Selection has been one of Wallabies coach Les Kiss’s strongest attributes, but that strength will soon be hampered by one unyielding fact: the world
The Rugby Regulation 9 window is now closed.
Regulation 9, which provides for official release deadlines for overseas players to return to their national teams, is not in place for the Bledisloe Cup series in October, meaning the Wallabies are without two of their best and most impressive forwards, Taniela Tupou and Tom Hooper, for two of the toughest matches of 2026.
There’s no two ways about it: Tests against the second best team in the world All black peopleare the two toughest games the Wallabies will play all year.
Not only will the All Blacks be desperate to retain the Bledisloe Cup after a disappointing Greatest Rivalry Tour, but they won’t have a heavily rotated side like the Boks did in Perth.
Meanwhile, the Wallabies will be without two of their best, not to mention a host of other big players.
Lifting the Bledisloe Cup is the Wallabies’ Everest, their holy grail, and while lifting the 2027 World Cup would be the pinnacle, ask any Aussie which piece of silverware they’d prefer in Rugby Australia’s cabinet, and they’d stop and think about it.
On the surface, the Wallabies appear to have all the right cards to enter the Bledisloe Cup race with confidence and momentum, but the closing of the Rule 9 window, injuries and suspensions will mean the wrong kind of selection headaches for Kiss and his assistants.
The loss of Tupou and Hooper, the four-week/match ban imposed on Hunter Paisami for a high tackle on Sacha Fienberg-Mngomezulu, as well as
injuries within the group, all shining a harsh light on the shallow depth of the Wallaby.
It also sheds light on a larger, undeniable and fundamental problem: the politics of selection and availability abroad.
Hypothetically, had they all been fit and available, the absence of a Rule 9 window would have prevented the likes of Will Skelton and Langi Gleeson from joining the Wallabies for the series, as their French would not let them Top 14 clubs.
However, it should be noted that both are currently nursing long-term injuries and are therefore also unavailable for selection.
This fact aside, there would be another obstacle to selection as RA has an internal policy of selecting only three overseas players at a time.
So even if Skelton and Gleeson were fit, coach Kiss would only have to pick three players from the two of them, as well as Tupou and Hooper.
Alternatively, Kiss would have to ask RA CEO Phil Waugh to agree to an exception to the policy.
With all the momentum behind the Wallabies, it would be a bizarre move for RA to cut Kiss off at the knees in this hypothetical.
To take this hypothetical to its conclusion, if all players were fit and available and the Rule 9 framework were not in place, say sometime in 2027, then the Wallabies would be without Skelton, Gleeson, Tupou, Hooper and Mark Nawaqanitawase from Japan, Hunter Paisami, Jock Campbell, Jordan Petaia and Samu Kerevi.
That’s nine players the Wallabies’ Match 23 could benefit from if they’re all fit and uninjured, so which three will Kiss pick?
Now that the hypothetical is over, the facts remain: Paisami is suspended, Skelton and Gleeson are unavailable through injury, and the selection issues of OS, Hooper and Tupou have also been removed.
Still, this selection issue is a problem that remains and is present for the Wallabies: they cannot be a growing global threat or be the best they can be if almost a third of the matchday 23 is unavailable for games like these Bledisloe matches due to falling outside the Rule 9 framework.
The Wallabies don’t and won’t have that depth for a few more years, and unless the RA and the Rugby Players’ Association (RUPA) agree a pay rise in their current deliberations, this issue is likely to get worse after the house carrot Rugby World Cup expires in 2028
How this all goes down now, with the Wallabies poised to march on the All Blacks’ stronghold of Eden Park, is that Kiss, who has been so good at selection up to this point, has had his hands tied by powers greater than his own.
These are selection hurdles that Kiss and the Wallabies can ill afford if they truly want to challenge for Bledisloe this year.
The Wallabies take the wind out of their sails in terms of momentum and significantly change the optics of this clash.
Instead of the Wallabies going to Eden Park from a position of strength with a cohesive, battle-hardened unit, they head to the spiritual home of the All Blacks with the ambition of upsetting what looks like a heavily rotated and depleted side.
Without Tupou, Hooper, Paisami and a nervous wait to see if young second-rower Josh Canham recovers from a hamstring injury, as well as Len Ikitau from an ankle injury, they could not see at least four changes to the Wallabies team for the game from the one that ran out against the Boks.
These changes could also lead to as many as 10 changes in Game 23, with several new faces entering the fray as well as a reshuffle on the bench.
We now know what change can do to a side as deep and elite as the back-to-back world champions Springboks; it will almost certainly have a similar effect on the now sixth-ranked Wallabies.
While all focus appears to be on the center pairings, with Paisami definitely missing and Ikitau also unlikely to recover in time for Eden Park, the real blow comes from the unavailability of Hooper and Tupou for the Bledisloe series.
The Wallabies’ forward pack has been their source of strength, scoring the majority of their tries so far in 2026, and it comes from a strong podwork and great set pieces.
While the loss of a strong play driver in Paisami and the likely loss of a world-class operator in Ikitau are tough pills to swallow, the Wallabies’ forward pack is the heart of this side right now.
It is a shame to see this strength taken away by mere club duty in rugby, faced with making history.
However, it would be remiss not to mention the fact that performances as a wider squad of 34 players is a trend in the right direction.
Against the Springboks, the 2026 Wallabies scored their most points ever against a higher-ranked side by 9 points, scoring 33 points against then third-placed Ireland.
They posted their second-highest defensive success rate against the Boks at 87% and their second-highest post-contact meter per carry at 2.2 million per
carry (against Ireland they gave 2.4 million).
The Wallabies also secured their second-highest line-out haul with nine against the Boks, second only to their efforts against Ireland, where they had 10.
They have scored the equal most tries (5) so far this season and kicked the most penalties (3).
Their set numbers haven’t wavered either, with both the scrum and lineout working over an impressive 90% average.
Although Kiss was very crafty in the way he mixed and matched his team during his five-game tenure, almost all of his ‘experimentation’
(he doesn’t like that word) was done on his terms, with an injury here and there, and it was against weaker or exhausted teams.
The All Blacks are likely to pick a squad not dissimilar to the one that took to the field against the Springboks in Baltimore for the final in
The Biggest Rivalry Tour.
Doc Argentina are missing more than 12 of their regular starters due to rest protocol, and Rassie Erasmus gambled by making 13 changes to his Boks side from his Greatest Rivalry winning team, the All Blacks will be at relatively full strength.
The only truly significant exclusions will be their two irreplaceables: captain Ardie Savea and regular fly-half Ruben Love.
There are a few other players, such as Dave Rennie’s diamond in the rough, Luke Jacobson, but only the two players above are truly
irreplaceable in the All Blacks match on the 23rd.
The positive from a team-building and performance perspective is that Kiss seems to be close to finding its favorite 23-
men’s team for the game.
But now with suspensions, injuries and World Rugby regulations, he can’t be selected for the Bledisloe series.
In October, Kiss will again have to be wise in their choices.
Kiss leads with actions and words, backing himself, his coaching staff and his players, and instilling the same confidence in his group of young men.
However, while Kiss and his men have only shown strength and determination in the face of adversity, some challenges are too great to overcome.
With key players injured, suspended and now halfway around the world unable to be called up, the Wallabies appear to be climbing the Bledisloe Everest without oxygen or a pickaxe; it is doable but almost impossible.
