Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight Highlights Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan will meet TONIGHT (Saturday, October 31, 2026) at Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Halloween (aka) UFC Vegas 123).
Moicano, 37, is a proud member of a previous generation of lightweights who refuses to be replaced. Chris Duncan tried to pin down the Moicano rankings earlier this year and ended up being thoroughly outed, poked and briefly strangled. Facing a similar challenge to Moicano here is 26-year-old Nolan, a talented up-and-comer looking to break into the title mix. Nolan has won five straight, including one notable upset Price Ziam the last time leading Nolan to the top.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Moicano vs. Nolan Betting odds
Although jiu-jitsu is his standout attribute, Renato Moicano is a fighter who can handle anything. He has a stinging club on his feet, as well as damaging punches and sharp timing on his counter right hand. He is also a strong grappler who can time his double leg takedowns and entries quite well.
Moicano wins this fight by staying calm and using his classic weapons. On the feet, that means stabbing Nolan with a jab as the Aussie tries to set up combinations or counter. When it comes down to it, Moicano isn’t significantly smaller than Nolan; their spans are only inches apart. There’s no reason why Moicano shouldn’t hit Nolan, especially since a landed punch often comes in kind.
If Moicano knows a hit is coming, it’s easy to remove – just ask Benoit Saint Denis.
In the long run, Moicano will probably win this fight on the canvas. We saw Nolan slow down against Ziam and he tried to wrestle changes in the first two rounds and won! If Moicano can find top position against a similarly tiring opponent, he’ll have the best game to really make Nolan pay.
Nolan is a versatile young talent. He is first and foremost a striker, a strict and powerful puncher who uses a variety of Muay Thai weapons. Despite his length and reach, Nolan is comfortable in the pocket and doesn’t shy away from trading up at times. His last match against Ziam really showed off his wrestling and physicality as he won that match by pushing harder in the scramble for the most part.
In this fight, Nolan doesn’t want to grapple with a more decorated jiu-jitsu player. He has to expend a lot of energy to keep up, and that’s a questionable strategy in a five-round fight. He’s better off using his range and speed, advantages that should translate much deeper into the fight.
If Nolan can ease Moicano’s sting, he’ll have a much easier night at the office. There are countless ways to take the sting out. For example, Nolan could score a lead at the same time as Moicano lands a jab. He could slide in or out and come back with fists. He could spend most of the fight on the southpaw, extend his lead hand to capture Moicano’s left side, and then try to fold over the elbows or land punches from that position.
Whichever path Nolan prefers, it’s always good to take away the opponent’s best weapon.
Moicano vs. Nolan Prediction
Renato Moicano was in rare form last time out, giving the talented newcomer a complete head start. In his previous loss Beneil DariushMoicano looked much more sluggish and was held down for two rounds after a strong start. So the question is, which Moicano will show up at UFC Vegas 123?
No one can answer that question, but I wonder if Dariush deserves more credit for making Moicano look mediocre. The Iranian standout is a truly outstanding grappler and grappler, a rare fighter who can play the game with Moicano and come out on top. If Nolan is trying to emulate Dariush by polishing Moicano like Ziami, I don’t think it will work out so well for him. On his feet, Nolan has more size and athleticism than a thoughtful striker. Like Duncan, I see him running right into Moicano’s jab and counters, and realize that’s not a winning strategy.
Moicano seems to be more skilled everywhere and the question is whether Nolan’s youth/Moicano’s aging is enough of a factor to close the gap. For now, I say the lightweight old guard will put another point on the table with a contest win.
Prediction: Via Moicano decision
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