Twenty-seven percent of the players left in Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and now I completely understand Adam’s aversion to recommending them, EVER, for Survivor. It’s not much different than being a Buffalo Bills fan.
My choice of Detroit had my heart in my throat and my nails in the arm of the sofa for several minutes of panic. Coming down to a missed two-point conversion in overtime isn’t the kind of win I’m confidently taking into Week 2. But eight of our top ten favorites have pulled off wins in Week 1.
Let’s run through our picks for week 2 with general strategy, choke picks, and contrarian picks.
Week 2 of the NFL survivor pool strategy
Renee Miller: I was a bit shocked by the close call in week 1, looking to take on the easy W again in week 2. Who looked the worst last week? Sometimes picking the team you want to win is easier than picking the winner. I’m definitely looking at Miami and Cleveland. So does Atlanta. Until more information is available, I’m eliminating those pesky New Orleans Saints along with the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals. Even Chicago’s 59-point offensive outburst showed unbelievable defense this week, especially against division rival Minnesota, who scored 39 points.
For me, Week 2 is about getting a team that had a strong defensive start to face a sloppy offense. It takes a few weeks to really understand how new players and coaches produce on the field and I’m looking to be as confident as I can be right now. I know there will be weeks where tough decisions will be needed, but I don’t want to make it this early in the season.
Adam Gretz: Think you’re shell shocked? Imagine my trepidation as I watched the Cardinals set themselves up for a first-and-goal and make the game against the Week 1 pick.
I shouldn’t be shocked that my chargers burned me, but somehow I still am. That pick, in that matchup, I thought was as close to Chargers-proof as you could get. And honestly, my faith in the Chargers wasn’t just my faith in them, but my lack of faith in a Cardinals team that for several weeks seemed to be a popular target opponent for your pool. I still believe you will be a good group to target. But they deserve credit for causing chaos. I’m generally a fan of chaos in sports, but not when I’m at the end. Such is life in the NFL.
As for Week 2, and especially if you can buy back into your pool after trusting the Chargers, the key is not only to make sure you get to Week 3, but to try to erase the volume he saw in Week 1.
Given how small teams have played their starters in the preseason, Week 1 could produce some shaky results and are not indicative of what’s to come this season.
Are the Baltimore Ravens that good? Are the Indianapolis Colts bad? Will Arizona exceed everyone’s expectations? Did the Rams simply get burned by a stupid travel schedule? We’ll begin to find answers to these questions (and more) in the coming weeks. In the meantime, there are still some favorable matchups that will give you a good chance of making it to next week.
Don’t just trust chargers. Not even in Las Vegas.
Offense takes center stage in Week 1
Mike Sandow
2nd week of lime selection
Renee: San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
I told you I would be clear. I’m good at playing checkers this week.
San Francisco was efficient and effective on both sides of the ball last Thursday night in Australia, showing off the preseason Super Bowl favorite Rams. I’m not going to argue with LA’s travel decision, but a rested and healthy 49ers team gets the job done. With determination.
The 49ers proved they have plenty of playmakers for Brock Purdy, even though rookie darling Deshaun Striling was injured in the game. Veteran tight end George Kittle will have another 10 days off and should play more in week 2. In addition, Miami just gave up 147 total yards and two points to Ashton Jeanty, who served as the main receiver of the Las Vegas Raiders. That bodes well for Christian McCaffrey and Calon Black this week.
On the other side of the ball, Miami’s lone bright spot was rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas. If the Raiders can hold you to 13 points, the 49ers defense will shut you down. This is the biggest mismatch of the week, and maybe the season. Do yourself a favor and move on to week 3 with SF as you just chose.
Adam: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Cleveland Browns
While the first week could have a lot of odd results and consistent results that you have to deal with, I think the Dolphins and Browns gave a good indication of what they are and what they can become. Those are two bad lists with major quarter questions. The Browns’ quarterback situation isn’t even a question as a problem, and there simply isn’t enough talent on the roster to help make up for it.
This is a bad team. Very bad team.
I don’t like Tampa Bay this season, but I don’t hate the way the Bucks played in their loss to Cincinnati. They had some problems, but sometimes they moved the ball before they started moving the balls.
I don’t expect Baker Mayfield to drive three times again. I don’t expect them to lose four again as a team.
I also like Mayfield’s revenge game angle against his former team.
Looking at Tampa Bay’s schedule, I don’t see many opportunities that I would be excited about picking them again. They aren’t often serious dogs, but there are plenty of coin-flip games out there. This should not be one of them.
2nd week opposite choices
Renee: New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Patriots are heavy favorites, but not many are expected to be picked in the remaining pools this week, thanks in part to the overall collapse we saw in Seattle last week. That is an ideal combination for the opposite choice. If you mock Jacksonville or Chicago in week two, you might feel more challenged than picking San Francisco.
To be clear, I am not. I am choosing SF. But I’m betting on the Patriots to win. And Cover here. I watched the game, and I know Drake Maye looks terrible (more than the others in silver and blue), but with some more game receipts coming in, I think we can forgive the Pats for this ugly opening loss while giving Seattle a lot more credit.
New England is simply the more talented team in this game. They’re home, 11 days off and reflecting on that season-opening loss. They will be all kinds of eager to show who they are to the world. Really they are.
The Steelers, meanwhile, saw their win at home against the QB-less Falcons largely due to their defense and the play of Chris Boswell. Offensively, there wasn’t much to be proud of. Pittsburgh’s defense is the reason New England is the contrarian pick this week. He was upset that the game was in New England and the Pats had more rest and time to make up for mistakes made in Week 1, but the Steelers are not the team I coach.
Adam: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
I live in Pittsburgh. I follow the Steelers very closely. I’ve seen a lot of their games. And I think that’s a pretty strong counter-choice. Although I think New England is due for a rebound this year, I can’t imagine them folding at home like they did a week ago. I also still lack confidence in the Steelers offense, even with a more offensive-minded coach.
As for my opposite pick, yes, it might seem crazy to pick a team that allowed 59 points in Week 1, but there are two things to keep in mind here. One of the opposite choices is to go slightly with the grain. Second, the 2026 Falcons are not the 2026 Bears.
There were few things to like about Carolina’s offensive performance in Week 1, including Bryce Young throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns. The Falcons don’t have a great defense to begin with, and they’re still missing their top edge rushers. That continues to be a problem.
Atlanta’s problem is the quarterback situation. It’s still brutal, and that limits what playmakers like Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London can do to make an impact.
Cooper Rush was miserable in Pittsburgh on Sunday, and there’s been no word (yet) from coach Kevin Stefanski regarding his Week 2 start. Given the health of the three quarterbacks, there’s probably no good option because I can’t imagine any of them being 100 percent here. Even if Rush is 100 percent, he’s the third-string quarterback for some reason.
Carolina swept the season series against Atlanta, and considering what the offense did a week ago and the injury situation against the Falcons, I like the odds.
