The commercial standards industrial complex team will not take kindly to giving up future premium assets to boost their shot at the championship. It was tension again when the Chicago Bears traded for All-Pro Tennessee Titans defensive end Jeffrey Simmons in an NFL blockbuster on Thursday afternoon.
The Athletic gave the Bears a D+ for the trade. When the Titans get the A’s. ESPN saw it the same way.A C for the Bears and A for the Titans. The only positive result for Chicago It comes from my colleague James Datore here at SB Nation, who reports that the Bears b And Tennessee got an A.
The motivation for the Titans is clear. Tennessee isn’t going anywhere, so landing two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick for a 29-year-old defensive end and a 2028 fifth-round pick is a big deal. For the trade to be worth it to the Bears, they probably have to win the Super Bowl, and that means the margin for error to ‘win’ the trade is razor thin.
As a member of the commercial results industrial complex myself, I have always believed that maximizing a chance at a championship is the single most important thing any team can do. That’s part of the reason. I was more bullish on the New York Knicks trade for Karl-Anthony Towns. than many of my colleagues. Of course, he came to bite me badly Milwaukee Bucks Damian Lillard tradeIt doesn’t work as well as I thought.
Sometimes not trading at all is just as risky. There is an opportunity cost on both sides, and the best GMs must evaluate each outcome, make a decision, and pray for good luck. Trading two first round picks for Sauce Gardner is a huge risk for the Indianapolis Colts. In the year Many will tell you that trading two picks for Khalil Mack in 2018 was tough for the Bears, because they’ve never won a Super Bowl.
I’ll admit that I was initially hit with sticker shock when the details of the trade were revealed. After talking about it for about two years, I’m totally on board. The Bears are uniquely positioned to make this type of trade now and let this moment pass. Without A move to improve defenses was also insidious. what if? On the other side of the coin.
Jeffery Simmons is arguably the most important position on the defense.
An interior pass rusher may be better than an elite edge rusher for the most valuable player on defense. The last few Super Bowl winners have had prolific interior pass rushers. The Bears didn’t have that player before this trade and now they land arguably the best in the league.
Basically, EDGEs aren’t having the success they used to because quarterbacks are getting better out of formation. Defensive tackles who drop the pocket quickly are having a big impact on advanced metrics, which is why guards are suddenly being paid more money for offensive tackles. A masterful defensive scheme opens up opportunities for safeties and middle linebackers, which Bears DC Dennis Allen should be licking his chops at.
What makes Simmons great is as a pass rusher and run stopper. How many defensive linemen can you say correctly? Get a stat, any stat, and Simmons has been dominant in it.
Simmons is going to make the rest of the Bears defense better.
‘Force multiplier’ is a term thrown around a lot in the NFL, but it was coined for players like Simmons. His presence will make life easier for everyone who is achieving high marks this year.
Montez Lab was never going to be the best defensive lineman against a Super Bowl contender. Now he should not be. Grady Jarrett, at age 33, looks much better as a DT2 than a DT1 at this point in his career. Simmons’ ability to hold multiple blockers and still finish plays could come in handy for Austin Booker on the edge and Kyler Gordon in coverage. It also means the bearish secondary — the most aggressive in recent weeks — shouldn’t be covered for long or so. Chicago’s linebackers will need to be more effective in stopping the run as Simmons draws more offensive attention.
The Bears may still need to trade for a cornerback, but Simmons is the rare player who makes guys at every level of the defense better, which is why the price tag was so high on him.
Simmons is locked in a contract that should be a nice team fit
One of the risks in big moves like this is that the player you just traded has all the leverage in contract negotiations. That is not the case with Siemens. He is already paid on a deal that runs until 2030. The Titans have already paid his bonus, so the Bears have more flexibility the rest of this season.
The Bears got a big discount on the contract because of the bonus element and how it was structured. With the Bears able to move on from players like Labb, Jarrett, TJ Edwards and Jaylon Johnson, there should be room to land a high-impact player next year.
The asset value is sky-high, but the Bears should have Simmons at a team-friendly cap number as long as he continues to play at a high level and doesn’t require a new deal.
Daryl Morey’s 5% rule applies here.
Daryl Morey once argued that if a team has a 5% chance at a championship, it should go all-in. Morey never won a championship as an NBA general manager, but his thought process still makes sense. Given that there is more diversity in football, there is more incentive to oppress.
This trade took the Bears from No. 8 to No. 6 in Super Bowl odds. According to ESPN. To top it all off, they are currently priced at +1100, which equates to about 8.33%. Perhaps the market is still failing them. The Los Angeles Rams are still ahead of the Bears thanks to their preseason hype, but they certainly don’t look like a juggernaut just yet. The Seahawks and 49ers are the only two NFC teams ahead of Chicago, and I’m sure, I can see. The 49ers were my preseason Super Bowl pick, and I’m still feeling pretty good about that.
The talent gap between Chicago and Seattle + San Francisco is much smaller today than it was yesterday. Just listen to Quinton Nelson, perhaps the best point guard of his generation, cringe at the mere thought of playing Simmons again.
Faith in Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams Chicago
The real reason the Bears can make this kind of trade is because they are uniquely positioned with a quarterback and head coach who are good enough to win a Super Bowl right now.
Caleb Williams is still on his rookie contract this season and next, and will still have a fifth-year option that would be considered a significant discount. He’s already a top-5 QB in the league in my eyes, and now at age 25 he’s ready to win in the playoffs. Williams will likely sign the biggest contract in the sport’s history starting in his sixth season, so it’s time for it to happen. He’s not the only rookie on a contract, with top weapons Colston Loveland, Luther Burden and Rom Odunze on the same timeline.
And then there’s Ben Johnson, the guy I’m on record with I wouldn’t trade for Josh Allen and three first round picks.. When the Colts traded two outs to Sauce Gardner, they counted on Daniel “Dims” Jones and Shane Stishton to deliver the save. When the Bears traded two firsts for Mack, they needed Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy to hold up their end of the bargain.
Landing made me realize how clumsy I’ve always been in trusting who Ben and Caleb had before as head coach and QB. It’s crazy to think that Mac’s business would still be running if it weren’t for the double-doink. That defense was good for at least three years following that trade, so if Simmons can take the Bears anywhere close to that level, Ben and Caleb will take care of the rest on the other side of the football.
My long-term stance on the Bears is that they’re the only Chicago team that actually tries to win, but they’re usually too stupid to pull it off. Hiring Johnson changed the second half of that equation, and getting Williams on his rookie deal made the risk associated with that move a two-way street.
I’ll be 40 next year, and I’ve never seen the Bears win a Super Bowl. If they can’t finish this QB-coach combo, I feel like it’s never going to happen. There’s never been a better time to get the chips in. A trade for Simmons is risky in draft capital alone, but the chance to win it all is worth it.
