There is a range of thought among rugby fans, commentators and pundits that somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 to 40 Test experience is something of a sweet spot for players building their international careers.
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The thinking is that once within this range, players know more about the demands of the highest level of play and how to prepare for it, are likely to be less prone to mistakes under pressure or fatigue that can easily be attributed to inexperience, and are no longer a risky decision at the selection table.
By the time a player reaches the upper limits of this range, the coach knows what they are capable of and has played a major role in shaping the player into the seasoned international he has become.
In the modern game, with the number of tests run by top nations each year, a player can enter this range within his second season at this level. A range of 25 to 40 Tests generally represents roughly three to four seasons at international level, approaching one full Rugby World Cup cycle, which covers the average tenure of an international coach.
In Wallabies terms, Joe Schmidt (31 Tests) and Dave Rennie (34) were both in this range. Eddie Jones, on the other hand, wasn’t even halfway there, lasting just nine Tests in his ill-fated second spell.
The feeling of satisfaction and admiration that was still buzzing after the fantastic victory of the Wallabies over South Africa in Perth, and even with all the trepidation that comes with the prospect of the Bledisloe Cup Test in Auckland, there’s definitely a sense of optimism around the Australian team right now.
Obviously, as has always been the case, how they back up that win will be as important as the win itself at Optus Stadium. And with Nations Championship matches against England, Scotland and Wales (and the final play-off game at the weekend) to follow the Bledisloe Tests this month, the magnitude of the awkwardness won’t let up anytime soon.
But seeing how Australia beat the Springboks and how this team came through the series against Japan and tour Argentina with new coach Les Kiss, it was really encouraging.
From the team that beat South Africa in Perth, the Wallabies’ matchday 23 total was 876 – an average of 38 per player.
With 14 Tests to go between now and the start of RWC 2027, just under a year away, Australian rugby fans are daring to dream about what form the Wallabies could be in by then.
A bit of research on this last week helped drive those thoughts into next year’s tournament, all relating to that ‘sweet spot’ of the Test experience that many Wallabies are now, or will soon be.
From the team that beat South Africa in Perth, the Wallabies’ matchday 23 total was 876 – an average of 38 per player.
For a quick comparison, the previous match, a draw with Argentina in Mendoza, Australia, put a total of 645 Tests on the field, an average of 28 per player.
The jump from Mendoza to Perth was significant in terms of Test experience, with the addition of Allan Ala’alatoa (94 Tests), Brandon Paenga-Amosa (31), Hunter Paisami (40) and Tate McDermott (56) adding another 218 games between them. McDermott did not take the field in Perth, but was clearly still heavily involved in the preparations leading up to the match.
Since matchday 23 in Perth, the Wallabies have had seven guys with more than 50 Tests, another six with more than 30 Tests and another four with more than 25 Tests.
So that’s 17 guys involved in that remarkable win (including McDermott), who will almost certainly all be part of Les Kiss’s RWC plans next season, with between 25 and 94 Ala’alatoa Tests. Those 17 represent just under 800 tests between them.
In fact, 14 of the 23 have between 25 and 58 Tests, so there is a real seam of rugby experience being built together within the Wallabies squad.
There are five or six other guys who could reach 25 Tests by RKV next year, too. Add another 10-14 Tests to these results, and it’s entirely feasible that the Wallabies could send more than 1100 games worth of experience onto the field for RWC play, with a games per player average in the high 40s.
Students of cohesion theory will tell you that shared experience goes beyond Test rugby and can be measured much earlier than that top level.
By comparison, statistician Russ Petty confirmed that South Africa had a total of 1288 Tests in the 2023 RWC finals on Matchday 23, including more than 300 off the bench. For the final series of the Test of the Greatest Rivalry in Baltimore, their number was 1,204.
But students of cohesion theory will tell you that shared experience goes beyond Test rugby and can be measured well before that peak level.
A look back through some junior Wallabies teams is particularly revealing.
From that illustrious 2019 cohort, which finished as runners-up to France at the Junior World Championships in Argentina, there are some very familiar names: Angus Bell and Josh Nasser were the starting props in the final. Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight were in the back row; Mark Nawaqanitawase and Noah Lolesio were in the back line.
Nick Frost, Carlo Tizzano and Ben Donaldson were on the bench, as was Western Force Scrum-half Henry Robertson, who we could see at Test level this year, had he not suffered a serious knee injury at the end of the Super Rugby season.
Go back a year earlier, to the 2018 squad for the World Junior Championships in France, and you can add Matt Faessler, Len Ikitau, McDermott and Jordan Petaia on the list. Ryan Lonergan also captained that side for most of 2018.
Add some Brisbane City, Queensland Country and Canberra Vikings sides during the NRC years, plus the ACT Brumbies and Queensland Red teams that have played a lot of finals rugby over the last few seasons, and you realize that a large part of this Wallabies team building has played a lot of rugby, and importantly, a lot of it together.
They are building a really nice core of players on the team, who will be able to get a healthy amount of experience from the RWC next year.
This Wallabies team has built up good form and results for their new coach, and there is no doubt that they still have plenty of improvement left in them, with some important Test matches yet to come in 2026.
But they also create a really nice core of players in the squad, who will be able to call upon a healthy amount of experience from RWC next year. Very helpful, we have built a lot of experience together.
They are far from the finished product, these Wallabies. But it’s exciting to think where they might end up in the next 12 months.
