This weekend (Saturday, October 10, 2026) the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 122. I don’t care how many knockouts happened last week UFC 332 (setting a record!), we’re in the midst of a UFC slump. There hasn’t been much meaningful fighting in the last two weeks and that won’t change on Saturday! On the bright side, hopefully the recent matchmaking trend towards squash matches will lead to some exciting highlights… and maybe increase my selection percentage by a point or two?
We’re heading into Apex and everyone should know what that entails by now. Let’s delve into the analysis and predictions of the five main card fights leading up to the main event:
Lightweight: Jai Herbert (+148) vs. Matheus Camilo (-192)
Herbert’s best win? Kyle Nelson For Camilo? Nadim Sadyhov
The current sequence: Herbert won his last match, while Camilo won two in a row
The X Factor: Camilo is 13 years younger
How the two fit together: It should be pretty fun while it lasts.
I have a soft spot for fighters like Herbert, gritty and technical veterans who don’t have the athleticism to be top contenders. The tough “Black Country Banger” can always be counted on to pick it up by adding fun entries and testing new comers, a necessary cog in the UFC machine. Camilo, 25, is the prospect here. The Brazilian “Jaguar” has been inconsistent in his first three UFC fights, posting a one-sided loss, a boring submission win and a shocking knockout victory (relive it here). He has shown great standup skills and brilliant timing, but he can also be quite low volume.
This fight is really hard to predict. Herbert is a bit of a glass cannon and Camilo is definitely capable of breaking him. Generally, you want to side with fighters who are 13 years younger than their opponent. On the contrary, Herbert has more high-level experience, and you also don’t want to bet against opponents with an eight-inch advantage.
I saw Herbert smoke early with a counter strike. I could also see him pounding Camilo with jabs and kicks and building more and more of a numbers advantage as the rounds progressed. Both ways the fight could play out make perfect sense…
Prediction: Herbert via decision
Strawweight: Loopy Godinez (-245) vs Ketlen Souza (+186)
Best win for Godinez? Jessica Andrade For Souza? Yazmin Jauregui doesn’t follow anyone. Autodesk_new
The current sequence: Godinez lost his last fight, while Souza has won two in a row
The X Factor: Souza can crack
How the two fit together: I have to admit, I find Godinez’s fights pretty unwatchable.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s a damn good Strawweight. Godinez has decent kickboxing skills, above-average wrestling and cardio that can push you hard in 15 minutes. Unless he absolutely overwhelms his opponents, the chance of a finish is slim, while the chance of a competitive decision is high (spoiler alert!). Souza, on the other hand, is less technical and more fun to watch. He follows suit Jessica Andradepushing a hard pace and swinging heavy hooks to both the body and chin.
Can Souza make the Godinez fight compelling? possible! On the feet, he can match his volume and overpower him with sheer power, even if his boxing isn’t as sharp. The biggest question is whether Souza can hold up to taking down Godinez, and that’s where I have a lot less confidence. It wasn’t that long ago that Souza lost back-to-back fights largely due to takedowns, and those losses came against smaller fighters than Godinez.
Godinez mixes his kickboxing well into his wrestling. He may have to survive a few hard shots or a late surge from the Brazilian, but he’ll spend much of this fight in top position, wearing his opponent down.
Prediction: Godinez via decision
Featherweight: Andre Fili (-150) vs Kai Kamaka III (+118)
Best win for Fili? Puppy Swanson For Kamaka? Bubba Jenkins
The current sequence: Fili lost his last two, while Kamaka lost his last
The X Factor: Both men were stopped by strikes during the summer
How the two fit together: This clash of featherweight veterans should be a lot of fun.
Fili has been on the UFC roster for 13 years and is starting to break featherweight records for longevity. A slick long-range striker, Fili hits opponents with powerful strikes from both positions, then delivers both counter kicks and takedowns as they try to push forward. Kamaka, meanwhile, is in his second UFC stint after a career hiatus in the PFL. He’s a high-volume combo puncher who packs a heavy punch, and he’s also a capable grappler.
Both men are hard-nosed vets who rarely cut corners. However, I think most of the advantages are on the “Touchy” side. He’s a more powerful knockout player, a better hitter, has a five-inch reach advantage and has generally faced a higher level of competition throughout his career. Kamaka’s excellent edge is the raw output here, but you have to expect Fili’s jabs and body shots to slow him down.
Fili will likely get the kind of ranged combat he enjoys here, and his ranged weapons should be able to mitigate the boxing of “The Fighting Hawaiian.”
Prediction: Via Fili’s decision
Light Heavyweight: Julius Walker (-295) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+220)
Walker’s best win? Rafael Cerqueira For Meerschaert? Edmen Shahbazyan
The current sequence: Walker has lost two in a row, while “GM3” is the “O” for his last five
The X Factor: Meerschaert weighs up to 205 pounds
How the two fit together: It’s not great.
Walker arrived in the UFC too soon. It’s that simple. He has the athletic talent and size to succeed in the UFC lightweight division, but his game hasn’t developed and learning on the job in a division where everyone hits really hard is tough. He has some grappling and clinch skills, but he’s just shockingly hitable on the feet, which remains a huge liability.
“GM3” has about the opposite problem: he’s ancient. For all the 38-year-olds reading this column, I’m more referring to Meerschaert’s overall career. This will be his 60th pro fight and his historically iron chin has definitely worn off along with his overall athleticism.
Of course, there is a chance that Meerschaert’s weight class move will inject some life into his career. Perhaps the cut was killing his performance. On paper, there’s no reason why Meerschaert couldn’t simply hit Walker’s liver with his left kick and then grab a guillotine as his opponent frantically tries to wrestle. Five years ago, such a clash of styles would have been a put-on for a veteran.
Nowadays, I don’t trust it. Meerschaert is too fragile right now. At 27, Walker will need to be bigger, stronger and full of piss and vinegar to hold his position on the roster. As he pushes to attack with knees and elbows, Meerschaert has no answer.
Prediction: Walker via knockout
Weight: Malcolm Wellmaker (-235) vs. Otari Tanzilov (+180)
Wellmaker’s best win? Cameron Saima For Tanzilov? Guillermo Torres
The current sequence: Wellmaker has lost two in a row, while Tanzilovi recently lost in her UFC debut
The X Factor: Wellmaker recently began training at American Top Team (ATT)
How the two fit together: We have a classic striker vs. wrestler match between bantamweight prospects.
Wellmaker started his UFC run with a pair of fiery knockouts, gaining momentum right away. Unfortunately, consecutive losses Ethyn Ewing and Juan Diaz showed that the athletic knockout artist still has more to learn. Meanwhile, Tanzilovi is still looking for her first UFC win. The Georgia wrestler can be merciless with his takedowns, but he has struggled to land significant enough offense to sway the judges in his corner in a pair of narrow losses. Contender series and quite in the octagon.
To his credit, Tanzilov has seven knockout wins in lower-level competition.
Tanzilovi is a fairly straightforward challenger, a strong wrestler and a good athlete. If Wellmaker – with his size, reach and knockout power – can’t handle this matchup, it’s well and truly over. Fortunately, ATT is one of the best gyms in the country to learn how to wrestle. Getting up after a takedown is a specialty of the gym and they should also help the Wellmaker fill in the gaps in the standing position, such as picking up points when you’re looking for that nasty check hook.
Basically, I still have some faith that Wellmaker can succeed in the UFC, and so I think he can bounce back here.
Prediction: Wellmaker via decision
The 2026 X-Factor Picks: 59-32 (1)
To watch the full UFC Vegas 122 fight card and lineup, click here.
