It’s time for the white-hot love of hope to meet the wet blanket of doubt. It’s not exactly fun to talk about overrated teams before a meaningful football game even starts, but it’s something that needs to be done. Whether you’re paying attention to Super Bowl odds in June, or if the entire league is an academic exercise. all the time Teams that get a lot of credit before things start.
Let’s take a look at the four teams who are getting the most credit for the 2026 season based on where they’ve been on their respective lines.
It hurts to say that the bears are overstuffed, because it really feels like giving a baby an ice cream cone and then slapping it out of their little hands. Bears fans have waited too long to be relevant and have been pushed too high together in most preseason rankings and potential Super Bowl teams.
Ben Johnson is a fantastic football coach on the offensive side of the ball, and Chicago should be able to continue to be strong in that area – but the defense is an absolute mess. In the year If we look at just 2025, it was a team that ranked 23rd in points allowed, 29th in yards allowed, 22nd in passing, and 28th against the run. The saving grace is that the Bears produced an uncharacteristic number of turnovers, with a net rating of +22, which overshadows how bad the defense has been.
The thing about odd statistics is that they are. Unusual. It’s unlikely the Bears will make many changes in 2026, leaving the defense even more vulnerable. Chicago has all the trappings of a 9-8 team being treated like a 13+ win juggernaut.
I don’t for the life of me understand why people are so over Texas right now. As of this writing, they are not only the favorite in the AFC South, but are tied for 9th in Super Bowl odds – behind the Chiefs and Eagles.
We know Houston’s defense is impressive, but this is another season where CJ Stroud plays behind a shaky offensive line, and David Montgomery is a good running back under center. The Texans will need to have the same defensive performance as a year ago to hit the kind of heights they’re being paid for, and Stroud will need to be a significantly better quarterback — all of the details are more or less the same.
Not seeing the noise here. A good team? Yes. Playoff team? Yes. A Super Bowl contender? No.
Yes, I’m throwing two teams from the NFC North in here because I think the division is fantastic when it comes to producing quality football teams, but boring when it comes to the playoffs.
Two things may be true: 1. I think Jordan Love is better than most people give him credit for and 2. The Packers are overstuffed every year. Every year they get paid a real Super Bowl contender, and every year they waste it. I basically don’t see how this season is different. Especially Entering the year without Josh Jacobs, who may never play NFL football again.
Micah Parsons alone isn’t enough to turn this defense into an elite unit. Meanwhile, the receivers are still coming together, and the team can be one-dimensional on offense. This is probably a 12 win team, but not a Super Bowl caliber team.
No. 4: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are exactly what we think. This team has one of the best running backs in the NFL. of Best wide receiver – but year after year we see that Joe Burroughs and Jay Marr Chase aren’t enough to win championships on their own.
As it stands now, the Bengals are being given better Super Bowl chances than the 49ers, Lions or Broncos. For a team that still lacks a solid defense or offensive line and is still being led by a mediocre head coach, it’s truly impressive.
Caught in this mindset, the idea that a team can win with great quarterbacks and receivers is locked in an old mindset. That’s the same trap we fall into every year with Peyton Manning’s Coles, except for a team with legitimate pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Bengals have none, and will be an above-average team, but nothing special.