Running backs get hurt, but every season is different, and the percentage of former roundbacks who miss time due to injury fluctuates from year to year. The last couple of seasons have been good for running backs as injuries to bigger players have been reduced. But that could easily change and we need to be ready.
There are only a handful of players who call themselves three-down running backs who get most of the work on the goal line and in the passing game. And because those players are limited in numbers, they’re going to take good early-round picks. And because they are complete players who can excel in different situations, they usually cannot be replaced by one player if an injury forces them to miss time.
First, when looking to draft backup running backs, or “armbands” as we fancy call them, you have to look at several factors. 1. Does the running back take over as a three-down back? This is rare, but there are a few and their ADP recognizes that fact. 2. If you’re not a three-down back, what role do you play? 3. Look closely at the team’s offense. Will the backup quarterback get solid fantasy opportunities or will the offense just have to avoid it? 4. Is there any back up other than direct backup to save fantasy points if the leader goes down? Will that back form a committee to hold back the new “leader” and make the fantasy points too thin?
Corum proved to be the equal of rookie Kieren Williams last season. He’s one of the few players that we can point to, yes, if the starter goes down, he can take over and be the bell-cow, the league will win back. Unfortunately, that’s already baked into his ADP. You’d need to give up a good pick to get him, but the ceiling is so high in that Rams offense that he’ll be a challenge. However, since you have to keep him as an RB36, you have to hope he gets enough work with Williams healthy to be a dynamic play. It should be, but not a lock.
Keaton Mitchell, fillers
The Chargers have two good running backs in Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal, so the newly acquired Mitchell won’t be lined up for a big workload anytime soon. But we’ve seen Mitchell show his explosiveness on the field, and when you combine that with Mike McDaniel’s offense, there’s a natural paradox. We saw in Miami that McDaniels isn’t afraid to use little Devon Acha as a lead. We can’t wait for that, but we know that Mitchell won’t hesitate to give work if it’s guaranteed. It will be tough to top it, but even at 8-10, Mitchell will qualify.
Saquon Barkley has plenty of yardage on his body, and in limited work last season, Bigsby played well, averaging 5.9 yards per 58 attempts. Bigsby Barkley could work in the passing game if he goes down, but the upside will be huge in the Eagles’ offense. We will see a lot of passing from the Eagles this year, but they will still be a tough team to run against. Sure, Jalen Hurts can hurt running backs’ touchdown chances, but his running ability helps every running back. Bigsby Barkley has no standalone value since he needs an injury, so if you draft him, you need to keep him on your bench, which means I have deep benches and I’d rather have him in a league.
Update The league is investigating allegations of domestic abuse by Packers RB Josh Jacobs after Lloyd was placed on the commissioner’s exempt list. It’s a guessing game at this point, but don’t let Lloyd slip too far in your drafts.
Lloyd is a huge injury risk, but the upside in a good run in Green Bay is great. If healthy and Josh Jacobs doesn’t hold out, Lloyd could be a league winner. There are a lot of ifs and coulds out there, but this isn’t just some jo-shmo from down the road.
Lloyd is getting a lot of training camp praise and Jacobs is dealing with legal trouble and nagging injuries, so Lloyd is showing some ADP. He might be too high for my liking, but if he’s there and doesn’t go down with a season-ending injury, I’m hitting the draft button.
I’ve been drafting Davis the past two seasons, but I haven’t been able to use him since James Cook has stayed healthy. That could happen again, but if Cook misses time, there’s no doubt Davis will be in great shape. Since Cook was healthy, Davis’ ADP is RB64. Again, if you have short benches, it’s hard to book these backups while you’re working the takedown wire, but if you have the space, these guys are real lottery tickets.
There is a lot of hype for this bear offense and it may well be justified. We know they have a strong running game and while Ben Johnson’s offense is close to what he did in Detroit, backup DeAndre Swift could be in line for big touchdown numbers. We saw what David Montgomery did in Detroit and Swift is not Jahmir Gibbs’ talent. Monangai Swift has proven that he can put up good numbers right off the field in his rookie year. If you’re buying the Bears, which I am, you want to get that offense on your fantasy team. (Monangai is dealing with energy, so keep an eye on him.)
