Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll be covering the past week in quarterbacking in the NFL – from the most interesting passers, the most interesting plays and stories to a few other things that caught my eye while watching film this week.
This week, we’ll break down some stories surrounding Caleb Williams, check in on Aaron Rodgers’ fight against Father Time, and check in on Jayden Daniels’ development.
Let’s talk about the quarterbacks.
The narrative of Caleb Williams’ game has taken many twists and turns since the Bears first drafted him in 2024. Before that draft, some evaluators wondered if his downfield style would translate to the pro game and a torrid rookie season that included 68 sacks and several This isn’t the Pac-12 moments for Williams, reinforced those concerns.
Even after Williams bounced back in his sophomore year — with a big assist from Ben Johnson — the story stuck. Skeptics pointed to his high shooting time and low completion percentage as evidence that he still lacked the ability to consistently play at a high level, making him a poor fit in Ben Johnson’s offense.
Williams has spent the past two years slowly chipping away at that perception. He has cut his sack rate in half since his rookie season and is now leading the NFL in completion percentage. That just leaves prime time to throw as the last remaining pre-draft concern. Williams’ average drop lasts 3.24 seconds before the ball is snapped, the highest in the league, according to Next Generation Stats.
Because timing and quick processing are seen as hallmarks of NFL quarterback play, a high average time to throw is often considered bad. I don’t think this point of view is off base. Many quarterbacks who struggle to get the ball out in time or throw with anticipation lead the time to throw leaderboard. But there are exceptions, and at this point, Williams is definitely one of them.
Williams’ performance against the Seahawks defense on Monday night should erase any lingering doubts about the sustainability of his success. Williams was the first quarterback to throw for more than 200 yards against Seattle. He completed over 70% of his passes and only had one sack. When the opportunity to unload the ball quickly was there, Williams took it. When the situation called for Williams to improvise, he made plays like this:
And this:
This last play illustrates why I have no qualms about Williams’ time to throw. He empties the pocket, but only after going through his progression. And he caps it off by hitting Colston Loveland with a perfect pass while running over 13 mph. The time to throw in that game was 5.49 seconds, which contributed to his 3.29 average on the night. That’s even higher than his season average. Now ask yourself: Did you leave that game thinking Williams held the ball too long?
The same question applies to his other games in 2026. Here’s a breakdown of all 16 of Williams’ “scrimmage drills” this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
You can count the number of times Williams turns down an open target or leaves a clean pocket on one hand and still has a few fingers free. According to PFF, Williams has fumbled from a clean pocket on 1.8% of his losses, which is lower than most quarterbacks and just 0.1% higher than Matthew Stafford, who is essentially stationary at this point. Chicago’s young star only really gets out of the pocket when he’s forced to — and from there, he becomes one of the league’s most effective players.
Williams is supplementing that magic outside the structure with high-level efficiency inside the structure. No quarterback averages more expected points added per drop from a clean pocket. In those games, Williams’ time to throw drops to 2.72 seconds, which ties him with Jared Goff, the quarterback Williams supposedly had to be more suited to fit into Johnson’s scheme.
A stat that shows what defensive coordinators think about Aaron Rodgers
The Steelers are 6-2 and within striking distance of the AFC lead, but it still feels like the fate of the season hinges on one question: How washed up is Aaron Rodgers?
I shared my thoughts at the end of September, highlighting some stats related to Rodgers’ struggles in games where he’s forced to hold the ball a little longer and his inability to connect on shots from tight windows. It appears that defensive coordinators around the league agree with that assessment based on how they are calling plays against the 42-year-old quarterback. Through eight games, Rodgers has recorded a league-leading 110 dropbacks against man coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. No other quarterback has more than 65 man downs.
This is an important gap. The league’s coverage rate has decreased significantly in 2026, largely because offenses have become so good at exploiting it with condensed formations that create leverage advantages for receivers and route combinations that create natural picks for defenders. But against Rodgers, defensive coordinators feel free to increase their coverage usage. They have not yet been punished for this.
I think opponents are choosing to play this way against Rodgers for a few reasons. For starters, tight coverage allows defenders to cut off route time and forces quarterbacks to hold the ball longer. Throwing in tighter windows also narrows the margin of error when it comes to putting the ball. And since Rodgers isn’t much of a threat as a tackle, defenses don’t have to worry about running backs out of the pocket.
Rodgers gets worse the deeper he gets into a game; he’s lost the accurate ball placement he possessed at the height of his powers (ranking 31st in PFF’s “plus accuracy” metric); and he is completely uninterested in leaving the pocket these days. Add it all up, and the man’s heavy game plans make a lot of sense.
Rodgers’ scheme preferences are also contributing to the abnormally high man coverage rate Pittsburgh faces. The veteran quarterback has always preferred to play in the shotgun with his receivers spread across the field, which provides a clearer preview of the defense. On the other hand, those static spread formations make it more difficult to exploit man coverage with option plays and don’t offer the same leverage advantages you get with condensed formations. And Rodgers has never been a big proponent of the pre-snap move, another offensive tactic used to beat man coverage.
Maybe Sunday’s win over Cleveland will change his mind. Two of Pittsburgh’s biggest plays in the passing game came in the same design, with Darnell Washington moving into a formation set that created a lot of traffic for his defender to navigate.
Those were relatively easy shots for Rodgers. The play design got Washington open early so Rodgers didn’t have to carry the ball. The passing window was open, giving him more room for error. If defenses insist on playing man coverage, the Steelers need to run more of these plays. That will require Rodgers to accept his limitations, which may be too much of a ask for the famously stubborn quarterback.
If you are familiar with Betteridge’s Law of Titlesyou already know where this is going.
But let me say this: while I have my concerns about Jayden Daniels’ development, I believe his skill set gives him a top-10 ceiling. Whether he can stay on the court long enough to get the reps he needs to reach that ceiling is another question. That’s been the main issue for Daniels, who hasn’t shown much improvement since his breakout rookie season and has fallen behind classmates Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
Daniels’ injury history would be less concerning if grappling wasn’t an integral part of his game. Chiefs coach Dan Quinn has stressed the need to protect Daniels since his rookie season, but his tackle rate increased in 2025 and while it’s down a few percentage points in 2026, it’s still among the highest in the league. Daniels also leads the league in tackle rate from a clean pocket, according to Pro Football Focus. The gap between Daniels and second-ranked Kyler Murray is as wide as the gap between Murray and 18th-ranked CJ Stroud.
Highest tackle rates from a clean pocket:
| Jayden Daniels, WSH | 9.3% |
| Kyler Murray, MIN | 5.9% |
| Drake Maye, NE | 5.1% |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | 5.0% |
| Malik Willis, MIA | 5.0% |
Daniels is truly in a league of his own when it comes to giving up a clean pocket.
Many of those scrimmages have been productive and kept Washington’s offense going, but the increased risk of injury is a major drawback.
The clash still seems like a crutch for Daniels. While he has secured a high floor early in his career, we won’t see the 25-year-old take the next step. That’s not to say Daniels shouldn’t rely on his mobility. But it would be easier to remain optimistic about his long-term durability if more of those out-of-structure plays turned into downfield passes rather than runs that expose him to hits.
I had to write about the Geno Smith renaissance in New York, but the Jets can’t win any of the games in which he plays well. And we don’t celebrate losers here at the QB Notebook — unless it’s Justin Herbert, of course.
Regardless of the Jets’ record, Smith is putting together a solid comeback campaign. He currently ranks ninth in PFF’s rankings, and his 14 “big throws” rank fifth in the league. Smith also has the eighth-lowest game-to-turnover percentage, so he balances that big-play hunting with solid decision-making.
That combination makes him a reasonable fit for offenses that prioritize passing down the field. There are several teams in purple that fit that bill. I’m looking at you, Baltimore and Minnesota.
ATTN: Kevin O’Connell and Declan Doyle.
We might just have to name this section after Herbert at this point. (Mumble) The rest of his tape was pretty solid if you just ignore the two horrible interceptions.
