Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles were projected to beat the Washington Chiefs by a touchdown. Mitchell Leaf/Getty Images
The NFL is back and it’s kicking off Wednesday. My NFL Projection model is tuned and ready to go for the new season.
All my predictions have come back 2026 NFL shows. It can show your team’s odds of making the playoffs, your team’s odds of winning each game in the schedule, as well as the odds for each team to win the playoffs, division, or Super Bowl.
But let’s focus on Week 1. Here, my model provides projected spreads and points for all 16 NFL games this week starting with Wednesday’s season opener between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.
For context, I built an NFL Projection Model that takes play-by-play data to create projections for every team in the league. These predictions are adjusted for opponent and foul time before spitting out expected points per game for offense and defense. From there, I plug these values into the model and get the expected distribution and total NFL season for each game.
Below are my predictions for each game compared to the FanDuel betting lines. The biggest difference is that the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 5.5 points over the Atlanta Falcons in my model betting spread as opposed to 3.5 points.
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