England fans must feel like Butch Cassidy watching their team and wondering, “Who are these guys?” Butch eventually found out as the chasing pack closed in as Sundance berated his buddy in typically laconic fashion, “That’s your trouble. You’re always thinking”.
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So who are Steve Borthwick’s boys – the group that won 12 matches on the spin not so long ago or the mob that went down at Six Nations 2026, which he punched Ireland at home and beaten Italy for the first time ever? Or even the gallant, tense side that at least closed out that horribly disappointing championship with a gutsy performance against France?
Funny, right? Or one year from the beginning of 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, do we think too much? Can’t we wait and see a little longer? No, not really. If there’s one hallmark of World Cup champion teams, it’s that they knew what they were about 12 months out from the tournament.
Sir Clive Woodward even issued a special challenge to his team as they approached Australia the last time the event was held there – beat the big dogs of the southern hemisphere on a consistent basis and bring it home Six Nations title after falling at the final hurdle one too many times.
Tick and tick led to the ticking of the World Cup. In 1991, Bob Dwyer bled rookies like centers Jason Little and Tim Horan while John Eales was a late arrival and that didn’t turn out too bad, did it? The All black people knew what it was all about in 1995 with Jonah in their ranks only to be undone by Mandela Magic. And so on. Get your ducks in order – or panic like the Springboks did 18 months out from the 2019 RWC and call Rassie on a sinking ship – and embrace proven combinations and productive results.
South Africa they are back in that good place. But are any of the others? New Zealand – flashes of brilliance undermined by fault lines ahead. France – seemingly still suffering from the trauma of 2023, feeling like it should be better than it actually is, and there’s some truth to that. They have the staff and they yearn to be as good as the sum of their talents suggests they should be. Ireland – age-old worries about age and a gender that isn’t Johnny Sexton. Scotland they flattered to cheat too often for comfort and need the first piece of Six Nations silverware if we are to revise that damned estimate.
Even if Australia lose to New Zealand as expected, England will be set for a potential quarter-final meeting with the hosts.
Australia – here’s the thing, we have the most interesting prospect ahead, a truly competitive team for the host nation after their crazy 42-38 win over (much changed) South Africa in the very stadium where the World Cup kicks off in a year’s time. The Wallabies will have no problem picking up another win there as they kick off the tournament against them Hong Kong China but their recent surge under Les Kiss suggests their success in the pool is against New Zealand it’s not the one-way street to an All Blacks victory that it once seemed. That can only be good for the entire event.
A potential revival of the Wallabies would affect many things – local interest for sure, but also the intended routes drawn through the knockout stages. Even if Australia lose to New Zealand as expected, England will be set for a potential quarter-final meeting with the hosts.
It must be said that with expanded format, which includes 24 teams and the round of 16there is minimal danger in the pool stages. Spreading the faith is a mission and such as Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Chile, Uruguay and others deserve the carrot dangled in front of them, albeit with plenty of fingers crossed that the opener in Perth (Australia v Hong Kong China) doesn’t get too messy.
Napoleon Bonaparte reckoned he would ‘rather have happy generals than good ones’ and on that score Steve Borthwick has plenty going for him with an extended contract and a decent World Cup draw. Given that South Africa, New Zealand and France are all in the second half of the draw, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the semi-final clash with Ireland could be set up as England’s last four knockouts. From there….
England’s form has been variable if we want to be generous, and tricky if we’re not.
That assumes a big win over Wales, not quite the foregone conclusion it might seem now that we’ve seen the impact of PREM imports such as Jac Morgan, Dewi Lake and Aaron Wainwright up close. Long awaited Wales the revival is not as wild a theory as it once might have been. As I recall, they didn’t do too badly in 2015.
England is at a critical stage. There is no doubt about that. Their shape was variable if we wanted to be generous, and twisted as anything if we weren’t. They need a string of results to boost their confidence and calm the nerves of their fans who will be watching the upcoming November series of matches (Australia, Japan, New Zealand) with Butch Cassidy vibes not far from the surface.
If England can still hit the groove they were in just 12 months ago, then many of their problems will begin to ease, particularly discipline. Borthwick could derisively accuse those who question his side’s discipline of being a ‘committee for negativity’, as he did in Argentina in the summer, but it is a reality that cannot be dismissed as just a media fiction twisted into a headline. Fifteen yellow cards and one red is not the return of a champion team, relaxed in their own skin, confident that their teammates will do the right thing at the right time.
Borthwick also needs to hang his colors to the mast in key positions – particularly at half-back and centre. They can’t keep spinning in the middle of the field. Fin Smith must be officially named at 10 and if the chosen pair outside of him is Benhard Janse van Rensburg and Tommy Freeman then that must be the starting choice (barring injuries) until opening match of the World Cup against Tonga in Brisbane.
England have one big thing in their favor and that is a decent set of forwards who can contend with the Springboks, the standard for any aspiring side. Their prospects would improve immeasurably if the ban on the Willis brothers in exile (Jack in Toulouse, Tom in Bordeaux) were lifted, but business-first protectionist edicts look set to prevail. England would have a serious package if they were available. Either way, their whores have to go the distance and druggies like George Martin have to stay fit.
The permutations for all teams are endlessly fascinating. The World Cup countdown clock is ticking.
