Sabalenka’s level is “insanely high”
On Thursday night’s evidence, Sabalenka should win it. Jessica Pegula, who lost in the semifinals 7-5, 6-2, entered the interview room and judged her opponent.
“That’s definitely, you can ask him, probably the best game he’s had this year,” Pegula said. “I thought his level was insanely high. To be honest, I don’t really know if there was much I could do today. I honestly don’t know if he missed a sloppy play the entire match. I really want to check it out.”
His conclusion was harsh. “I think the way he played tonight, he probably would have beaten anybody. He would probably beat 99% of the people.”
The record supports reading. This is Sabalenka’s fourth straight U.S. Open final, trailing only Evonne Gulagong (1973-1976), Chris Evert (1975-1980), Martina Navratilova (1983-1987), Steffi Graf (1987-1990 and 1993-1902) and Serena Williams. 1993-1996).
It is also his eighth straight Grand Slam final on hard courts, a feat previously achieved by no one of either gender, surpassing the combined seven held by Graf, Martina Hingis and Novak Djokovic. Win, and she became the third woman in the Open Era to win three consecutive US Open titles, after Evert and Serena Williams, and the first player ever to win her first five majors, all on hard court.
Arina cannot afford to leave the season empty
It is in his case. Here’s the pressure on it.
Sabalenka has won a Grand Slam title in the last three years: two Australian Open Championships (2023, 2024) and two US Open Championships (2024, 2025). Lose on Saturday and 2026 becomes his first season without it since 2022, with three titles in Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami and no majors.
Both of her losses in this year’s Grand Slam finals would come against the same woman, Yelena Rybakina, who would end the season with two majors and the ranking she once held.
He says the ranking doesn’t bother him. Asked on Thursday whether he would take on Rybakina if she won the US Open for the third time, she answered twice. When asked what it feels like to come in as number 1 and leave without it. “I don’t care.” Then more carefully. “Elena took it and played really well. I can just focus on me and just stay in the moment and do my best right now to hold on to it and maybe I’ll get it back from him.”
Pegula named the weapon he didn’t have
The most helpful thing Pegula said was not about Sabalenka at all. When asked what it would take to break that level, he listed two things that could and admitted that he owns neither.
“I’m not so much like Rybakina, where I can possibly be of service in some way to get out of trouble,” he said. “I didn’t think I served badly, in fact I served really well. But I’m not quite a Rybakina where I can serve myself without trouble, and I’m not quite a Coco who can rely on insane athleticism. You’re going to need one of those to throw him a little.”
Coco Gauf made it to the semi-finals. Rybakina is left and she has the same plan.
“He is a very aggressive player. It’s hard to play with her, mentally, physically, because she has a big game, a big serve,” the Kazakh said of Sabalenka after defeating Gauff 3-6, 6-4, 6-4. “I have to come with all the energy I have, give my best against Arena and make the right decisions at the right time, because a lot of times it’s difficult, a close score. This is where the decision makes the difference.”
He’s done it before, to this opponent, in this situation
Rybakina is 9-8 in her career against the world’s No. 1 ranked players in the match. Since the WTA rankings began in 1975, only Serena Williams, 58.6%, and Steffi Graf, 57.8%, have won the reigning No. 1s more often than her 52.9%. Victory on Saturday would be her tenth over the sitting No. 1 and make her only the second woman to win each of two Grand Slam finals in the same calendar year. The only other is Graf, 1995.
The first of those two finals came in Melbourne in January, when she defeated Sabalenka for the Australian Open. Since then, however, traffic has been moving in the opposite direction. Sabalenka beat him in the Indian Wells final and Miami semi-final en route to both titles and leads them head-to-head 10-7, albeit tied 7-7 on hard courts, where they have played 14 of their 17 matches.
Rybakina’s own verdict on the ranking she had already achieved, released on Wednesday, set the tone for everything from then on. “Now it’s just a number. Of course, I’m in the semi-finals, so my goal is to win the tournaments I play in.” The final will start at 16:00.
