It’s time for this week’s Sports Book Whispers.
As shown in last week’s storythe whole world was really on SMU -3/-3.5 against Florida State in the Week 1 finale, and every Seminoles reverse bet was pushed to +3 and cashed out at +3.5.
All the early movers at SMU in smaller numbers reached the window, as that number hovered between PK and -1.5 all summer.
Numbers matter!
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“We got crushed with SMU’s money,” South Point sports book director Chris Andrews told me from Las Vegas. “So many people who put in a cash deal over the weekend needed SMU to take care of business and they did.”
The Mustangs turned the ball over four times, but their offense really did everything it wanted to the tune of 585 yards. The wise guys who do the power ratings were impressed with SMU, but much more vulnerable with FSU.
“I’ve got Florida State down six points in two weeks,” a former bettor-turned-bettor we’ll call Slice told me over the phone.
“That program continues to go in the wrong direction.”
Speaking of misdirection, holy Clemson.
The Tigers were annihilated 51-10 by LSU in Baton Rouge. Lane Kiffin’s Tigers outgained Dabo Swinney’s Tigers 499 yards and won the first down battle 38 to eight.
It was a hit, plain and simple.
Dabo Swinney is off to a rough start in the 2026 season (Getty Images).
“I took Clemson from the level of Florida and brought them down to the level of Pittsburgh and Illinois,” Slice said. “That was alarming.”
“It’s hard to tell after just one game whether a team is as good or as bad as it looked,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told me. “Clemson certainly didn’t show anything positive in this game, but we’ve seen examples in the past where the first game can be deceiving.
“Last year, Florida State’s performance against Alabama made Alabama look a lot worse than it was, while Florida State turned out to be as good as that score suggested. That’s why we try not to overreact to a single game. We’ll take the score into consideration, but it’s important to let more information develop before making drastic adjustments.”
A drastic adjustment came to the Heisman market, with star Miami receiver Malachi Toney. He was up to 40/1 on the Canes’ matchup with Stanford.
You can kiss that price goodbye.
“Toney was our biggest mover in the Heisman market,” Feazel reported. “He had an outstanding performance to start his second season in Miami, which immediately caught the attention of the punters.
“We cut it significantly from 35/1 to 10/1”.
Miami’s Malachi Toney got a lot of love from “The Playmaker” after Week 1 (Getty Images).
Toney’s teammate Darian Mensah is now the Heisman favorite at +550, followed by Texas’ Arch Manning, Toney, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss.
I had an interesting conversation with retired Vegas punter Ed Salmons about the nuances of complicating power ratings after Week 1. As you can imagine, not all increases or decreases are created equal.
“I try not to overdo it with lesser teams getting drilled by much better teams,” Salmons said. “Take Florida Atlantic for example. They played Florida and got a workout, but you can find good things in the middle of that game.
Then there’s a team like Michigan, which needed an extra game at the end of regulation to beat Western Michigan 13-12 as a 28-point home favorite.
The Wolverines now host Oklahoma on FOX’s Big Noon Saturday. The forecast number stayed around Oklahoma -1 all summer and now almost every store is out at Oklahoma -5.5.
Seems high, doesn’t it?
“Either it’s Michigan betting on a good number if it scores a little or passes,” Salmons said. “There’s no way I’m playing Oklahoma here.”
Something else?
“I think Ohio State and Texas have to be the picks this Saturday,” Salmons admitted. “And I’d hate to bet that this Texas program is the favorite.
“I’ll be on the Buckeyes.”