The 2026 Formula 1 title race has become a two-horse race between Mercedes duo Kimi Antonelli and George Russell with eight rounds remaining.
Antonelli leads Russell by 66 points ahead of this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia and it will be fascinating to see how the Italian reacts after what he called his “worst weekend” of the season last time out in Baku.
Depending on the quality of Mercedes’ major upgrade package to be unveiled in Malaysia this week, we could see the Silver Arrows dominate the final third of the season.
However, there is one driver that everyone on the grid mentions every weekend when it comes to who could challenge, or who will be a threat – and that is Max Verstappen.
This year is the first season Verstappen has not challenged for the title since 2020, having won four consecutive championships from 2021 to 2024 and is just two points away from a remarkable comeback in 2025 to beat Lando Norris.
After a difficult start to 2026, Red Bull appear to be back on an upward trajectory and history shows that Verstappen will be a problem for the other title contenders.
A repeat of 2016?
Ten years ago, Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton were chasing the title and Rosberg just came out on top.
It was an incredible, tense end to the season, but during the crash, despite Mercedes having a dominant car, a 19-year-old Verstappen gave Rosberg and Hamilton a headache on several occasions.
“My God, having him around in the races! The risk of a DNF for myself goes up like 10-fold,” said Rosberg. Sky Sports F1 reflecting on 2016.
“On my way to the championship, I had him around me in every race the last four races. He passed me, I think three of those four races, in a fight.”
At the Japanese Grand Prix, Verstappen found himself ahead of Hamilton in the closing stages and was prepared to defend aggressively in their fight for second after the British driver’s frustration.
Hamilton claimed that Verstappen “steered under the brakes” which led to the FIA cracking down on such a maneuver which became known as the “Verstappen Rule”.
While Brazil 2016 is remembered for Verstappen’s remarkable return to the podium in pouring rain, he was actually second earlier in the race after leapfrogging Rosberg at Turn 3.
We still don’t have a wet race or qualifying in 2026 and, in theory, cars with more downforce should be better in the wet. But Verstappen’s ability in the rain cannot be underestimated and he will be willing to take risks when the Mercedes drivers cannot, similar to Rosberg in 2016.
Max Verstappen holds off Nico Rosberg at the 2016 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Photo by Red Bull Content Pool/Clive Mason/Getty Images)
And in the season finale, Verstappen spun on the opening lap and fell to the back, but implemented an alternative strategy and, midway through the race, had Rosberg behind him, who was on fresher tires after pitting and had to overtake the Red Bull driver.
“Tony (Ross, Rosberg’s race engineer) saying it’s critical to pass Verstappen for the championship… holy shit, seriously!” explained Rosberg.
“The feelings that I had in the battle and immediately afterwards when I realized that I passed it, I have never had in a racing car before in my life.”
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Check out some of the best title deciders from the past decade
Are Red Bull now a real threat to Mercedes?
Mercedes has consistently had a fast car in every race in 2026, not always the fastest, but good enough to at least challenge for victory.
Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull on the other hand have been up and down – all three have clear weaknesses that make them uncompetitive at certain tracks.
On average, Red Bull have had the fourth fastest car, but Verstappen impressively has the most podiums (seven) of any non-Mercedes driver and five of those have come in the last six rounds.
Red Bull brought their last major upgrade package of the season to Baku and both drivers were delighted with the new parts, which included a new floor body, diffuser and side bolsters.
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Highlights from the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Verstappen was less than two tenths from grabbing victory from Russell while Isack Hadjar finished an impressive third in his first race since late July – marking the first time in more than two years that two Red Bull drivers have featured on the podium.
“On paper, Baku was the most favorable (track) in terms of car characteristics,” Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies said.
“Also, I think the performance we have shown in the competition is giving us good hope that we will have a few more chances before the end of the year.
“Apart from getting a few more chances to get that first win, it’s also good to go to the tracks where it’s going to be more difficult because that’s exactly what we have to deal with to keep progressing.”
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Red Bull drivers Isack Hadjar and Max Verstappen reflect on the Azerbaijan GP
The big test of Red Bull’s upgrades will come this weekend at the Sepang International Circuit – a more traditional track with big corners at medium and high speeds that tests a car’s aerodynamics.
Tire wear has been an issue for Red Bull, but if their improvements in Baku have fixed that, Verstappen and Hadjar should be competitive again.
Verstappen: If there is a chance to win, we go for it
It’s a milestone Mekies alluded to earlier as Red Bull and Verstappen have won a race every year since 2016.
Verstappen will play down his desire to extend his winning streak to 10 consecutive seasons (the record is 15 held by Hamilton and Michael Schumacher), but surely deep down he wants to be on the top step of the podium at least once this year.
“If Mercedes is bringing an improvement and it works, then they take a step forward, and that’s not what you want. It will make it even more difficult to win,” Verstappen said.
“But we will try every weekend and, of course, if the opportunity exists, we will do it.”
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George Russell describes his tense showdown with Max Verstappen for Azerbaijan GP victory
Depending on how Mercedes’ upgrades perform and how Red Bull fares on the more traditional circuits for the remainder of the season, it’s hard to say what Verstappen’s best chance of winning will be.
Las Vegas in November is very similar to Baku with low tire degradation and long runs, while Mexico City in October will be interesting due to its high altitude and which power units perform best at 2000m above sea level. In previous regulations, the Honda power unit was too strong at altitude.
Even if Verstappen is unable to win, he will be brave in the opening laps and Safety Car restarts, knowing he has nothing to lose against the Mercedes drivers.
Although Antonelli and Russell don’t need to beat Verstappen, they need to be careful when battling the Dutchman because, as he reminded us in Baku, he is relentless and never makes your life easy on the track.
Sky Sports F1 Live Schedule Bahrain Malaysia GP Schedule
Thursday 1 October
07:00: Drivers’ press conference
10.00am: Paddock uncut
Friday, October 2
5am: First GP practice in Bahrain (session starts at 5.30am)*
7.30: Press conference of the team bosses
8.45am: Second GP Practice in Bahrain (session starts at 9am)*
10.15: Show F1*
Saturday, October 3
5.15am: Bahrain GP Practice Three (session starts at 5.30am)*
08:00: Qualifying preparation for the GP in Bahrain*
09:00: BAHRAIN GP QUALIFICATION*
Sunday, October 4
6.30am: Grand Prix Sunday: Bahrain GP Preparation*
08:00: BAHRAIN Grand Prix*
10:00am: Checkered flag: Bahrain GP reaction*
*also on Sky Sports Main Event
Formula 1 heads to Malaysia for the first time since 2017 as it hosts the Bahrain Grand Prix at the Sepang International Circuit – watch live coverage from Friday morning live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime