Ever since this fight was announced, I’ve had a feeling it’s a mismatch. Below is an attempt to see that I can justify my “feelings” with something real to back it up or dismiss this argument.
Long distance
Gane has some of the best footwork and range attack; if not a best HW in the game. His range of shots combined with a solid jab that he uses both as a power shot to step in and follow up with a power arm, as well as a piston shot, moving backwards away from counters.
While the official stats may call Gane orthodox, we can’t forget how he sets up a high southpaw through repeated body shots while still in a southpaw stance. He can power from both positions!
So how do you get into Hokit? Hokit is shorter, with a significant lack of reach. Any damage he can do to the legs is close, and his best chance for a finish is on the ground; which also requires Josh to get close enough to shoot for a takedown.
I just don’t see any way Hokit can even shoot the takedown!!!
Boxing track
Assuming Hokit can somehow get into range where his hands can touch Gane, that means he’s in clinch range.
Hokit usually has the advantage in the clinch against most opponents, but this is one fight where I believe Gane has dominated him. Not only is Gane taller and bigger, he’s also a stronger MMA grappler in my opinion. He can be nasty with a Thai plum and really hurt Hokit when he strikes, while the uppercut/elbows mean Hokit doesn’t have much to offer in terms of damaging strikes.
If he gets in range, Hokit has to use his chain wrestling to take the fight to the ground. It won’t be easy.
Can Gane get a takedown from the clinch? Yes!!
Hockey still needs to be taken down!!
Ground game
If we expect Hokit to somehow land this fight when he’s on, the game changes. While Gane has jiu-jitsu, I’m not sure he has the skills to sweep and recover from a lifelong grappler like Hokit. If Hokit gets to top position, back, or some other relatively dominant position on the ground, he can ride him, GnP him, and possibly find a finish.
Also, Gane makes some strange decisions on the spot that have cost him (vs. Francis). But I see it as an anomaly that came out with the inexperienced Gane, and I think he’s a lot calmer and more confident in his fighting now.
But overall this is where I give the edge to Hokit.
Heart and pace
Hockey has heart and pace. He’s been able to use it effectively to break down opponents, but Gane is one of the rare pushes in HW who can match Hokit in cardio, and I can’t see him whining even if it requires a lot of grappling. Hokit could finish him by hurting him or submitting to him, but I don’t see Gane as a guy who loses because he’s too exhausted.
Even Stevens!!
Speed
Although Hokit has had the speed advantage over their HW opponents so far; Gane is just as fast as Hokit, and the speed advantage (whatever the little Hokit has) must be used to smartly get into range without eating up jabs or punches, which are the basis of Gane’s offense (and defense).
Even Stevens!!
My personal opinion about Hokit
I’ve enjoyed watching Hokit move up the HW ladder. He sues and never tires. I don’t need anything more from a HW fighter. Hokit also brings real grappling skills to the table that are at a high level in the HW division!!
First time a fighter’s act outside the cage has made me smile!!! And he’s American. I want American HW Champion!!! Not to mention the dude is active (but that changes when the dudes become champs)!!!
Conclusion
I started to say it was a mismatch. The above mentioned were my running thoughts to see if I could convince myself one way or the other. Well, I have.
Hockey is against it, with very few routes to victory. I see Gane putting away Hokit with the confidence of a champion.
Keep him at bay with long shots to the leg and body and kicks, set up the high kick, win clinch exchanges and don’t let the fight go down.
Expected result: And still…Cyryl Gane…R3 KO/TKO
PS:
As for Gane, I’m 100% ignoring Jon’s fight as it was another mismatch.
Inconsistencies at the highest levels are not at all unusual. Styles make fights and skills pay the bills. In most respects, Gane is ahead against Hokit, just as he was behind against Jon.