Last Monday night in Tallahassee, Florida State created four turnovers and still wasn’t covered as a 3-point underdog.
The Seminoles lost 27-24 to SMU, so that’s a push for this column, but hopefully a win for any of you who were able to grab a +3.5 closer to the start.
Boy, did it feel good to be sweating football bets again.
We know you are here for informed betting and I assure you that I check everything through several handicappers, odds players and betting friends who know what they are doing. Those who do well in this racket know the “How, What and Why” and that is always my goal.
Also, this will never be the place for a million picks or five-team matchups. These will always be the bets I like the most and the ones I will bet my money on.
Let’s go to work.
(2026 record: 1-2-1, -1.2 points)
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The Owls were blown out by Florida last week, 66-21. So why are you betting on them Well, they moved the ball surprisingly well against an SEC defense – 396 yards isn’t too shabby. Life will be much easier against Navy, a program that doesn’t smell the kind of athleticism and speed that Florida brought to the table. I like veteran FAU quarterback Caden Veltkamp a ton and think the Owls are ripe to pull off an upset at home.
My love for this year’s Minnesota team is well documented. I like to bet on teams returning their starting head coach, both coordinators and starting quarterbacks. And oh, by the way, they bring back Anthony Smith, the guy who led the Big Ten in sacks last year. Miss State quarterback Kamario Taylor dazzled last week against Louisiana-Monroe with 354 yards and four touchdowns, but now he must face a real defense, headlined by Smith.
Sammy P’s Pick: Minnesota (+1.5)
After bulldozing East Carolina last weekend, Alabama heads to Lexington for a very early SEC tilt. It’s the first collegiate road start for freshman quarterback Keelon Russell, who put up a ton against the Pirates with 6.6 yards per rush. I’m sorry, but that’s not going to happen against Kentucky. If the Wildcats can limit Russell’s run and keep him in the pocket, they’ll have every chance to hang within that big number.
Sammy P’s Pick: Kentucky (+10.5)
Consider Sammy P one of the few not traded on Ben Johnson’s Bears (Getty Images).
I hope my bosses at FOX Chicago don’t read this. Simply put, the Bears are one of the most overrated teams in the betting market. Their odds of winning the conference and the Super Bowl are insane given all the question marks on the defensive side of the ball. There’s a lot to like about the partnership of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, but this line is too harsh. I’ll knock Carolina out of a playoff spot by getting a shutout in their opener.
Sammy P’s Pick: Panthers (+3)
Speaking of overrated, meet the Green Bay Packers. Superstar defensive end Micah Parsons isn’t walking through that door for weeks, and I’ve never been a big believer in Jordan Love. Meanwhile, Minnesota brings back most of the pieces from a top-10 defense and now Kyler Murray is orchestrating the offense with a loaded receiving room and a veteran backfield. People forget that the Vikings won nine games last year. And now they have a quarterback.
Sammy P’s Pick: Vikings (-1.5)
