When the season began, FanGraphs projected the Rays to finish last in their division and the Brewers to win 83 games.
Now, with two weeks left in the regular season, the Brewers (93-57) and Rays (90-59) have already punched their tickets to the postseason and look to secure the top seeds in their respective leagues.
However, no team is infallible, and even the best baseball clubs have their flaws. Here are our latest contender rankings, along with a reason for optimism and pessimism for each team on the list.
(Note: Our rankings only include teams within five games of a playoff spot as of Monday morning. The Marlins, Cardinals and Twins were bumped off the list this week.)
They’re only here by default because the AL West is rotten enough that a team 10 games under .500 is only five wins behind the division leader. We know the offense has been a problem all year, but a rotation that should be among the best in baseball has an ERA over 5.00 for the past month. The only real reason for optimism is the schedule; seven of Seattle’s last 12 games are against the Angels.
Remember when they hit .500 in late August? Well, the O’s have gone 3-9 since then and have the lowest slugging percentage and OPS in baseball in September. Still, third baseman Coby Mayo’s late-season resurgence has been a bright spot amid the slide. He has the highest OPS against left-handed hitters of any qualified hitter in the sport.
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Coby Mayo’s late-season power surge has been a bright spot for the Orioles. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Corey Seager is heating up and Nathan Eovaldi and Josh Jung were just activated from the injured list. None of them, however, can address a problem that has been a problem all year and nearly cost the Rangers their last win in the Arizona series.
Vladdy finally did it. It is almost unimaginable that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t hit a home run all year until Sunday, the Blue Jays’ 150th game of the season. But he finally went deep as part of a four-hit day, and maybe that provides a spark. Their postseason push isn’t made any easier by the fact that their pitching rotation lacks depth behind ace Dylan Cease.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. watches his first home run of the season at Rogers Center leave the yard on Sunday. (Photo by Michael Chisholm/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Despite the Astros’ many flaws, having Yordan Alvarez playing at an MVP level always gave hope. However, Alvarez is hitting just .238 with three home runs in his last 31 games and is now dealing with an ankle injury that forced him out of two games this weekend. His absence highlighted the Astros’ lack of depth as they were swept by the AL’s top pitching staff.
The reason for optimism in Houston? The Astros play in the AL West, and their pitching has been better than expected in September (or, at least it was until Sunday).
As scary as the pulp is – and he IS scary, with the highest strikeout rate in MLB this season and a 2.24 ERA in September – an inconsistent starting rotation (6.33 ERA in September) and anemic offense (29th in OPS this season) make it difficult for this club to find any consistency.
However, rookie Travis Bazzana is heating up at the right time and Steven Kwan is having a much better second half. However, it’s hard to imagine the Guardians doing anything significant unless or until José Ramírez finds another device.
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José Ramírez fractured the hamate bone in his left hand in mid-June and has struggled to regain his plate form since returning in late July. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
The South Siders’ ability to mash is what has gotten them to this point, but they have scored the fourth-fewest runs in baseball in September and rank 29th in OPS this month. Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery are all ice cold at the same time. Meanwhile, the deadline addition of Luis Castillo has done nothing to help the rotation.
On a positive note, they rank sixth in the MLB in home runs on the year, and the addition of rookie Hagen Smith to the bullpen in a multi-inning role has provided more stability in a problem area. Maybe the offense finds him again before it’s too late.
Arizona boasts the lowest team ERA in the NL this month, and the D-back rotation suddenly looks like it could be a strength now that Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka are all back from injury. The offense, however, has yet to put it all together (21st in OPS this season). It doesn’t help that Corbin Carroll’s back is hurt or that the D-backs did little to help their lineup at the deadline.
The Padres are doing what they need to do, beating lesser teams to claw their way into the playoff mix. It already looks like it will be a two-team battle between them and the D-backs for the final NL playoff spot, but at this rate, either could finish 4th or 5th as well.
The extensions of Casey Mize and Robbie Ray haven’t exactly worked out, but if Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill keep going the way they are now, that’s a trade the Padres could get.
Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle have a combined 1.15 ERA in September. That should get the Red Sox excited for October. Less exciting? Their offense is still not inspiring much confidence. And after going 3-3 this week against the Angels and Royals, the Red Sox must now close out the season against four contending teams (Rangers, Rays, Guardians, Cubs).
While the lineup hasn’t looked quite as dynamic lately — Chicago scored 12 total runs while being swept by the first-place Brewers last week — the Cubs still have the best offense (No. 1 in OPS and wRC+) and defense (No. 1 in defensive runs saved and strikeouts above average) in baseball at its best this season, and the best Alex is playing in baseball this season. That’s a tough starting point for any postseason hopeful.
The problem? The pitching still lacks reliability and playoff-caliber stuff in both the rotation and bullpen, even after a mix of deadline moves.
Aside from a setback in Cristopher Sánchez’s last start, the Phillies’ rotation has been dynamite in September. The bull, however, is a different story. And as good as Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm have been at the plate lately, lineup depth remains a concern. The Phillies have to hope that Jesus Luzardo’s stiff shoulder is only a temporary issue, because many are moving into that rotation that will carry the team next month.
A number of key pieces in the Yankees lineup (eg Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia Jr.) look great right now. However, the biggest superstar is still finding his way. Aaron Judge is 3-for-17 with nine hits and no extra base hits since returning from the injured list.
There’s a similar situation in the rotation, as Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler, Carlos Rodón, Max Fried and Will Warren have combined for a 1.29 ERA in September, while Gerrit Cole has allowed seven homers in 16.2 innings this month. If they can get Judge and Cole by October, there’s definitely a lot to like here.
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Aaron Judge has been off to a slow start at the plate since returning from the stress fracture in his rib that had kept him out since late April. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images)
Questions about the Braves’ rotation depth behind ace Chris Sale come October, but the addition of reliever Tyler Mahle (1.25 ERA in seven starts) is providing more optimism. Overall, the Braves lineup hasn’t exactly been tearing up the ball lately; however, Ronald Acuna Jr. he’s looking like a star again. This may be more important than the rest of the September cold spell of the attack.
A top three of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell could make all of the Dodgers’ other problems moot, but the bullpen isn’t nearly as reliable as the top of the rotation. Additionally, some recent encouraging signs from Teoscar Hernández and Kyle Tucker — plus the spark provided by top prospect Josue De Paula — can’t make up for the fact that both Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman have been hit at a brutal time.
With Shane McClanahan on the shelf, Freddy Peralta’s resurgence is coming at just the right time. Peralta has a 0.78 ERA over his last four starts, and along with Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Ian Seymour and potentially McClanahan (if healthy), there should be enough capable arms for the pitching to be a strength.
The Rays’ offense, meanwhile, ranks first in batting average and second in steals, but it remains to be seen how their strikeout-heavy approach — they rank 21st in expected slugging percentage and 29th in slugging percentage — will play out in October. There are many things that use Junior Caminero’s power.
It still would have been nice if they had added another impact bat at the deadline, but their lineup is leading the MLB in every slugging category in September, and Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio and William Contreras all look capable of running an offense right now. Surprisingly, considering how masterful their entire pitching operation is, the Brewers can’t feel overly confident about their options to start games in October other than Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson.
