England’s players find themselves in an unusual position: they are favorites to beat Papua New Guinea in their final group game, but underdogs to get out of combined Groups B and C and reach the semi-finals.
They trail Samoa by 68 points on points difference and cannot finish above Tonga due to their head-to-head record, leaving their hopes of progressing dependent on a convincing win and results elsewhere.
That means they must beat Papua New Guinea by as wide a margin as possible, then hope Tonga can beat Samoa enough to give England a path to the semi-finals.
If everything matches, they will go to the semi-finals.
Meanwhile, England’s women face a more straightforward equation. A win against Samoa would secure their place in the semi-finals, but would rank among the biggest wins of their season. They are capable of doing it, but the challenge is clear.
England were beaten 78-0 by the Jillaroos, while Samoa lost 40-0 to the same opposition. These results provide a clear indication of the task ahead.
Both England sides need to show the fighting spirit that has become synonymous with the nation as they look to make their mark on the other side of the world.
Australia ran riot against England after being taught a hard lesson
England’s players may sit third in the international rankings, but they are not looking down. Australia, New Zealand, Tonga and Samoa are all considered ahead of them, despite England whitewashing Tonga and Samoa in recent series.
The group’s complicated structure has done Brian McDermott’s side some favors. They effectively had a chance to put themselves in a strong position and needed to beat Tonga in their opening game to do so. Instead, they lost 30-12.
Even two wins from their remaining games – and convincing ones at that – may not be enough to save their campaign.
But they can be enough.
They may be enough despite England’s players not meeting once before the tournament. They could be good enough despite having only had two training sessions to prepare for their opening group game. They can make do with the odds stacked against them.
Both England teams face an uphill battle, albeit for different reasons. While the men have to overcome a tough qualifying equation, the women face more experienced opponents to play alongside.
Samoa’s women, in particular, boast a squad full of young and emerging talent who play week in and week out in the National Rugby League for Women (NRLW), gaining regular experience in one of the world’s most intense women’s rugby league competitions.
They were seen before the tournament as the team most capable of pushing the Jillaroos closer. But England should not be complacent after their heavy opening defeat. The 2022 Rugby League World Cup offers a reminder of why: England’s men demolished Samoa in their opening match, only to be beaten by them in the semi-finals.
For England women, the equation is simpler: beat Samoa and reach the semi-finals. With their place in the bottom four on the line, they need to show that, despite the women’s game in England still being a work in progress, they can compete with the best on the international stage.
The England women know that a win takes them into the semi-finals
A chance to change the narrative
There has been much discussion about what international rugby league needs to thrive: greater investment, more mid-season internationals and more opportunities for the global game to attract public attention. The need for this support is clear.
The prospect of both English teams reaching the group stage has been described as a potential wake-up call for the sport in this hemisphere – a chance to invest in players, give more importance to the international game and find a way to close the gap on the other side of the world.
But this is not a new conversation. After England’s players failed at the 2008 World Cup, figures at the top of the sport reviewed what had gone wrong. Many of them remain influential today, underscoring how long these questions have persisted.
Failure can force change. But perhaps the biggest shock – and the most powerful catalyst – would be for England to succeed when so few expect it.
If the men and women both defy the odds and reach the semi-finals, it would be more than a sporting triumph. It would be a statement that English rugby league can compete, and an opportunity to build momentum for the international game rather than waiting for another failure to force the issue.
England manager Brian McDermott has been vocal about how difficult the situation is for England
Seeing England differently
McDermott said before the tournament that a visit to just one NRL club would show how remarkable it is that England can compete, given the infrastructure available Down Under. The playing field is so uneven that England’s position in the international elite is an achievement in itself.
Too often, we judge England’s rugby league teams by how far they still have to go. But is it time to look instead at how much they have achieved despite the disadvantages they face?
Could this be the catalyst for people to recognize the potential of English rugby league and give it the support it deserves?
Sport has long sought its lightbulb moment: the spark that sets change in motion, the first domino to fall. Perhaps, rather than needing another setback to force that change, this could be the tournament in which success provides the catalyst.
A long shot remains. England know the task ahead is monumental, but they press on regardless.
They will take that fight into their clashes with Papua New Guinea and Samoa, and by Sunday we will know how far their tenacity has taken them.
For England, it’s not about the resources they lack, but the fight they show and what they can achieve against the odds.
