We’re almost in the middle of the NFL regular season and it makes me sad because I’m just starting to warm up. I have seven picks I like this week, including player props Patrick Mahomes, Drake MayeAND Tony Pollardplus three spread picks for Eastern games at 1 p.m. Good luck, Happy November and enjoy your day!
Vikings at Lions (-3): O/U 46.5
I said on Monday of this week on NBC that this was the first of the week. It’s a miracle that the Minnesota Vikings are the only undefeated team in the NFL, and to me, they are the most overrated team. In the last four games, Minnesota has beaten Tampa Bay, Miami, New Orleans and Indianapolis; those teams are a combined 7-20. Last season, the Vikings swept the Lions in the regular season, and counting Kyler Murray it likely won’t equate to another sweep over Detroit.
Murray ranks 21st and 26th in passer rating against man and zone coverage, 28th in snap completion percentage (54.8%) and 26th in play action completion percentage (54.9%). In early downs, Minnesota ranks first, while Detroit is first. I don’t think it’s plausible to go for a road result as an underdog with Jared Goff and the Lions. I like Detroit -3 at -120 odds.
Select: Lions -3 (1 unit)
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Titans at Bengals (-12.5): O/U 46.5
Tony Pollard had a season-high 129 yards rushing on 25 carries and tied a career high with three rushing touchdowns. It was a great day for Pollard, but the Titans lost at the buzzer 27-24 to the Browns. Now, Tennessee continues as a double-digit underdog in Cincinnati. Not a recipe for success.
Last week, Pollard had an amazing game script to feed off of, maybe the best he’s had all year, but I don’t see that this week, especially against Dexter Lawrence AND Jonathan Allen. The Bengals held on Derrick Henry on 45 yards rushing on 17 carries last week, and with Cam Ward Not striking any fear into the hearts of the Bengals, I think Cincy stacks the box and tries to take Pollard out of the equation. I went under 65.5 yards rushing on Pollard and would go down to 60.5.
Select: Tony Pollard under 65.5 Rushing Yards (1 unit)
Browns at Steelers (-3.5): O/U 38.5
I still can’t believe my eyes and ears about the 5-2 Cleveland Browns! But all good things must come to an end, right? All five of Cleveland’s wins have come by four points or less, and they needed a field goal to beat the Titans in Tennessee and the same at home against the Ravens in the last two weeks. Cleveland has been playing with fire lately, while the Steelers were seen returning from Paris playing with ice.
Aaron Rodgers wore chains that cost more than my house and maybe yours on that flight back from the first NFL game in Paris. Rodgers said it was his favorite road trip of his long NFL career, and the Steelers are starting to hit their stride with three straight wins after losing to the Browns in Cleveland.
The Steelers trip to an immediate game is worrisome because the last eight teams that played in London, then a game in the United States the following week, went 0-8 ATS! However, the Browns haven’t swept the Steelers in the regular season since 1988. It’s a revenge spot for Pittsburgh, and if you’ve seen the game between Cam Heyward AND Jared Verse this week, then you know it’s going to be a classic AFC North feast. Give me Pittsburgh at home -3.5. I’d prefer a -3, but the sportsbooks are playing more defense than ever this season.
Select: Steels -3.5 (1 unit)
Falcons at Bucs (-2.5): O/U
Tampa Bay got that Baker bump last week! Baker Mayfield returned from injury and Tampa Bay looked inspired. The Bucs were shocked Bryce Young last week and destroyed their confidence by turning three turnovers into 17 of the teams 43 points. It won’t be so easy this week expecting Atlanta to a point of disappointment outside of the buzzer. Mayfield only threw the ball 11 times, so we really don’t know how healthy he is or how effective he will be, but we do know what to expect from Atlanta.
The Falcons have the fifth-best offensive success rate since then Michael Penix took over and he got the ball out quickly with 50% of his passes coming within 2.5 seconds (fourth best). That could be the key against the Bucs’ rush-heavy, pressure-heavy defense. Tampa Bay loads the box with eight or more players at the second-highest clip (22.1%) and punts 40.4% of the time it does so, which ranks fifth-most. I would expect a lot of screens, draws and quick throws to offset the Bucs defense, while Atlanta will likely bring pressure and try to hit Mayfield as much as possible to really test his health and conditioning. Give me Atlanta.
Select: Falcons +2.5 (1 unit)
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Patriots (-7) at Dolphins: O/U 43.5
last season, Drake Maye completed 33-of-41 (80.5%) passes for 421 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions over two wins against Miami. Maye even added 72 rushing yards and another score on 15 carries in those two outings. This Miami defense is even less threatening than last year.
The Dolphins have four interceptions on the season, and two came in Week 1 vs Kirk Cousinswith another courtesy of last week’s Geno Smith. When Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Brock PurdyAND Kyler Murray played in Miami, that group averaged 242.5 passing yards against the Dolphins and combined for eight touchdowns to one interception. Kyler Murray was the only quarterback who didn’t throw at least two touchdowns against Miami. At -102 odds, I like Maye to go under 0.5 Interceptions against Miami for the third straight time and like 2+ Pass touchdowns for the first two games.
Select: Drake Maye under 0.5 interceptions (1 unit)
Chiefs (-1.5) at Broncos: O/U 40.5
In Week 1 against Denver, Patrick Mahomes returned from major surgery and finished with 184 passing yards, 15 of 27 passing and three total touchdowns, including an epic rushing score to start the game. He went below all of his props except for passing touchdowns and rushing yards.
Fast forward to last week, Mahomes had his worst game of the season on Sunday Night Football against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks in Seattle. Mahomes returns and heads to Denver to face a Broncos defense that almost went to the Super Bowl. It will be a long day for the Chiefs, but if Kenneth Walker goes crazy again (191 total yards, 2 TDs) this looks like a place for Mahomes to pass his props.
The Broncos average 5.1 plays per possession, ranking worst in the NFL. This is an area that shows more games and possessions for the bosses. Both of these teams rarely allow sacks or turn the ball over, so we should see a lot of possessions. Both teams had 12 drives in the Week 1 meeting, and Kansas City had 20 more drives than Denver (62-42) thanks to the running game, and it was Davis WebbFirst game as OC with Broncos. However, Kansas City will likely play more and have more possessions than Denver.
Denver is back Jonathan Cooper last week, plus Patrick Surtain AND Discuss the content both could play today. Denver’s defense has typically limited Mahomes’ damage through the air, but to move the ball against Denver’s defense, Mahomes will have to actively take what the Broncos can give him. I like Mahomes to go from 20.5 completions and 220.5 passing yards to 21.5 and 225.5. I lean his efforts over the pass.
The choices: Patrick Mahomes over 20.5 completions (1 unit), Mahomes over 220.5 passing yards (1 unit)
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1 unit: Tony Pollard under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 unit: Drake Maye under 0.5 interceptions (-102)
1 unit: Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 Completions (-108)
1 unit: Patrick Mahomes over 220.5 passing yards (-113)
1 unit: Lions -3 (-120)
1 unit: Steels -3.5 (-105)
1 unit: Falcons +2.5 (-118)
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