Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 333

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) featherweight sluggers Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita goes to war this weekend (Saturday 24 October 2026) at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates UFC 333.

Two fights into his career, Pico has lived up to his reputation as a do-or-die action fighter. He got one of the nastiest knockouts of the year in his debut vs Lerone Murphybut his fellow Bellator OG Patrick Pitbull was both an impressive comeback and a display of potential. Ahead of his 20th pro fight, the question remains: Can Pico put it all together and become a real contender?

Keita can replace the injured Arnold Allenbut she is not against softball. The former two-division Octagon champion was left reeling in an uneventful debut for the crafty Nathaniel Woodbut his comeback knockout reminded fans why they were so excited about his signing.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pico vs. Keita Betting odds

Pico is an outstandingly successful wrestler with a deep boxing background from the start. There’s a reason he signed with Nike at 18 before even making his professional debut – he has the credentials to be an all-time great fighter. We’ve seen bits and pieces of that greatness in the cage, but Pico has yet to put it all together consistently.

His beating of Pitbull was a step in the right direction though.

To win this fight, Pico will have to walk a tightrope that has plagued him throughout his career. He has the boxing skills to go toe-to-toe with Keita, but standup must remain a means to an end. His goal should be to set up the takedown and gain control because Keita is very dangerous standing up. If Pico gets too confident on the feet or too excited, he’s in for another bad knockout loss.

Can Pico smartly engage and grapple with a high-level opponent? He’s not really a decision-maker because, win or lose, only 15% of his matches end up in the standings. This is a great opportunity for Pico to prove that he can stick to the script and avoid firefights, which is a necessary skill for any future champion.

Keita is a bona fide knockout artist. The Belgian “Black Panther” is an outstanding athlete who imposes his physicality on opponents, chases them around the Octagon and takes them out. When shots ring out, Keita has tremendous eyes for gliding and returning fire in devastating fashion.

In this matchup, Keita will face the kind of opponent he enjoys: one who handles. Pico has great ranged weapons like jabs and jabs, but I’m not sure he’s mentally capable of staying away. He is a pocket boxer and from there Keita clears his opposition.

Keita’s goal then is to pressure the wrestler and convince him to follow his natural instincts. Pico wants to fight and any safe strategy his trainers have laid out for him can be quickly forgotten. When Keita really gets in his face and aggressively attacks any attempt to push him away, Pico tries to wrestle or trade. As long as Keita has the takedown defense to deal with the former, the latter is suddenly inevitable.

Pico vs. Keita Prediction

Aaron Pico is a lifelong martial artist approaching his 10th year as a professional fighter. He has been an incredible athlete since he was a teenager; physicality has never held him back. But after 19 cage rounds, the highlight of his entire career is a victory over Patricio Pitbull, a smaller and older foe who still managed to tag him several times in the first round.

Despite all the skills on display, I was not impressed with this Pitbull win. Several times Pitbull landed in the first round and you could see Pico visibly freeze for a moment. He’s not hitting well, and I see no reason to believe that the bug will suddenly improve now. Meanwhile, Keita is neither 39 nor 5’6.” He’s taller and taller than Pico, who’s been around so long he’s no longer a prodigy – he’s two years older than Keita!

“Black Panther” finds its chin and finish early.

Prediction: Keita via knockout