The NFL trade deadline is more than 24 hours away.
And Monday morning saw the latest big as the teams try and improve before pushing for the playoffs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars moved to upgrade their secondary linebacker by trading for safety Jesse Bates III of the Atlanta Falcons. Here are the full terms of the deal:
- Jaguars receive: Jessie Bates III
- Falcons receive: 2027 second round pick and 2028 fifth round pick
Let’s take some steps.
Jaguars level for Jesse Bates trade
The Jaguars look like one of the NFL’s elite teams.
Entering Week 10, Jacksonville sits at 6-2, three games ahead of the Houston Texans in the AFC South. The Jaguars are a potential playoff team, and they have the metrics to back up their superiority. Jacksonville leads the NFL with a +108 point differential, and the Jaguars are tied with the San Francisco 49ers when looking at the “team ranking,” which examines both offense and defense through the lens of points added. The head of the pack:
So it’s no surprise that general manager James Gladstone was aggressive ahead of the NFL trade deadline. Making a move like this to compete with the Jaguars in an open window makes sense. And word out of Jacksonville in recent days has stated that the Jaguars are looking for “defensive playmakers,” and Bates certainly agrees with that description.
And Atlanta paid most of the contractThis deal helps put Jacksonville in a more favorable light.
What brings it down a bit is the terms of the deal. Bates is in the final year of his contract, and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2027. That could mean a one-year rental for the Jaguars, which should factor into the equation. Now, if Jacksonville were to sign him to a new contract, that would certainly boost the output a bit, but the contact should play a role in the equation here.
Jaguars grade: B (which could be improved with some extra credit, ie, signing Bates to an extension).
The Falcons step up for the Jesse Bates trade
On the one hand, seeing as Atlanta trades away from a key defensive player, given that the Falcons are still in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC South, would be a shock.
The NFC South playoffs can be described as such.
Atlanta sits at 3-6, bottom of the division. But they’re not far behind the first-place Carolina Panthers (3-5 p.m.), and beating the Panthers this season makes a case for Atlanta buying rather than selling.
But if Bates is set to hit free agency, this might be his best chance to get something more than a compensatory pick, and a nice little return on a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick. And with Atlanta set to have more than $100 million in cap space next free agency cycle, there’s also a chance the Falcons won’t get a compensatory pick. If the Falcons are active enough in free agency, that will wipe out any compensatory picks, so getting picks in hand now is also a solid little business.
ESPN predicted the Bates trade over the weekend would cost a third-round pick and a sixth-round pick, so Atlanta appears to have improved on that as well.
