There’s been a lot of talk this season about the value of spreading a high-profile quarterback. For someone like Lamar Jackson, it’s a lot – up to 6 points or more.
We’re getting a sampling of that value in Week 9 college football odds featuring Ohio State QB Julian Sayin vs. USC and much beyond. And the impact is not that great.
“With college, it’s not much of a difference, just 2 or 2.5 points,” Caesars Sports head of football merchandising Joey Feazel said. “With a team like Ohio State that stacks up from top to bottom, it doesn’t make as much of a difference as it does in the NFL.”
Tipsters and punters offer their insights on Ohio State-USC, the Florida-Georgia clash, FOX’s big midday kickoff at Wisconsin-Iowa and more in college football Week 8 betting.
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Likely, the Week 8 college football odds are Florida vs. Georgia.
The Bulldogs are 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS), coming off a big upset loss to Auburn. Georgia was the home favorite by 19.5 points and fell 27-24.
Florida (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) is also coming off a bye, but after a much better record. The Gators were a 13.5-point road underdog against Texas and won 27-24 to stop a two-game skid.
Caesars Sports opened Georgia as a 10.5-point favorite for this neutral-site contest in Atlanta, with a 3:30 pm ET start. And Thursday morning, the line was down to -12.5, with stops at -11/-11.5/-12 along the way.
Sharp action in Georgia -10.5 got the ball rolling.
“There’s more money for Georgia for sure, but not a huge difference yet,” Feazel said. “But I foresee a lot more money coming to Georgia, especially on Saturday. And there’s going to be a lot of money lines in Georgia.
“We’re going to need Florida to hang in there.”
The total went from 56.5 to 55.5 earlier in the week and is now down to 55.
“A little bit sharper money for the Under 56.5,” Feazel said.
The books hope Florida can keep it close to Georgia (Getty Images).
College Football Rocks On FOX
Iowa (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) will likely have its College Football Playoff hopes dashed in Week 8. The Hawkeyes were 7.5-point favorites in Minnesota and lost 13-10.
Iowa went from 15th in the AP poll to unsatisfied. Now Wisconsin (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS), fresh off a 24-7 upset of that time. 16 USC, comes calling in Iowa City.
Caesars opened the Hawkeyes as 3.5-point home favorites and that line hasn’t moved all week for FOX’s Big Noon kickoff at noon ET on Saturday.
“We’re seeing a lot more money from Wisconsin here, in the spread and the money line,” Feazel said. “People aren’t running to the window to score points with this Iowa team. We’re going to need Iowa to score a bunch of points.”
And not just to win and cover, but to beat the action that appears in the regular total, which is down to 36.5 from a high of 38 points.
“It’s a classic really low total, one of the lowest of the year,” Feazel said. “There was some sharper action bringing that number down to 38 and 37.5.”
The sharp side on campus
College football betting expert Paul Stone already included in the Florida-Georgia game. And it’s a new venue for the big annual rivalry, moving to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium while renovations take place at Jacksonville’s EverBank Stadium.
Stone likes the Bulldogs to bounce back in a big way against the Gators. One trend Stone is bucking: since Kirby Smart took over at Georgia in 2016, the Bulldogs are 11-6 ATS after a straight loss.
“Gunner Stockton had three turnovers in the loss to Auburn, so I think he’ll be out to make amends,” Stone said of the Georgia QB. “The Bulldogs know they can’t handle back-to-back losses at this stage of the season.
“I’m looking for Georgia to bring its ‘A’ game to Atlanta and annihilate the Gators by two or more touchdowns.”
B1G game
As mentioned above, Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (shoulder/arm) is out indefinitely, with this week’s game at USC the first he will miss.
However, the Buckeyes opened as 7-point favorites at Caesars. But the first move was on the Trojans, with the line dipping to Ohio State -6.5 (-115) on Monday and still there Thursday afternoon.
“There was a little more sharp action at USC +7 because we’re not sure what we’re going to get from Luke Fahey,” Feazel said, referring to Ohio State’s backup QB. “But being out of Sayin hasn’t deterred Ohio State bettors. We’re seeing mostly Buckeyes action and Over action.”
The total moved from 50.5 to 51/51.5 this week, and Feazel said there was a bit of sharp play at Over 50.5 / Over 51.5.
It’s worth noting that Fahey may not start, even after coming on in relief against Indiana two weeks ago, after Sayin was hurt late in the Buckeyes’ 19-15 road win. Ohio State coach Ryan Day has not yet said whether Fahey or Tavien St. Clair will begin Saturday’s kickoff at 7:30 PM ET.
Who will Ryan Day start at QB against USC in Week 9? (Getty Images)
Big day in the Big 12
There are two key Big 12 matchups in college football odds in Week 8: No. 22 Arizona vs.
Texas Tech (6-1 SU/3-4 ATS) just got beat in Cincinnati 37-24 as a heavy 10.5 point road favorite. The Red Raiders opened as a 4.5-point favorite against Arizona (6-1 SU/3-4 ATS) and are at -3.5.
“We saw some sharper bets in Arizona at +4, and we briefly got to 3. There’s some Texas technical action here,” Feazel said. “It’s a two-way street right now, but I anticipate more money from Texas Tech on game day.”
The total is potentially a bigger concern for the Caesars. While there was some sharp early action in the Under 55.5, taking the number to 54.5, Feazel is preparing for the betting public to flock to the Over.
“At the end of the day, we’re going to need the Under in this game,” he said.
Utah (7-0 SU/6-1 ATS) is one of the best spread-covering outfits in the country this season. And Cincinnati (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) is coming off of that aforementioned upset as a double-digit home loser.
Caesars opened the Utes -7 on the road, and Utah has spent most of the week at -6.5 (-118).
“It’s a classic middle game. People are either throwing points with Utah on the spread or taking Cincinnati on the money line,” Feazel said. “We need Cincy to cover, and we probably wouldn’t have a problem a Cincinnati victory, because of the paralays.”
Caesars has also seen sharp action on both sides of the total, in Under 58 – which was the original number – and Over 55.5 and 56.5. The total is at 56.5 Thursday afternoon.
