Week 10 kicked off with a Thursday Night Football thriller between the Chiefs and Giants! After the favorites blew out Week 9, the underdogs pulled out an early win. I have three early picks for the first games in Germany, Cincinnati and Baltimore. Good luck and enjoy the weekend! Game odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Lions (-2.5) vs. Patriots: O/U 51.5
The Lions and Patriots will meet in Munich, Germany, with a potential shootout on our hands. Last week, Green Bay torched New England’s secondary for nearly 400 passing yards, and the Patriots face Detroit, which hasn’t had to play the past two games.
Jared Goff has thrown 25 pass attempts in each of his last two games against the Dolphins and Vikings and gone under 200 yards. Goff hasn’t passed for fewer than 200 yards in back-to-back games since 2024. Before the previous two games, Goff had thrown at least 30 passes in six straight and 38 or more in three. This is one spot where I think he clears 30 and could approach 40 on subsequent attempts. The Patriots have the second most man coverage (28.5%), and that opens the door for this Lions offense.
Detroit scored 31 on the Jets, and Goff went 25 of 32 for 269 yards and two touchdowns; and that’s important because this is the only game Goff has faced against a team ranked in the top 10 in player coverage rating. The Patriots are definitely a step up from the Jets defensively, and after New England’s secondary was decimated by Jordan Love, Christian WatsonAND Matthew Golden last week, this support looks much better. I like Goff Over 34.5 to 35.5 passing attempts. The only quarterback to go for 35-plus against New England is Aaron Rodgers (39)but that is about to change.
Select: Jared Goff over 34.5 pass attempts (1 unit)
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Steel at Bengals (-3.5): O/U 49.5
It may be November, but this game will feel like a December or January clash with playoff implications. The Steelers and Bengals are both on four-game winning streaks, and the winner will be in first place in the AFC North. The spread and total for this first game were Bengals -3.5 and 42.5, so we have a full seven-point correction in the total for the second game after Pittsburgh won 30-27 in Week 3.
Pittsburgh has been ahead in years past with Mike Tomlin understanding week will come (17-5 ML), but this Mike McCarthy’s team now, plus the Bengals, are outstanding when they are at a rest disadvantage. Since 2019 with Zac TaylorThe Bengals are 18-5-1 ATS with a layoff disadvantage.
Instead of picking a team, I’m down 24.5 points at halftime. The halftime score was 17-17 in Week 3 and exceeded the 20.5 first half total. There may be a lack of pace early in the break for the Steelers, and it will be difficult for the Bengals to repeat or improve on their 7.1-yard game last week against Atlanta. With the intensity of this game early, I like the first half under 24.5 points. Neither team has played anyone well while lighting it up during their four-game winning streak, so the defense could surprise us.
Select: Steelers vs Bengals 1H under 24.5 (1 unit)
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Chargers at Ravens (-4.5): O/U 38.5
If you were the Chargers and had to pick an opponent, you’d pick from the Colts, Dolphins, Eagles and Ravens at this point (LA lost to the Raiders and Cardinals). This is as good a matchup for the Chargers offense as it gets. Baltimore has allowed 33-plus points in three straight games, and it may not improve with questionable labels for three starting defensive backs.
It’s also the Chargers’ first primetime game of the season and the first of two or three (Week 15 could be tipped). I think Los Angeles will want this game a little more, and Jim Harbaugh can call on his brother John for some secrets to getting the win against his former Ravens team.
I’m not scared that Jacoby Brissett will make his Ravens debut in Baltimore on Monday Night Football because, like I said, the Ravens defense has some serious issues. The Chargers finally found the end zone last week after going 37 straight drives without a touchdown, and I think they’ll find it more than once in Baltimore. I like the Chargers to get their first shutout of the season (0-7-1 ATS), and I think they can win, too. Baltimore is 0-4 ATS at home (worst) and 2-7 ATS this season (third-worst). I’ll take LA +4.5.
Select: Chargers +4.5 (1 unit)
Week 10 picks
1 unit: Jared Goff over 34.5 pass attempts (-120)
1 unit: Steelers vs Bengals 1H under 24.5 (-122)
1 unit: Chargers +4.5 (-110)
Season Record: 64-56-1 (58.1%) +2.90 units
Weeks 1-6: 29-42 (40.8%) -15.95 units
Weeks 7-9: 34-14 (70.8%) +19 units
Week 10: 1-1 (50%) -0.15 units
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