Has one player ever been so important to All black people than Cam Roigard is right now?
Even the legendary Dan Carter might not be able to claim that much.
The All Blacks won in 2011 Rugby World Cup with fourth string No.10 Stephen Donald leading the team home France after Carter went down with an injury in the pool stage.
Although Carter’s performances were key to the 2015 back-to-back, the 2015 squad is considered the most complete rugby team of all time. Prime Beauden Barrett was the reserve number 10.
In 2026, under new head coach Dave Rennie in an up-tempo all-around offense, there’s a big difference between what the team can do with Cam Roigard on the field and without him. He is the main playmaker, along with Jordy Barrett, in a new style of play built around them.
The All Blacks coaches know this, having wrapped the 25-year-old in cotton wool for all the warm-up games in South Africa. It just wasn’t worth the risk.
There are currently three irreplaceable players in the All Blacks; Cam Roigard, Ardie Savea and Jordie Barrett. Will Jordan would probably be fourth.
These players have no comparables, and the next player on the depth chart offers significantly less. But no position is more pronounced than half-back, where the gap between Roigard and the others is huge.
The All Blacks are right up there with the Springboks as the first three Tests South Africa showed, and a one-off quarterfinal victory is entirely possible, but only if the best of the best are available.
It’s hard to see the All Blacks beating the Springboks and then France if Roigard isn’t on the field at the Rugby World Cup in 2027. Which makes keeping him and maybe a few others a high priority in a World Cup year.
This will be more difficult than usual because the countries of the southern hemisphere have given up their advantage in 2027. They have decided to increase their competition when they usually reduce the number of tests.
The All Blacks played four Tests before the World Cup, minus three games Rugby Championship and one additional Bledisloe Cup match.
In 2023, they opted for another one at Twickenham against South Africa, making it five in total, costing them stubborn Tyrel Lomax with injury and a record 35-7 defeat.
In 2027, the SANZAAR nations have decided to return to a full rugby championship, six tests each, while the All Blacks have a third Bledisloe Cup scheduled for ANZAC weekend.
What used to be four Tests has now become seven, with more warm-ups yet to be determined.
It was the northern hemisphere nations that shot themselves in the foot by doing this. Faced with the prospect of losing their November income, they scheduled a bunch of summer tests against each other.
In 2019 Wales lost half Gareth Anscombe to a knee injury before he even got on the plane to Japan. By the time Wales reached the semi-finals, they had been decimated by injuries to their starters.
In 2023, France lost the World Cup before the World Cup had even started, losing star flyhalf Roman Ntamacko to a knee injury in a meaningless warm-up game against Scotland.
Ntamack was arguably the best flyhalf in the world at the time, certainly top three in the position, and critical to the French 9-10 combination built in Toulouse. Dupont is much more dangerous with him.
Mathieu Jalibert was not the world-class player he is now, and it was Jalibert who collapsed in the quarter-final loss to South Africa with critical errors in Ntamack’s absence.
France learned their lesson and the FFR agreed to terms with the LNR to protect 33 players from Top 14 season ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup. For the first time, they will manage workloads and limit tests to those they deem too valuable.
With only one Rugby World Cup win by Northern Hemisphere teams in 2003 in England, the results suggest that playing less before the World Cup contributes to results.
Now that the All Blacks are playing more Tests before the World Cup, how will they protect Roigard and others? Will he play fully Super Rugby Pacific season and seven tests before the most important campaign in four years?
It was two unsuccessful World Cup campaigns in a row that led to an eight-year absence of the William Webb Ellis Trophy in New Zealand.
In 2019, they were ambushed by the strong England team. They also played well below their standards and the selection of Scott Barrett at blindside proved significant.
Not including veterans Ben Smith, Ryan Crotty and younger stars like Rieko Ioane looked expensive on the day. Sonny Bill Williams was used from the bench. Owen Franks and Ngane Laumape stayed at home to begin with.
In 2023, the margins were incredibly slim, and they almost pulled off the biggest win in All Black history, battling with 14 men for 80 per cent of the game. They shouldn’t have been in it after Sam Cane’s red card and two missed shots on goal cruelly cost them the win.
Those World Cups show you need every advantage you can get, and exposing a team to more Test rugby before a World Cup seems like a fool’s errand.
They no longer have the depth to risk the best All Blacks.
