Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll be covering the past week in quarterbacking in the NFL – from the most interesting passers, the most interesting plays and stories to a few other things that caught my eye while watching film this week.
This week, we’ll evaluate JJ McCarthy’s first start for the Giants, understand what’s behind Daniel Jones’ regression, and look at a defensive trend that’s yielding (most) passers around the league.
Let’s talk about the quarterbacks.
The 2024 first-round pick is certainly making the most of this opportunity to start for the Giants, but let’s recap McCarthy before we label McCarthy as the next Sam Darnold or pitch and berate his former coach, Kevin O’Connell, for not getting more out of him.
Sunday’s game against the Texans was arguably the best of his career against a quality defense — so the 2025 game against the Cowboys defense doesn’t qualify — and produced the strongest points. McCarthy hit Malik Nabers with a perfectly placed behind-the-shoulder ball on a fade route from the slot.
He lined up again with Nabers on a corner street with narrow windows.
He hit Malachi Fields on a sail route between two defenders.
Those are definitely good throws, but they’re the kind of throws we’ve already seen McCarthy make in Minnesota.
McCarthy has always been willing to make those really tough shots on the perimeter; whether he can do it consistently is another matter. McCarthy shoots with enough speed to draw them, but it takes a lot of effort. Here he almost throws himself out of his shoes trying to muscle a ball down the sideline.
Here’s another max pitch that ends up looking like a sinking fastball that the catcher has to dig out.
When McCarthy consistently hits these deep perimeter shots, he looks like an entry-level quarterback. But these aren’t high-probability shots — not even for quarterbacks with elite wing talent. McCarthy had the lowest drop success rate of any player in Week 7, which illustrates how volatile a passing offense built around deep throws can be.
And McCarthy still has no other pitches to go to when he can’t connect. He lacks the accuracy to consistently work downfield and the touch to throw it over the middle. McCarthy’s biggest problem, which the Vikings desperately tried to fix, is his desire to throw every ball as hard as possible. This can make short passes more difficult to catch than they should be.
If McCarthy can continue to hit deep, perimeter passes consistently, I’d expect this hot start to turn into a full season. He’s off to a good start, hitting 8-of-13 on 10-yard attempts and has been targeting outside the numbers, but it will take a much larger sample to prove he can do it repeatedly.
I’ll buy into the redemption narrative if that continues, or if McCarthy shows he can stay effective when those deep shots aren’t connected.
With the Colts firing longtime general manager Chris Ballard and trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner for pennies on the dollar, Indianapolis could be in the midst of a deadline sale. If this team is flying the white flag in 2026, I have a suggestion: bench Daniel Jones and see what young backups Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard can do.
Coach Shane Steichen says he’s not considering benching Jones after he threw a game-clinching game against the Vikings on Sunday. His late-game interception was his seventh of the season and the performance dragged his QBR to 40.3, 31st in the league. That’s lower than his 2024 QBR when the Giants cut him midseason.
The 2026 version of Jones looks a lot like the quarterback who caught fire in New York two seasons ago. And that’s why it’s probably a good time for Indianapolis to cut it. Jones doesn’t look completely healthy, which makes sense considering he’s less than a year removed from tearing an Achilles. Watching Jones play in 2026 is a lot like watching Kirk Cousins in Atlanta when the veteran quarterback was coming off the same injury. He doesn’t look very mobile — which matters more to Jones than to Cousins — and he looks uncomfortable when throwing in motion.
Daniel Jones has made more tackles (7) than tackles (4) this year as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in some stats. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
Even the numbers support this. Jones is averaging 1.3 yards per rush attempt, according to Next Generation Stats. That’s not even Kyler Murray’s full value! In 2025, he averaged 7.7 yards per punt. His completion percentage has dropped from 73% in 2025 to 25% this season. His success rate has dropped from 50% to 13%. Jones’ inability to complete passes on the move is the main difference between his performance this season and what the Colts saw in 2025.
Last season, the passing game was built around Jones’ ability to move. The Colts used him with the shoe and the bat to move the pocket and simplify his reads. Those plays haven’t been nearly as effective in 2026, and that has had a domino effect on the rest of the offense. Jones hasn’t been accurate down the field, and he’s not a quick processor who can create short pass defenses. Jones has always needed an offense built around his skills to succeed. I’m not sure there is an offense with Jones in his current form.
I doubt Richardson or Leonard would improve the Colts offense, but sitting Jones would protect him from further injury and prevent bad habits from forming and carrying over into next season.
A PSA to all NFL QBs: Prepare for double A-Gap looks
It’s been 17 years since Jim Johnson’s death, but the former Eagles defensive coordinator’s impact is still felt throughout the league. Defensive coaches around the league are spamming his “double-A-gap” fronts to put NFL quarterbacks in a mental tizzy. Even if you’re unfamiliar with the concept, you’ll recognize this defensive look if you’ve watched any games this season: two linebackers flank the center while the rest of the defensive line is spread outside the guards.
Defensive coordinators have been throwing these looks at quarterbacks for more than a quarter century, but they’ve really ramped up their use over the past few seasons. In 2025, we saw 684 returns against the double A-gap look, per Pro Football Focus; in 2026, we’re on pace for 928! That hasn’t been a fun development for quarterbacks, who are averaging -0.24 expected points added per game in those snaps.
Most of those have come in obvious passing situations, when defensive play callers can get creative with blitzes and coverage disguises. Putting six guys on the line of scrimmage forces the offense to adjust their defense. It also creates anxiety for the quarterback, who must be ready for a full hit.
Defenses have sent a sweeper on just over 13% of their double-A-gap snaps this season, but the offense still needs a solid defensive plan just in case. They will often hold a run to block, which can also play into a defense’s hands when they drop. This gives them one less receiver to cover.
These looks can really mess up a quarterback’s process if they don’t have confidence in their defense. And defensive coordinators can smell that from a mile away. If they sense any weakness, they will pack the line of scrimmage and go on a date of offense to settle it all. The Eagles have seen the most double A-gap appearances this season with 24. The Colts are second (23), followed by the Packers and Buccaneers (22), with most of those coming against rookie Jalon Daniels.
You’re most likely to see these “stolen” looks against raw quarterbacks, but even some of the best quarterbacks have had trouble against them this season. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye and Josh Allen all have sub-80 passer ratings against dual A gap fronts, per PFF. Meanwhile, crafty vets like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have carved them up.
Jordan Love is my favorite quarterback to deal with these looks. His ability to make those fadeaway shots combined with his ambition as a passer on the court makes him a particularly fun watch.
Love is also a quick handler — an underrated aspect of his game — and Packers coach Matt LaFleur called him “the best I’ve been around in terms of defenses and adjustments,” which also helps him handle the pressure, real or imagined, created by the Double-A look. They test every aspect of playing quarterback.
That’s what made Caleb Williams’ touchdown throw against the Patriots so impressive.
The Patriots, one of the league leaders in double-A-gap snaps, filled the line of scrimmage by showing the blitz. Williams made a defensive adjustment just in case New England sent the house, and when they didn’t, he kept his nerve in the pocket, read the coverage and found Rome Odunze in a small pocket of space downfield with a great throw.
When a quarterback makes a play like that, the defensive coordinator just needs to tip his hat and dare him to do it again. The best defensive coordinators will continue to throw these looks out there, expecting a quarterback to slip.
The Buccaneers asked very little of Baker Mayfield in his return from a thumb injury. He attempted just three passes over 6 yards, but he hit one longer pass for a touchdown. That was enough to defeat a Panthers team that played like it had never practiced before. Atlanta’s defense should provide a better test for Mayfield.
Since I’ve already covered my current shot of the week pick—Williams hits Odunze at scrimmage against the Patriots—I’ll go with another one from the Bears quarterback. This fireball that moved the chains on a third-and-11 switch.
That ball traveled 29.6 yards in 1.1 seconds. It was a racket, and Williams gets style points for ducking the rush before releasing it, according to Next Generation Stats.
I’m not sure what Jones was thinking when he let this go. Tight end Will Mallory is bracketed by two defenders and Harrison Smith is in perfect position to pick off the pass at the seam.
