It would be easy to assume that the recent play of Caitlin Clark – who ranks in the top three in both points and assists per game – would put the Indiana Fever superstar atop the WNBA MVP race, but the betting world shows why that’s just not the case.
Las Vegas Aces superstar A’ja Wilson remains the heavy favorite in the bookies (-1200 odds on DraftKings) and the prediction market (88 percent on Kalshi) to win his third consecutive MVP and record fifth overall. Minnesota Lynx rookie Olivia Miles is second at +800 and 8 percent, followed by Clark at 35 to 1 and 4 percent, then Clark’s teammate Kelsey Mitchell at 40 to 1 and 1 percent.
We know voters consider a candidate’s relative value to their team, but how can that actually be quantified? The Athletic attempted this by asking betting experts to estimate the impact of each candidate against the point spread if their team was favored by five points on a neutral ground before accounting for their absence.
“It’s similar with the quarterbacks, and (their) scoring adjustment is based on (the toss-off between them and) the backup. A lot of it is relative to what’s left on the team,” said longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker and Circa Sports senior risk manager Jeff Sherman The Athletic. “That’s where Wilson excels.”
Wilson received the most recognition of every expert interviewed, but the value ranged from four to eight points. Everyone also agreed that Wilson’s defense separates her, which is why she is also the second favorite to win her fourth Defensive Player of the Year award (+160).
“A’ja Wilson is the league’s most valuable player because of her great two-way game. With her defensive ability in addition to her obvious offensive talent, her impact in the spread is the highest in the league,” said David Lieberman, pro basketball player at Caesars Sportsbook. “Depending on the game/situation, it would be worth 6-8 points.”
Wilson leads the league in scoring (26 points per game) and blocks (2 per game), but a deeper statistical dive reveals a dominance that no other player can match: She owns the highest PER (player efficiency rating) by a significant margin at 30.1.
By raw math, Clark moves the odds far less than our eyes might suggest. Her impact on the point spread ranges from just 1.5 to four points, depending on which pundit you ask – similar to Mitchell and Miles. But the shade reveals much more depth.
“The team’s success has shown they’re finding a way to play a different style of ball without (Clark). It’s a crazy record, missing one of the most ceiling-raising players in league history,” said Dano Mataya, betting analyst for HerHoopsStats.
Watch this: Mitchell, Clark combine for 67 as fever rolls across the sky
Clark missed four games this season, yet Indiana won and covered them all. In last year’s playoffs without her, the Fever were underdogs in all eight games and managed to win half.
“This team played a lot of games without her, and they were very competitive,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. The Athletic. “I know people might think she has the biggest impact and plays at a high level, but I still can’t hit that number.”
Besides, these games are never played in a vacuum. Clark and fever attract all kinds of attention, and it also draws out the maximum effort of the opponent.
“It’s also a case of opponents thinking, ‘Caitlin’s not playing, so we can relax,”’ Mataya said. “They get up for games when Caitlin comes to town. They know the game is on national television and a million people will be watching it.”
Plus, Mitchell is part of the reason the Fever can stay competitive without Clark: Experts have her worth between two and 3.5 points, half a point from Clark, thanks in part to her elite shooting, quickness on the kill and the structure of play alongside Clark.
“Kelsey is just a stronger guard and makes more plays on the ball. Because of (Fever backup) Ty Harris, it’s about the value of a backup player,” Mataya said. “They’re just doing better things for her, while Caitlin is doing so much on her own creation and game screens.”
Add to that the fact that Clark also starts alongside four-time All-Star Aliyah Boston, and both her and Clark’s campaigns are hindered by the strength of their teammates – but they’re not alone.
Mataya estimates Miles’ scoring impact at just 1.5 points, given that starter Courtney Williams earned All-Star honors at point guard last year and can handle the reins. Plus, Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve is the league’s all-time winningest coach and showed roster flexibility to win four titles.
None of this is to say that the market got Clark wrong. This means that the point answers a narrower question than the MVP ballot. Perhaps her value lies in this Fever team’s ceiling — and her own. The 24-year-old is believed to be still on the rise, while the 30-year-old Wilson has actually hit her peak.
The exercise clarifies the conversation by reducing the MVP race to the only thing a point spread can measure. Every sportsbook, model and bettor arrives under the same name – the one with a huge advantage to win the prize.