“It puts a bit of pressure on United. They have City next week and the European games starting in midweek.”
Prophetic words from Gary Neville after Manchester United’s 2-2 draw with Everton. While it may only be September, he’s not wrong. The pressure is on Michael Carrick and suddenly, this week already feels season-defining.
When the 2026/27 Premier League fixture list came out, United were deemed to have The statistically easiest opening six games. At the halfway mark, they have dropped more points than they have won.
It only gets tougher from this point on. As Neville rightly points out, United kick off their Champions League campaign on Thursday night against Azerbaijan champions Sabah, before the first Manchester derby of the season three days later.
Given the nature of the two opponents, you’d imagine Carrick will consider spinning on Thursday. This makes it the first time we really see what his team has to offer, rather than his favorite team. But does he have good enough production?
The general consensus is that United’s business in the transfer market has left them short-handed, with a squad unable to cope with three games a week due to an over-reliance on the same names.
According to Transfer marketUnited actually have the second biggest squad in the Premier League. However, the balance of that team is what creates the problem.
They rank higher with their depth in forward areas. However, they rank eighth in midfield and 10th in defence. Take a deeper look at the specialist positions and you’ll find they’re ninth in depth at right wing and 18th at left wing, a position that’s constantly debated due to Luke Shaw’s injury history.
They only have themselves to blame for that problem, mind you. Only Everton and Liverpool have placed less emphasis on investment at the back than the Red Devils since 2022.
Imbalance is a problem. The other is the gap in quality between the starting 11 and the squad after the changes.
Despite the financial constraints that seem to be in place within the club, there’s no getting away from the fact that they have the highest net spend of any team in the Premier League since 2022. However, said spending has yet to build a unit that is truly competitive for places.
Net human expenditure
Using the Everton game as a single example, Carrick made his first substitutions in the 70th minute. Below is a rundown of some of the key changes in the data from that point onwards, and how it would look to line up with United’s score in the previous 70 minutes.
Essentially, once the substitutions are made, United’s territorial identity changes. As they play more in the opposition half, it is less meaningful as they are not finding passes in the final third and there is a drop in chances created.
They’re also getting less involved in duels, causing them to put more pressure on themselves and accept a lot more opportunities. Now, you have to consider the context of the situation. Everton are following the match. It is unlikely to be exactly the same during the last 20 minutes as it was during the first 70 minutes.
However, it points out that when Carrick turns to his wing players, they are not producing enough for him. The exception is obviously Benjamin Sesko, but a sub doesn’t translate into enough squad depth.
It’s not just against Everton, this trend is evident. You can also see it against Hull.
You can look at that record and think ‘but United have actually improved after making substitutions’. However, four of the starting XI against the Tigers were dropped in the next two games, with Carrick having to use his squad in the opening match as the players are still building their fitness. The changes he made brought the squad closer to the XI that would be selected to face Ipswich and Everton.
Herein lies the problem. Even if Carrick changes less than 50 per cent of his team, there is a drop in performance. The players in question have no choice but to step up or leave Carrick vulnerable this week – and possibly for the season.
If you’re someone like Leny Yoro, Patrick Dorgu, Andrey Santos or Joshua Zirkzee, Thursday night should present a golden opportunity to show your worth within the squad.
Of course, everyone would like to play in the derby, but getting the European Championship on the right foot is a must. The pressure on them to deliver if they are selected is as great as it will be on the starting core, which will no doubt be selected against City.
Neville spoke about Carrick needing to earn the fans’ trust. So are the aforementioned players. Win the Champions League and you can relax. Fail to deliver and the anxiety around Old Trafford will only grow.
