There’s not much to complain about after last weekend’s four-game sweep of the slate. Everything went well, which felt right since basically everything went wrong the weekend before.
This is sports betting in a nutshell – low-rise, low-rise.
Let’s stay the course with five more bets this week.
We know you are here for informed betting and I assure you that I check everything through several handicappers, odds players and betting friends who know what they are doing. Those who do well in this racket know the “how, what and why” and that is always my goal.
Also, this will never be the place for a million picks or five-team matchups. These will always be the bets I like the most and the ones I will bet my money on.
Let’s go to work.
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(2026 record: 19-17-2, +0.3 points)
After the Fighting Illini’s surprising home win over Oregon, it’s time to fade them out. May it ever be so. Neither of these teams is anything special, but I like the Terps in this spot with the fired coach bump. Teams went 8-4 against the spread (ATS) with that situation last year. Mike Locksley is gone and I imagine Maryland plays with a little extra life this weekend.
Minnesota will struggle to score, but Indiana can too. This is another physical defensive line the Hoosiers face after playing Nebraska, Ohio State and Michigan. This game probably won’t win any beauty contests with all the runs and punts stuffed, but that’s the kind of style the Golden Gophers like to play. Here’s hoping for a 27-13 type final score.
Sammy P’s Pick: Minnesota (+20.5)
Air Force is sitting QB3 Josh Johnson with injuries to Liam Szarka and Evan Medders, and this is the stuff you like to read if you’re at UConn. The smart guys went to work on this number at +3 and +2.5, but I like +1.5 at BetMGM and FanDuel. Some offshore books have the game listed in a KP. In short, my boys think UConn should be favored.
Sammy P’s Pick: UConn (+1.5)
If the Ducks were a stock, they’d be in the ditch. Before the season, I would have made Oregon a 22-point favorite at home against Northwestern. My, how things have changed. The Cats have a pulse and are extremely well coached, with David Braun and Chip Kelly. All that said, former Las Vegas bookie Ed Salmons told me, “Oregon feels like Texas.” The Horns were a cheap, underdog favorite last week and got covered against Ole Miss. Time to Quack.
Sammy P’s Pick: Oregon (-3.5)
The Dallas Cowboys are 7 point favorites with that defense?! The defense that allowed Tanner McKee and the Eagles’ poor offense to hang around for three quarters? Arizona coach Mike LaFleur told reporters Friday that running back Jeremiah Love is good to go, a great sign for a fired-up Cardinals team that beat the LA Rams two weeks ago. The Cards will be able to move the ball and this total says both teams will score.
Sammy P’s Pick: Cardinals (+7)
