After warning his Scotland side right after last Saturday’s crushingly famous defeat of New Zealand that no player will be held sacred when it comes to potential changes to face Australia, should Gregor Townsend decide to make just two changes to his starting line-up.
Two members of a trio that not so long ago were considered his main defenders – Blair Kinghorn and Darcy Graham – are again up front (the third, Duhan van der Merwe, remains on the outside looking in) with Kyle Rowe and Jamie Dobie the men to make way.
If Dobie’s demotion is mitigated by a place among the substitutes, where his ability to cover scrum-half and wing make him invaluable assets in a six-to-two bench, the hapless Rowe missed 23 in total.
The pack that went against All black people gets a chance, somewhat surprisingly, to redeem himself en bloc, with a new face in Ollie Leatherbarrow – he would be the 85th debutant of Townsend’s nine-and-a-half-year reign – waiting to jump off the bench.
Here are four takeaways after the head coach sat down with the media to discuss his selection and what he expects from a Wallabies side that his sides have triumphed over in four of their five meetings during his tenure.
Graham ‘in a very good place’ while Kinghorn’s ‘attitude’ impresses
Graham, Scotland’s top scorer with 38 in his 57 games, has only had one 60-minute outing this season for Edinburgh, against Toulon on October 16, and came into camp nursing a minor calf problem, which has ruled him out of training with Scotland and playing for his club against Benetton October 31.
That clearly bothered him in the build-up to the New Zealand game – “we didn’t really consider him,” Townsend said – despite being declared fully fit and training with the squad.
But as with Kinghorn, who started Toulouse’s last two games before the November international window after a month recovering from his own problems, Townsend has seen enough in training to believe both deserve a return to their former status.
“When we opened up the discussion about Jamie (Dobie) being on the bench for the 6-2 covering scrum-half and wing, then we looked at the back three and how well Darcy trained, how well Blair trained. But also where Darcy is at the moment, he’s in a very good place and we can’t wait to see him play with the back three. aerial competition and he’s done really well.
“Blair had to come back and play for Toulouse in between (the opening week of training and the All Blacks game) but he turned up and trained after playing the game on Sunday night. I am really impressed with his attitude and quality of training.
“It just affects the selection. We know there’s a lot of competition in that back three, a lot in the 15. Blair finished the Six Nations in really good form, when I think back on France and the games of Ireland. Kyle Rowe played very well on tour. Now Blair gets a chance this week and Darcy gets a chance on how he’s trained and how he’s played for the team in the past.”
Deactivating Sua’ali’i air threat critical for Scotland
That ‘aerial game’ the back three have been working on is likely to take on even more importance given the forecast for Sunday’s game, with a 90 per cent chance of heavy rain hitting Murrayfield.
“I just texted our analyst and said, ‘Has it changed?’ And he said, ‘Yeah, I think it’s worse,'” Townsend said when asked about the prognosis. “Look, if it’s going to be wet, I think both teams who like to move the ball understand that defense is going to be very important, your decision-making with possession is going to be important, but you’ve got to play physical rugby, you’ve got to be very good in transition if there’s more tackles, so we’ll adapt.”
Given the likely conditions, expect the Wallabies to direct plenty of high kicks near Joseph-Aukuso Su’uali’i, who has moved back to outside center from the wing position he has occupied in three of the Wallabies’ last four Tests.
“At center he brings an extra aerial threat and is likely to get more of the ball in the 13 than he might have on the wing,” noted Townsend. “It’s a quality Australian side that wants to play ambitious rugby.
“We’ll see how it goes if it’s bad weather. If it’s going to be wet he’ll be a guy we believe will challenge for contested shots and he’s excellent. He had two or three at the start of the game against England. He had two or three.
“We’ve got to find out where the attacking areas are and it might not be anywhere near him, but we’ll certainly be keeping an eye on how he performs at 13.”
Bayliss is ‘close to starting’ but could he be Scotland’s Pollock?
Only five of Josh Bayliss’ 19 games for Scotland to date have been in a starting role, but such was Bath The back-rower’s influence off the bench in recent Tests now strongly advocates for more regular, sustained action.
Townsend said he was “very close” to starting against Australia – he has played mainly at six and eight for Bath this season – with his all-round skill a huge boon.
“Josh was great off the bench again last week,” Townsend said. “He’s been really good for us. He’s a line forward. He’s someone who adds real pace and he’s hard to defend at times because he’s got footwork and evasion.
“If you just look at his performance in isolation, you’d say, ‘yes, he deserves to start’, but we also have to look at our back row. It was the first Test match of the season; Matt Fagerson didn’t play for a month, Jack Dempsey only played one pre-season game. We believe he’ll be better after this week, so we don’t expect this week. He had one game there.
“On the other hand, Josh’s role off the bench is really important for us. He scored a great try in this match (against Australia) a couple of years ago. He came off the bench in Wales this year was excellent. (Against) South Africa, excellent. Weekend, great. You don’t necessarily play well and suddenly start, but what you do is probably earn more minutes off the bench. He can really help us in that second half.”
If Jamie Dobie is forced into action early, if fly-half Ben White is injured, Bayliss could even be deployed on the wing, a position he trains regularly with his club, raising the possibility of a Henry Pollock hybrid role on Sunday.
Nations Championship
North
P
W
L
D
PF
Well
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
In total
1
4
3
1
0
17
2
4
3
1
0
15
3
4
3
1
0
15
4
4
2
2
0
11
5
4
2
2
0
10
6
4
0
4
0
0
South
P
W
L
D
PF
Well
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
In total
1
4
4
0
0
20
2
4
4
0
0
20
3
4
1
3
0
8
4
4
1
3
0
7
5
4
1
3
0
5
6
4
0
4
0
0
“I would say we had two options before,” Townsend added. “Tom Jordan can play fullback and Blair (Kinghorn) can go on the wing. That would probably be the simpler choice. But if we had to go to the third linebacker, then Josh is obviously a guy that can go there.”
Leatherbarrow’s versatility gave him the nod on the bench
Most seasoned observers could already name 26 or 27 of the 33-man Scotland World Cup squad. The group is largely settled, but as always, the intrigue will be in the last half-dozen places, with the fiercest competition in the back three, second row and back row.
Auditions for the latter continue on Sunday with the all-rounder Newcastle Red Bulls striker ready to make his test debut from the bench.
The 24-year-old enjoyed a breakthrough season in the losing side last year, starting 13 of his 15 matches, including eight in the No.8 position. This term has been harder to get to the start with just two – one in seven, one in six – so far. The remainder of his eight outings have been as a shortstop, the role he will be deployed to on Sunday.
“He’s fit in really well,” Townsend said. “What you’re looking for from a player coming in is to do their homework, familiarize themselves with the language and the system, and then when you see them in training, are they not only aligned with what we want to do, but are they contributing positively? We’ve seen that with Ollie. Sometimes it’s hard to come into a new team, but it’s a credit to him that he can cover everything for us and we’ve been on top of them all 6-2. feel how he can help us on both sides of the ball, whenever it’s in the game.”
Townsend may, for different, specialist reasons, have recruited either of Edinburgh’s in-form flankers Liam McConnell and Freddy Douglas – and both could get a chance to show their wares against Japan next Saturday.
But Leatherbarrow’s ability to cover all three positions means he can show he can win one of just six back-row spots available at the World Cup, with Bayliss and the currently injured Jamie Ritchie filling two of them alongside the established trio of Matt Fagerson, Rompa Darge and Jack De.
“Ollie is direct and I think he’s more like Jack Dempsey. We know we’ve played a lot of opensides as well, we need a presence at the breakdown.”
“For those reasons, the mix of the back row, the fact that we know he’s going to carry hard, that he’s going to look for opportunities, then that probably gave him an advantage over someone like Freddy. Obviously, he’s great on the ball as well.”