Take a deep breath. After a fast and furious August of last-second winners, record-setting performances and a little too much spice on and off the court, the WNBA will take a break for the next 16 days for the FIBA World Cup.
With four games left for each team in the regular season, let’s take a look at where we stand.
The playoff field is set
For weeks now, there hasn’t been much intrigue about which teams will make the postseason, and Dallas Wings ended any drama by clinching the final playoff spot last week. Although the Phoenix Mercury, Chicago Sky, Los Angeles Sparks and – to some extent – the expansion Portland Fire and Toronto Tempo had postseason hopes entering the 2026 season, the eight playoff teams this year will be the Atlanta Dream, Wings, Golden State Valkyries, Indiana Fever, Las Vegas, Washington, Las Vegas, New York Lygas. Mystics.
Semi-final
Winner 1 vs 8
vs.
Winner 4 vs 5
Winner 3 vs 6
vs.
Winner 2 vs 7
The final
Winner of semi-final 1
vs.
Winner of semi-final 2
First round
Semi-final
Winner 1 vs 8
vs.
Winner 4 vs 5
Semi-final
Winner 2 vs 7
vs.
Winner 3 vs 6
The final
Winner of semi-final 1
vs.
Winner of semi-final 2
First round
The names of those teams were listed in alphabetical order, and the order of placement still changes dramatically. As stated in The AthleticAs part of the playoff projection, the top three seeds are relatively safe: the Lynx are the favorite (94 percent probability) to secure the No. 1 seed, the Valkyries are in position to be the No. 2 seed, and the Aces are right behind them. Additionally, no team has more than a 40 percent chance of landing at any given slot. In fact, one of the most interesting findings of the projection is that the Dream are the most likely team to finish fourth and fifth, but they clearly cannot play each other in the first round of the postseason.
With so much at stake in the final four games of the season, every game between the playoff teams becomes increasingly important. Golden State, Las Vegas and Dallas are free and without any follow-ups, but here are the remaining six:
Friday, September 18: New York in Minnesota
Sunday, September 20: Washington in Indiana
Monday, September 21: Atlanta in New York
Tuesday, September 22: Minnesota and Indiana
Wednesday, September 23: Atlanta in New York
Thursday, September 24: Indiana in Minnesota
The Lynx must win at least one of those games (assuming they also beat the Connecticut Sun) to secure the No. 1 seed and home court advantage through the playoffs. Three wins could put New York in the top four and a first-round game at Barclays Center, and Atlanta likely needs to split with the Liberty to stay in the 4-5 bracket.
Several tie-breakers are still in progress. Indiana’s tiebreakers against New York, Washington and the Dream have yet to be decided, so there will be no rest before the playoffs begin.
Who is the favorite for the championship?
The Lynx have been the top seed for most of the season, but they go into the break on the back of two straight losses, and Olivia Miles has been defeated once again. She also had just the second game without an assist of her career, the first coming in a slightly less consequential 32-point loss at Toronto.
Minnesota isn’t nearly as bulletproof as one would expect from a top seed. Since the All-Star break, the Lynx have the league’s second-best record, but only the fourth-best net rating. Their offense was stymied against Golden State and their defense suffered against Atlanta. Leaks have been happening in Minnesota for some time.
Perhaps it’s no surprise that Lynx has been usurped as the title favorite, according to our projection bracket. That honor now belongs to the Valkyries, who got a bye week with road wins in Minnesota and New York. Golden State’s defense has been phenomenal all year, and their offense has picked up lately, thanks in part to Tiffany Hayes’ offense. No one can keep her away from the color.
Check this out: Hayes, Chen lead the Valkyries past the Fire
The Valkyries would be a unique title winner. It’s rare for a WNBA champion to be without a single insane MVP candidate. In the last 17 years, only Sky 2021 has not had a first-team All-WNBA player.
Perhaps the Aces should still be considered the title favorites with their incredible top talent. Even without NaLysa SmithLas Vegas has a roster full of playoff proven players, a 10-1 head coach in the playoffs and A’ja Wilson, who is the best player in the world. Then again, if the Aces were matched up with the Liberty in the first round, an early exit against a team that can take advantage of their lack of size wouldn’t exactly be surprising.
The Fever have the best offense in WNBA history, and the league has historically rewarded offense over defense. Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark can go to the heaters that many other teams can’t keep up with, but Indiana’s offense can get bogged down at times with full-court pressure.
I believe there are no favorites for the championship at this point. The league’s 25 percent expansion over the past two seasons has created a little too much parity, giving a few teams the chance to emerge victorious this postseason.
Prepare for an epic attack
The years of the pandemic are long behind us, but the question of eligibility for college has not yet been resolved. The NCAA’s new five-on-five rule means the 2027 draft decision won’t be decided until much closer to April, since all of the top prospects may decide to return to college for one more season.
The uncertainty of who might be available hasn’t stopped several franchises from, let’s just say, pushing their prospects to land the top pick by accumulating as many losses as possible. As a result, the lottery order is almost as compelling as the playoff race.
There are four games left between the two non-playoff teams, and two stand out. The first is on September 20 between Portland and Los Angeles. Neither team let go of the ropes to end the season; both collected surprising wins against playoff-bound opponents last week and looked better than the rest of their lottery-bound peers. Namely: Carla Leite proved to be fully deserving of her first invitation to a major senior tournament for France, dropping 26 points and six assists in a loss against Atlanta. Meanwhile, Nneka Ogwumike looks like he could have a multi-year max contract in free agency despite announces her retirement.
The Fire and Sparks are fifth and sixth in the lottery standings, but could flip if Portland wins in Los Angeles. Neither spot has a great chance of securing the first pick, but the odds of the fifth spot are about twice as high. The main reason for picking the Sparks in this particular matchup is because Ogwumike has been vocal about her desire to play the right way to close out the season, and coach Lynne Roberts said finishing so well — despite the potential damage to the Sparks’ lottery chances — is the best way to honor a franchise legend. With LA’s only other home game after the break coming against Golden State, this might be the best opportunity to send Ogwumike off in style.
Ogwumike is not slowing down
Sabreena Merchant
Another truly fantastic matchup comes on the final day of the regular season between Connecticut and Toronto. The Suns have been on a methodical two-year tear, and the fruit of their labor would be the highest odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft. The Tempo, on the other hand, were seemingly in the hunt for the playoffs in 2026, but changed due to a string of injuries. As an expansion team, this is the team’s only chance to perform a one-year tank, and Toronto clawed its way to the bottom, winning one of its last 17 games. Good luck identifying all the players in the lineups the Tempo are fielding: In their last miserable loss to Phoenix, three of their bench players weren’t even in preseason camp.
It’s possible these two teams could enter the final day, with Toronto needing one more loss to tie Connecticut for the worst two-year winning percentage, which would result in a split of the top odds. And the poor Suns will say goodbye to Connecticut on a day when a win would be the worst thing that could happen to them.
