True surprises are rare in the NFL MVP race. It’s an award driven by quarterbacks and especially by the greats at the position.
The last time a non-quarterback won the NFL MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, although he has been pushed by Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey in recent years.
When Matthew Stafford won last season, he had the longest preseason lead since Lamar Jackson’s first MVP award in 2019. Jackson was 40-to-1 when he won.
Before Stafford, the past four winners — Josh Allen in 2024, Jackson in 2023, Patrick Mahomes in 2022 and Aaron Rodgers in 2021 — were among the top 6 in preseason odds. Still, it’s not often that the preseason favorite wins the award. Tom Brady was the last to do so in 2017. Allen, Mahomes and Rodgers were second in the preseason.
That’s the story of Allen, the current MVP favorite heading into this season. The Buffalo Bills quarterback is the favorite on both FanDuel (+550) and DraftKings (+600). This is not uncharted territory for Allen, who was a preseason favorite in 2022 and has been among the top four MVP favorites at the start of each season since 2021.
Jackson, a two-time MVP winner, is second on DraftKings at +800 and third on FanDuel at +1100 (along with Justin Herbert and Drake Maye). Joe Burrow, who has yet to win the MVP, is ahead of Jackson on FanDuel (+1000) and behind him on DraftKings (+850).
The remaining contenders on the slate are an unsurprising list of established starting pitchers around the league: Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, Mahomes and reigning MVP Stafford.
Mahomes is also there, but there are questions about how he will play coming off an ACL injury. DraftKings has it at +1000 while FanDuel is more skeptical at +1700. Mahomes added Kansas City running back Kenneth Walker III to give him more help on offense. Will it be enough?
They are the longest odds Mahomes has had to win MVP early in a season since 2018, when he first won the award. The Texas Tech product was a five-time MVP between 2019 and 2024, the only time he wasn’t on that run was in 2022 when he won his second MVP.
Which quarterback needs to make the biggest jump this season?
Mike Sandow
Williams is a newcomer to the top handful of MVP contenders. The third-year Chicago Bears quarterback is +1200 on DraftKings and +1700 on FanDuel, which puts him in the top 10.
Williams led the Bears to the NFC North title and a playoff berth last season, but some cynics think the Bears are due for a rebound this season. Wide receiver DJ Moore is now paired with Allen in Buffalo, but Williams is still armed with a capable array of pass rushers. Rom Odunze took a big step forward in Year 2 when he was healthy. If Luther Barden III and Colston Loveland make similar jumps in their second year in the league, the Bears’ receiving corps could be very strong and allow Williams to put up big numbers.
The top non-quarterbacks on the board are Detroit Lions running back Jahmir Gibbs and Atlanta Falcons running back BJean Robinson. Gibbs is 45-to-1 on FanDuel and an eye-popping 120-t0-1 on DraftKings. Robinson comes in at 60-to-1 on FanDuel and 100-to-1 on DraftKings.
Week 1 will feature some marquee games that will allow some players to make an early impression in the MVP race. Maye and the New England Patriots travel to Seattle in a Super Bowl rematch on Wednesday. Stafford appears with Super Bowl favorite The Los Angeles Rams take on the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night. Finally, Mahomes will test his knee on Monday night against the Denver Broncos.
