Week 1 doesn’t make a season, and a sparkling debut doesn’t always lead to a crown (looking at you, 2025 Joe Burrow and the scourge of the grass-toed royals).
But boy is it fun to overreact.
Today, we review the field after the Week 1 recap and make a bold prediction about who could win this season’s MVP.
After last year’s first week of games, winner Matthew Stafford was at +3500 odds, which shows his odds of winning are less than 3 percent. The favorite was Lamar Jackson, who was later hampered by injuries and finished with a career-low rushing score.
To say: – What I said at the beginning! But let’s make a prediction anyway.
NFL MVP Odds: Who’s the Leader After Week 1?
Enter: Iceman.
Okay, sure, it was Caleb Williams. Already in 10 to start the seasonbut just barely. In a 59-point debut (269 yards, 72.4 percent completion rate, two TDs), Williams jumped off the board and into the conversation. He is now ahead of Joe Burrow at +700 on DraftKings, tied with Burrow at BetMGM (+900) and behind him at FanDuel (+850 vs. +900). That puts Williams in the top three or four, depending on the book.
I asked Chicago Bears reporter Kevin Fishbein to outline how seriously we should take this first trip and Williams’ case this year.
It’s weird to type the words “Bears” and ‘MVP’ and ‘quarterback’ in the same paragraph and not get the word processor (remember that?). The league’s charter franchise has won one Most Valuable Player award overall, and that was Walter Payton in 1977. Fishbain said. But this is a sign of just how high Williams’ ceiling will be.
You can tell he’s been dialing in all summer and making improvements. The operation was simple, it was a frying pan. The weight is reduced and it looks faster. Then all he did in Week 1 was a performance with a high completion rate and four total touchdowns… and he can do more. “Hard Numbers.”
Da Bears!
Who are the NFL’s Week 1 passing leaders as of 2020?
Robert Mays and Derek Klassen
But okay, Chicago, let’s put our excitement about Williams on hold for now because he’ll have to get past perennial MVP finalist Josh Allen to win the MVP.
Allen remains the MVP favorite after a signature performance against the team that holds his number (Houston), and the Buffalo Bills look formidable with coach Joe Brady. As has been the case over the past few years, it was Allen who lost this awards race.
After starting high in odds and expectations, Jackson and Barrow have held strong in the early weeks.
Two other QBs who stepped up in Week 1? Brooke Purdy and Trevor Lawrence. Purdy and Lawrence were both roughly 5 percent odds to win before Week 1, and both have a nice little bump on the board, though they still sit at an implied 6.25 percent chance.
Purdy performed in Australia with three touchdowns against the rival Los Angeles Rams, who, to be fair, appeared to be afflicted with plane-leg syndrome.
Lawrence, meanwhile, finished Week 18 18-23 for 245 yards and four (4!) touchdowns against a Myles Garrett-less Cleveland Browns defense. Given the way Lawrence finished last season (well! 19 TDs and one interception over the final six regular season games), could he be on the verge of a true resurgence? Or is going back in the future?
Justin Herbert is coming down.
Now, the reaction to the Los Angeles Chargers’ first outing could be one of the biggest. AboveWeek 1 Response. Give them a few weeks before saying they were the most overrated team in the league (not even the most overrated team in Los Angeles, some might say?).
After a shock loss to the Arizona Cardinals, Herbert had one touchdown, one interception and three sacks, dropping QBs from third to 10th in offense.
The Mike McDaniels era in LA is off to an amazing start.
