The Springboks were frighteningly good against All black people in their four-game Greatest Rivalry Tour; he showed how physical, fit and composed you have to be to fight the Boks.
That standard has been on another planet compared to what we’ve seen from the Wallabies to date in 2026, something Wallabies coach Les Kiss is well aware of ahead of the clash with the Springboks in Perth.
“The intensity of those matches (Greatest Rivalry Tour Tests) was there for sure,” Kiss said at his Wallabies team launch in Canberra on Monday.
“But if you watch all the games, there are opportunities … but there’s that intensity and physicality, so we’re a little bit away from that for sure in the last four games.”
“We know we have to be better in certain areas … they’re in our backyard, so we’ll be ready to fight.”
Of course, the Wallabies had purple spots, like when they dominated Ireland in the first stanza, but they weren’t consistent, and they weren’t when Kiss was the head coach either.
Looking back on the Greatest Rivalry Tour, the All Blacks were valiant and exciting in their efforts but ultimately came up short.
In four matches, they threw 738 passes for an average of 184 per match, making a total of 506 tackles for an average of 126 per game, and although they scored 17 tries to the Boks’ 14, they came up short.
Perhaps most telling of all is that, for all their ball movement and effort, they averaged just 2.4 meters after contact per carry, while the Boks averaged 3.2m, making more post-contact meters than almost 100 fewer carries.
That was the power of the Boks, their strength, their physical dominance.
The Wallabies can’t play the South Africans at their own game, but I can reckon no amount of running rugby will get you past the Springboks on their current form.
The Wallabies also have to admit they can’t play the wide-to-wide game better than the All Blacks; they don’t have more experienced players, nor do they have bigger or necessarily faster players.
The Wallabies need to match their swing attack and wide play with players who can run through the Boks, as well as defensive power players who can stop them on their way through the middle.
The problem of choice and the task is easier said than done.
The All Blacks discovered first-hand that at 3.2 meters after contact per carry, the Springboks are lethal in the 22-metre zone and the Wallabies struggled to contain the opposition in their D-Zone at the best of times.
The All Blacks now know that a free 22m entry on the back of poor discipline means only one thing: the Springbok are trying.
That will mean the same for the Wallabies unless they find their starch in defence, especially in their D-Zone.
While this all seems a bit bleak and obvious, it all comes down to choice now.
Kiss fielded the third Wallabies squad of his tenure and stuck with a tight-knit 34-man squad for this one-off against the world champions Springboks.
Kiss selected 19 forwards and 15 guards, and brought back some old and new faces.
Utility back Jordan Petaia is the most prominent name on the list, after a brief stint in the NFL and France’s Top 14, and has now signed with Urayasu D-Rocks in Japan Division One.
At 190cm and 102kg, Petaia is a large specimen and the right profile of player for what the Wallabies will need against the Boks and if their game plan is to be successful going forward.
However, after only 478 minutes on French Top 14 side Perpignan, which is less than a quarter of the possible 2080 minutes that can be played during the regular season, not to mention Challenger Cup minutes, Petaia is anything but a sure thing after three years in the wilderness.
He’s an exciting talent, as mentioned, he makes the profile and covers multiple positions, but given he’s likely to be available for just one Test, it’s an interesting choice from Kiss, who say they only want to have a look at Petaia.
Regardless of whether Kiss plays Petaya or not, ex-Queensland Red the prodigy won’t be their silver bullet against the world champions; Kiss will choose his biggest and meanest team at his disposal.
While there are players on the unavailable list that would help, Kiss has to play the hand he was dealt, that is, the hand he chose.
The Wallabies have secured the services of Exeter Chiefs’ Tom Hooper as well as Racing 92’s Taniela Tupou for this Springboks clash but will return to Europe for the Bledisloe clash.
Regardless, in Perth, these two provide the Wallabies with starch in defence, as well as height and bulk in the set-up.
Whether the Wallabies can match the Boks at set piece is a live question, and while their squads have been bright and decent, the Boks pack is a different sauce with that eight-man push.
Overall, the Boks belted the All Blacks and held them to just 2.4m after contact per carry.
To contrast this with the Wallabies’ efforts: against Japan and Argentina The Wallabies managed an average of just 2.38m per carry against sides 11 and seven ranks lower than the Springboks.
With this serious figure in mind, Kiss needs to pick those in his pack who will have the upper hand, but also needs to pick people who will be a nuisance at the breakdown and forwards in defense to slow down South Africa’s green wall.
Three Wallabies forwards in the current squad have achieved 66% win rate or more Super Rugby Pacific 2026
Rob Valitini and Fraser McReight scored 66%, as did Josh Canham, who scored 67%.
After that, whore Josh Nasser took 64% and locks Lukhan Salakaia-Loto and Jeremy Williams 62% and 63%, respectively.
The rest of the group followed captain Harry Wilson, who managed 58% in the rough to a 42% gain.
Salakaia-Lotto stands out for his ability to draw 2+ defenders 75% of his career; the next best is Valitini with 71%. After these two, it goes away pretty quickly.
Getting a win often tells how a wider team is doing and it will be tough and slow against the Springboks if the Boks have their way.
Therefore, the Wallabies must be dominant in the lead if things go badly on the momentum front.
Valetini is, unsurprisingly, the best in the Wallabies business with 39% dominant carries, but even Salakaia-Lotto is well below the order at 31%.
To put this into context, guys like Marc Van Staden have 49% and Toulouse giant Emmanuel Meafou is on 47.5%
As for the rest of the Wallabies pack, only four others managed 30%: Cale, Tizzano, Canham and McReight.
Put simply, the Wallabies have clear players to choose from if they hope to build an advantage and dominate the collisions.
On the unavailable list, Langi Gleeson and Will Skelton are two players who would drastically change this picture, which gives you hope for the future.
In the back line, Isaac Henry gives you the highest winning line at 65%, Len Ikitau draws 2+ defenders 72% of the time, and Henry makes the most dominant carries 55% of the time.
Hunter Paisami is there or thereabouts with these numbers.
During the kiss tests, the numbers in his attack system paint a pretty clear picture.
Ikitau, Henry and Paisami most often beat defenders at one defender for every second carry for the top two, and every five carries for Paisami.
On average, Ikitau and Paisami make the most post-contact meters at 2.6 m and 2.5 m, respectively; however, if you want line breaks, you choose Henry, who makes a line break every six times, much more often than anyone else.
Those numbers with ball in hand are positive enough for the Wallabies to hope they have a chance, but on the defensive end things look a little shakier.
Only Salakaia-Lotto has more than a 10% dominant tackle stat, and despite most players shooting at 85% or higher, simply running tackles against the Boks won’t work.
But this is where Petaia could shine.
From the entire Opta data set, Petaia was the 18th most dominant striker out of the entire SRP, French Top 14, URC and English Prem with a whopping 14.3% dominant tackle rate, along with 81%.
Where Petaia falls into the Wallabies equation remains to be seen, but Kiss said most likely “back three” and apart from his height and size, his defensive physicality is the only stat that really stands out compared to the other back three members of the team.
His ability to play center, wing and guard naturally makes him the ideal man for the 23 jumper, but in terms of raw metrics, he doesn’t stand out as much as some might think.
The reason this article has focused on the pack and centers is because they are the workhorses, the guys who will carry the most, and while the players will be just as key, the brute force required to overcome the Boks is clear.
While being able to deal with and detach from blunt force trauma will be the deciding factor in Perth, mastering the sky is as imperative as maintaining discipline.
With all these numbers in front of us, frankly, the Wallabies have not shown to date that they have enough defensive starch to deal with the Boks, nor that they have enough shots from 1-15 to pick up the necessary points.
Kiss will have to choose wisely to get more than they have from their men and their game plan.