They say there are no perfect quarterback stats. Until now.
just kidding. They (anyone they are) are correct.
Unfortunately, for an analytics nerd like me, there will never be a single, universal metric that accurately measures and captures every quarterback’s play. Football is a complex game with so many variables that a single statistic cannot fully understand.
However, just because perfection doesn’t exist doesn’t mean we should stop trying to improve our tools for evaluating quarterback play.
That’s what we’re chasing with the new statistic: Quarterback Index, or QBI.
QBI is a metric we created that subtracts the contributions from the quarterback’s 10 offensive teammates and only the quarterback’s contribution per game. Again, not perfect; No QB stats. But the hope is that QBI provides a better picture of quarterback quality than traditional stats (passing touchdowns, passing yards, completion rate) as well as more advanced metrics (EPA and success rate).
For those in the know, it’s not the same as ESPN’s QBR, which was created to give QB performance a number. We’re looking to do the same thing, but put our own spin on it.
What is QBI?
QBI is a forward-looking measure of quarterback efficiency that uses play-by-play data, adjusts for context in each play, and recognizes the opponent. Simply put, QBI takes into account passes, hurries, fumbles, sacks, turnovers and other things when the football is in the quarterback’s hands.
But it goes a step deeper and adjusts whether the quarterback is pressured, if the pressure is quick (less than 2.5 seconds), as well as the quality of the offensive line and receivers. QBI factors in an attempt to get the prospect out of recovery – this can work for the quarterback depending on who recovers. QBI also takes into account drops by receivers, as well as yards and uses after the catch Expected YAC model To assign or remove credit from the quarterback. Of course, EPA and success rate are also factors in the model. It’s still worth knowing that a 12-yard completion on third-and-20 isn’t worth the same as a 10-yard completion on third-and-10.
Another area I wanted to incorporate into QBI was the combination of analytics and film. The best way to truly account for what’s happening on the field is a marriage of the two — not one or the other — and that’s where PFF scores matter. There are things that cannot be analyzed in football. Although this may surprise you, I’m glad I found that out.
The last thing you need to know before delving into the QBI rankings from 2025 is my benchmark. I’ve taken a page from the baseball analytics handbook and am using 100 as the “average,” just like baseball’s weighted runs scored and (wRC+) stats. That means you can expect a QBI of 100 average, 101 rookie grade, 124 Pro Bowl-caliber and 133 considered All-Pro.
I went back 20 years to create that balance of quarterback play. But a little about that. For now, let’s look back to 2025:
Caleb’s confusion
Okay, many of you have seen that list and thought to yourself, “How in the world is X called Xth?” Maybe you used a specific name and rank, but I know you didn’t look at the list and agree with everything you saw. And that’s okay. Statistics and ratings are breeding grounds for disagreements. That’s why they entertain.
But to better understand QBI, I wanted to highlight one name that might stand out above the rest. In this case, I’m talking about Madden NFL 27’s cover athlete ranked all the way down at No. 23. Why is Caleb Williams ranked so low? Let me explain the QBI process.
First of all, the Chicago Bears quarterback finished 21st in catch success rate among qualified quarterbacks last year. That’s a tough place to start when a QB is ranked below average by consistently producing successful plays. Then we move on to the supporting cast: QBI Williams didn’t like how ineffective he was despite boasting a clean defense. My model ranks the Bears offensive line as the top pass defense unit in the NFL in 2025.
Williams, who liked QBI, avoided negative plays as he limited both interceptions and sacks, but overall, the downfield efficiency just wasn’t there. That’s not to say QBI won’t give Williams a big boost this year with an improved game. Of course, you could make an argument that QBI thinks Williams still has plenty of room to grow, and that should excite Bears fans as to how high that ceiling goes. But now Williams has work to do before QBI can be considered a top-10 quarterback.
How else can we use QBI?
As I mentioned, I used historical data to help construct the QBI, so I could compare and contrast quarterback play from year to year. This helps to provide historical context. Secondly, I want QBI to be predictive, not simply a retrospective statistic, but only what has already happened.
To that end, I’ve made it possible for QBI to promote quarterback play going forward. Again, this means taking into account not only one year’s data, but the historical situation, because as we all know, the quarterback game can change from year to year. There’s more background on my method, but one interesting note is that I find it useful to minimize the impact of a quarterback’s rookie season when examining a QBI’s projective abilities. Suffice it to say, a QB’s rookie year isn’t always an accurate description of a player who becomes a QB. For a young QB, their rating may seem regressive from the average, and that’s intentional.
Like I said, there’s more to QBI predictions than this, but we’ll leave the in-depth methodology for another day.
Where can I see QBI?
To start, you’ll see the 2026 QBI rankings in Jeff Howe’s NFL QB Stock Report, published every Tuesday morning during the season. The athletics. Warning: At first, the levels may seem strange. This is because the sample size is small. If Jacoby Brissett has two monster games to start the season, you’ll see the Arizona Cardinals quarterback near the top of the QBI rankings. As the season progresses, with more data, the rating should appear more accurate and precise.
Beyond the QB stock report… we’ll see. As I said above, I like QBI to be the industry standard for evaluating quarterback play. (I’m dreaming big!) Ultimately, QBI’s success belongs to you all. So let me know if you like it or if you think it’s the worst QB benchmark you’ve ever seen! And if you think there are ways to make QBI better, fire away. I’m always looking for ways to improve.
That said, let the QB index begin.
