Can Jeremiah Smith challenge Arch Manning to be No. 1 pick in 2027 NFL Draft?

In the year In 1996, despite several attempts to trade the pick, the New York Jets selected the undrafted Keyshawn Johnson as their third wide receiver with the No. 1 pick. NFL draft. (And one of those players, Dave Parks in 1964, was a more integrated tight end.)

There have been 31 draft picks since then, and Johnson remains the last receiver to pull that off.

But the title is sure to air at some point during Saturday’s mammoth. Ohio State-Texas rematch in AustinBuckeyes junior wideout Jeremiah Smith has been the best college football player in America the past two years and is arguably the top prospect in the NFL class of 2027. On the other side is Texas quarterback Arch Manning (you’ve probably heard of him), who stands as the current favorite — unless you pick Oregon QB Dante Moore — to Really No. 1 will be selected next spring.

Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1966, we’ve seen the No. 1 pick used 30 times on a quarterback (including the past four years) but only twice — Johnson in ’96 and Irving Fryer in 1984 — on a wide receiver.

Simply put: NFL teams prioritize QBs at the top of the draft, and will do anything to avoid taking another offensive skill position (the last running back taken No. 1 was K-Jana Carter in 1995). The Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell over Calvin Johnson in 2007 – I have nothing to do with that.

Many agree that Smith is a generational prospect, but can he overtake Manning and Moore for the top spot next spring?

The Case of Jeremiah Smith

To be clear: Smith has been a top college wide receiver prospect since at least Julio Jones. They were the most dominant true freshman college wide receivers I’ve ever seen, and they’re very similar athletically.

Smith is a legitimate 6-foot-3, 225-pound offensive weapon packed with wizardry, agility, body control, IQ and terrific speed for his size. There are no restrictions here, physically or otherwise. He has enough power to take down any jams and explosives that anyone across from him.

He helps energy, is physical in the catch, blocks, and can sink well standing up from a lot of angles. Not only is Smith out of Central Casting as an X receiver, he could start tomorrow in the NFL as a Z or slot, he’s also part of the running game.

The coverage of respect angles for Smith can be a bit comical at times, as they push back as far as possible for the players – only to have them falter when they try to react when he comes back. In two seasons plus one game, he totaled 171 catches for 2,709 yards and 29 touchdowns, and there was never a day when it all seemed overwhelming.

He had eight catches for 151 yards and two touchdowns in the first half last week against Ball State, late with some of the smoothest ball adjustments (and Heisman poses) you’ll ever see.

If those are physical tools, they are enough to make Smith the best prospect in America. But mentally, Smith is as strong as can be. Ohio State coaches and teammates rave about his work ethic, which has reached a high level.

He is a footballer who is serious about being a footballer. He would not publish any autobiography the following year; He didn’t give himself a nickname, and the ones he did have (JJ and Jerry) were boring—not that anyone called Calvin Johnson “Megatron” until he came to the NFL.

The reason a team wants to invest in Smith at the top of the draft over Manning (or Moore) is because he can already turn any quarterback on the roster. In the year As a true freshman in 2024, Smith caught 72 catches for 1,260 yards, although 13.4 percent of his throws were considered off-target.

In a class full of outstanding receivers, Smith’s ability to adapt to those poor throws is unparalleled.

And not only could he make circus plays that no one else could out, but he had just three drops in 220 career targets.

He showed up in big game after big game. Coming off back-to-back winning performances as a true freshman, against Tennessee and Oregon, Smith had 13 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns to spark OSU’s national title run. Last year, he went eight for 144 in the 2025 Big Ten title game and had another seven receptions for 157 yards in the Buckeyes’ loss to Miami.

So why would a team consider Smith at No. 1? Because he’s the best pure talent and safe bet in the 2027 NFL Draft class.

Does Manning have more on the line Saturday?

Smith is one of those truly rare prospects who doesn’t have much else to prove at this level. He has been seen big on such stages many times.

On the other hand, Manning could use a standout performance.

The biggest cloud hanging over Manning’s 2025 campaign came from how upset he was in the season opener at Ohio State. Manning made some big-time catches in that game, but only had 38 yards passing through three quarters. By the end of it, with the Buckeyes’ victory, many NFL scouts began to refocus their evaluation of Manning on 2027.

We cannot erase the past. But this is Manning’s chance to show scouts how much he’s grown.

A year ago in Columbus, he played poor footwork, missed reads, rushes and generally erratic football — and those issues continued in Texas’ first half. But the Manning we’ve seen down the stretch has played with steady feet, fluid throwing mechanics and confidence. He was a different player in the second half of the year.

Against a lesser opponent last week, Manning wasn’t perfect, but he did throw for 305 yards and four touchdowns in an easy win over Texas State. Now he gets a prime chance to distinguish himself in the ’27 QB class from Moore, who had shaky times against top defenses last year.

In the year While it may not be the team picking No. 1 in 2027 that needs a new quarterback the most, it just might. So, really, Smith’s shot at becoming first choice has less to do with his talent and more to do with the club’s situation.

Interestingly, in If you think back to the football scene in the spring of 1996, the biggest reason Johnson actually went No. 1 wasn’t about his sheer talent or the Jets’ decision-making. At least part of the explanation lies in the fact that college football’s top QB prospect, Peyton Manning, has completed his sophomore year and won’t be eligible until next year. The first quarterback taken in that ’96 draft was Tony Banks, at No. 42.

The upcoming draft class has legitimate QB potential, however, starting with Manning. He can prove his case on the bookies.

But the superstar receiver on the other side could have a lot to say about the outcome, both Saturday in Columbus and the draft in April.