Here’s what math says about the Italian’s road to Turin.
Muscle tension was reported in Vienna
Kobolli He retired in tears in the second round in Vienna last Thursday, pushing back his countryman Matteo Berettini 5-2 in the first set after 41 minutes. He then said that his tears were not caused by pain, but by emotion.
The next day, he wrote on his Instagram story that the scan showed a minor muscle strain and that he would do everything to play in Paris. On Monday, when the tournament announced his withdrawal, he said he still felt some discomfort and didn’t want to take any chances. Why him?
Only one combination can keep Cobolli out of Turin
Back Jannik Sinner: for the rest of the seasonninth place is the last place in the race, and four players have already qualified. The draw leaves only one way for the four contenders to get through to Kobolli this week.
Sixth seed Arthur son France should advance to the quarterfinals, which would give them 3,725 points. Seventh seed Francis Tiafoe USA should advance to the semifinals (3780).
Ninth seed Rafael Jodar The Spanish national team should reach the finals (3834). The fourth should be the eighth seed Alex de Minaur Australia reached the final (3810), or 10th place Novak Djokovic Serbia (3890) won the title.
The only scenario that keeps Cobolli away from Turin
All four results are due to take place in Paris this week. Kobol has 3680 points left (orange line).
Arthur son(6)advances to the quarterfinals3,535 → 3,725
AND:
Francis Tiafoe(7)reaches the semi-finals3,390 → 3,780
AND:
Rafael Jodar(9)reaches the final3234 → 3834
AND:
Alex de Minaur(8)reaches the final3,170 → 3,810
OR:
Novak Djokovic(10)wins the title2900 → 3890
Gray. Race to Turin points ahead of Tuesday’s matches. Green. points are needed to pass Kobolli. Scale: 2800 to 4000 points. Source: ATP news reports. The scenario occurred in 0.2 percent of 600,000 major tennis simulations.
Any other combination fails because the contenders block each other. The Fils share the division with the 11th seed Taylor FritzTiafoe with the 12th seed Tommy Pauland de Minaur with Djokovic. Each half of the draw can only qualify for one final.
Those four results, all in the same week, represent 0.2 percent. The real fight is elsewhere. Jodar (47.5 percent) and de Minaur (37.8 percent) are in contention for what is likely to be the last spot, with Djokovic (15.5 percent) the main outsider.
Rudd can settle on Tuesday night
According to ATP media, Koboli will be confident of his place if Casper Rudd The Norwegians defeated Jodar in the second round tonight. In the simulations, Koboli qualified every time Jodar lost that match.
The model evaluates each player by the average of their overall and hard court Elo ratings that they have posted Tennis abstractand plays the remaining matches of the actual draw. It was conducted before Tuesday’s matches and does not take form or fitness into account.
Rude, who? Never faced a break point against Juan Manuel Cherundolo meets Jodhar on Monday Tuesday night session. A win for the Norwegian would send Kobolli to the Tour without the latter scoring another goal.
