Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour game tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. An experienced golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read their picks below for the VidantaWorld Mexico Open 2026, which starts on Thursday in Nuevo Nayarit.
After a short trip to Bermuda in the middle of the Atlantic, the golfers will go west this week to the shores of the Pacific Ocean along the coast of Mexico. This marks the fifth year that Vidanta Vallarta, located between Nuevo and Puerto Vallarta, will host the Mexican Open as part of the PGA Tour schedule. This is the first year that this tournament has been held as part of the FedEx Cup Fall Series.
The previous four champions of the tournament are Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Jake Knapp and Brian Campbell. Campbell beat Aldrich Potgeiter last fall in a playoff to become the true outlier among a group of absolute bombers.
The golf course is a Greg Norman design, with wide paspalum grass fairways, lots of bunkering and water hazards, very little rough, and very large, Paspalum greens. It is a par 71 that stretches over 7,300 yards. The main defense of the course is the wind, but the forecast calls for calm conditions throughout the week, although a storm or two is expected in the afternoon. The average winning score over the first four editions of this event is 20 under par.
While landing correctly on the absolute winner is never easy, the focus of skills for this golf course is quite simple: Hit long from the tee and be marked with long irons from more than 200 yards. With that, I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Birdies or Better Percentage, Hole Proximity from 200+ yards, and Strokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum).
We regularly see wide-fairway, bomber-friendly courses on Tour, and when you look closely, many of the same names tend to appear on these rankings. I looked Torrey Pines (Farmers Open Insurance), Memorial Park (Houston Open), Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms Championship), Corals (Campionato Corales Puntacana), and TPC Craig Ranch – home of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in Texas.
Marco Money (28-1)
In his last eight starts around the world, Penge has finished in the top 20 five times. Over the last 20 rounds, he is the longest player off the tee in the field this week. He is 14th in this field for SG: Ball Striking, 16th for Birdie or Better Percentage, and is eighth for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards. He is currently 112th in the FedEx Cup standings, needing to crack the top 100 to keep his Tour card.
Brown Blades (33-1)
Brown has spent most of his young career on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he just finished runner-up at the Tour Championship a few weeks ago. In April, Brown finished victorious in the Tulum Championship in Riviera Maya, Mexico – another golf course that features wall-to-wall Paspalum Grass. On the PGA Tour, he has finished in the top 20 in five of his last six starts, and that includes an 11th-place finish at Corales Puntacana. In March, Brown was third at the Puerto Rico Open, another Paspalum golf course, on the coast. Over the past 20 rounds, Brown ranks second in this field for SG: Approach, fourth for SG: Ball Striking, and is 11th for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards.
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Andrew Novak (40-1)
Last week in Bermuda was tough. Novak started well and then, of course, never finished with the time limiting the tournament to just 54 holes. Novak was eighth in that field last week for SG: Approach and was third for Green in Regulation. He is one of the best players in the field this week for Hole Proximity by more than 200 yards, ranking 15th. Novak finished eighth and 15th here at Vidanta, seventh and third in his last two trips to Torrey Pines, and as high as 11th at Corales Puntacana.
Jordan Smith (45-1)
Smith is a long batsman whose primary strength is hitting the ball – and he’s one of the best players in this field this week, so I’ll give him a shot to take home the trophy. Similar to Marco Penge, Smith is an Englishman completing his first full year on the PGA Tour. Both players came off the DP World Tour after finishing top 10 in the Race for Dubai which will qualify one for a PGA Tour card next year. Over the last 20 rounds, Smith ranks 22nd in this field for SG: Ball Striking and 28th for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards. He was fourth in his last start three weeks ago in the Baycurrent Classic.
Luke Clanton (60-1)
The Florida State Seminole burst onto the Tour scene two years ago when he finished runner-up at the John Deere Classic and the RSM Classic. This season, Clanton finished fifth in Puerto Rico in March, seventh in Utah four weeks ago, and 11th last week in Bermuda. He is No. 1 in this field for SG: Approach and 13th for SG: Ball Striking in the last 20 rounds.