Welcome to The AthleticWNBA projections for 2026, where you’ll find each team’s odds of earning each playoff seed. Follow our forecast, which will be updated live as the matches finish.
Semi-final
Winner 1 vs 8
vs.
Winner 4 vs 5
Winner 3 vs 6
vs.
Winner 2 vs 7
The final
Winner of semi-final 1
vs.
Winner of semi-final 2
First round
Semi-final
Winner 1 vs 8
vs.
Winner 4 vs 5
Semi-final
Winner 2 vs 7
vs.
Winner 3 vs 6
The final
Winner of semi-final 1
vs.
Winner of semi-final 2
First round
If you’re just tuning in, the WNBA playoff field is set: Lynx, Valkyries, Aces, Fever, Dream, Liberty, Wings and Mystics will be in the playoffs.
The team’s prospects depend on its current record and our expectations for its performance in the remaining games. We use Elo ratings to gauge team strength — a score of 1500 is about league average. The table below shows estimates of possible playoff outcomes for each team.
If you’re a fan of a team outside of the eight playoff spots, it’s time to start thinking about your team’s draft picks. Below you’ll find our estimates for each lottery team that earns each pick in the 2027 WNBA Draft. The first two slots are determined by a random drawing between non-playoff teams, and lottery odds are determined by two-year total regular season winning percentage.
methodology: We estimate each team’s chances by simulating an entire WNBA season 100,000 times and calculating how often a team earns each seed, advances to each round of the playoffs, and wins the championship.
We estimate each team’s probability of winning each game using the team level Elo ratings. Better teams are rated higher; worse teams are rated lower. After each game, the Elo of the winning team increases and the Elo of the losing team decreases (correct how much Elo points change hands depending on several factors, including the team’s probability of winning before the game and the margin of victory in the game). Player-level data, including rosters and injuries, does not affect a team’s Elo rating.
