, there were doubts about whether I would ever win. Now that I’ve won one, it’s good.”
Victory would make him the fourth man in the Open Era to win his first two Grand Slam titles in the same season, after Jimmy Connors in 1974, Guillermo Vilas in 1977, Yannick Sinner in 2024 and the second German champion since Becker in 1989.
